Indicator Assessment

Glaciers

Indicator Assessment

Prod-ID: IND-95-en

Also known as: CLIM 007

Published 18 Mar 2014 Last modified 11 May 2021

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Topics: Climate change adaptation

This page was archived on 20 Dec 2016 with reason: Other (New version data-and-maps/indicators/glaciers-2/assessment was published)

The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume since 1850, with clear acceleration since the 1980s.
Glacier retreat is expected to continue in the future. The volume of European glaciers has been estimated to decline between 22 and 84 % compared to the current situation by 2100 under a moderate greenhouse gas forcing scenario and between 38 and 89% under a high forcing scenario.

Glacier retreat has contributed to global sea-level rise with about 0.8 mm per year in 2005-2009. It also affects freshwater supply and run off regimes, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. Furthermore it may cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.

Cumulative net mass balance of European glaciers

Chart

Data sources:

Cumulative specific net mass balance of European glaciers provided by World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS)

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Table

Data sources:

Cumulative specific net mass balance of European glaciers provided by World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS)

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Projected change in the volume of mountain glaciers and ice caps in European glaciated regions

Dashboard

Data sources:

Radić et al. (2013), DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7, IPCC (2013) provided by University of British Columbia (UBC)

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Past trends

A general loss of glacier mass has occurred in all European glacier regions except Norway (Figure 1). The Alps have lost between 50 and 80% of their ice mass since 1850, and individual glaciers have faced even greater losses [i]. Norwegian coastal glaciers were expanding and gaining mass up to the end of the 1990s due to increased winter snowfall on the north Atlantic coast; now these glaciers are also retreating [ii]. Some ice caps at higher elevations in north-eastern Svalbard seem to be increasing in thickness, but estimates for Svalbard as a whole show a declining mass balance [iii]. The centennial retreat of European glaciers is attributed primarily to increased summer temperatures. However, changes in winter precipitation, reduced glacier albedo due to the lack of summer snow fall and various other feedback processes, such as the increasing debris cover on the glacier, can influence the behaviour of glaciers, in particular on a regional and decadal scale.

The melting of glaciers is contributing to global sea level rise. For the period 2005-2009, the contribution was about 0.8 mm per year, which is significantly higher than the average of about 0.6 mm per year during the period 1971-2009 [iv].

Projections

The retreat of European glaciers is projected to continue throughout the 21^st century (Figure 2). One study estimates that the volume of European glaciers will decline between 22 and 84 % under a moderate greenhouse gas forcing scenario (RCP4.5) and between 38 and 89% under a high forcing scenario (RCP8.5) compared to the current situation (all European regions combined) [v]. The relative volume loss is largest in central Europe (83 ± 10 % for RCP4.5 and 95 ± 4 % for RCP8.5). In Norway nearly all smaller glaciers are projected to disappear and overall glacier area as well as volume may be reduced by about one third by 2100 even under the low SRES B2 emissions scenario [vi].

[i] World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) “Glacier Mass Balance Bulletin No. 12,” (2013) Zurich, Switzerland, 106 pp, publication based on database version:doi:10.5904/wgms-fog-2013-11; Michael Zemp et al., “Alpine Glaciers to Disappear within Decades?,” Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L13504, doi:10.1029/2006GL026319; Wilfried Haeberli et al. “Vanishing glaciers in the European Alps,” Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Scripta Varia 118 (2013): 1-9.

[ii] Liss M. Andreassen et al., “Glacier Mass-Balance and Length Variation in Norway,” Annals of Glaciology 42, no. 1 (August 1, 2005): 317–325, doi:10.3189/172756405781812826; Atle Nesje et al., “Norwegian Mountain Glaciers in the Past, Present and Future,” Global and Planetary Change 60, no. 1–2 (January 2008): 10–27, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.08.004.

[iii] Jonathan Bamber, “Anomalous Recent Growth of Part of a Large Arctic Ice Cap: Austfonna, Svalbard,” Geophysical Research Letters 31, no. 12 (2004), doi:10.1029/2004GL019667; Suzanne Bevan et al., “Positive Mass Balance during the Late 20th Century on Austfonna, Svalbard, Revealed Using Satellite Radar Interferometry,” Annals of Glaciology 46, no. 1 (October 1, 2007): 117–122, doi:10.3189/172756407782871477; Timothy D. James et al., “Observations of enhanced thinning in the upper reaches of Svalbard glaciers,” The Cryosphere 6 (2012): 1369-1381, doi:10.5194/tc-6-1369-2012; M. Xu et al., “Comparative studies of glacier mass balance and their climatic implications in Svalbard, Northern Scandinavia, and Southern Norway,” Environmental Earth Sciences 67 (2012): 1407–1414, doi: 10.1007/s12665-012-1585-3.

[iv] D. G. Vaughan et al., “Observations: Cryosphere,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis., ed. T. F. Stocker et al. (Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2013), Chapter 4, http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/.

[v] Valentina Radić et al., “Regional and Global Projections of Twenty-First Century Glacier Mass Changes in Response to Climate Scenarios from Global Climate Models,” Climate Dynamics (2013): 1–22, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7.

[vi] Nesje et al., “Norwegian Mountain Glaciers in the Past, Present and Future.”

Supporting information

Indicator definition

Cumulative specific net mass balance of European glaciers
Projected changes in the volume of all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the European glaciated regions

Units

Mass balance (m water equivalent)
Volume (km³)

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Glaciers are particularly sensitive to changes in the global climate because their surface temperature is close to the freezing/melting point. When the loss of ice, mainly from melting and calving in summer, is larger than the accumulation from snowfall in winter, the mass balance of the glacier turns negative and the glacier shrinks.

Glaciers are an important freshwater resource and act as ‘water towers’ for lower-lying regions. The water from melting glaciers contributes to water flow in rivers during summer months and thus helps maintain water levels for irrigation, hydropower production, cooling water and navigation. The effects of a reduction in glaciers are, however, complex and vary from location to location. Glacier melting also contributes to global sea-level rise.

Scientific references

OECD, 2007. Climate Change in the European Alps OECD publishing; Paris, France.
UNEP, 2008. Meltdown in the Mountains UNEP Zürich/ Nairobi.
IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.

The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.

Targets

No targets have been specified.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Various methods are used to estimate mass balances. A literature overview can be found under http://www.wgms.ch/literature.html .

Projections of volume changes are based on melt in response to transient, spatially differentiated twenty-first century projections of temperature and precipitation from ten global climate models.

Methodology for gap filling

Not applicable

Methodology references

Radić & Hock (2011): Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise Nature Geoscience 4 , 91–94 doi:10.1038/ngeo1052

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Not applicable

Data sets uncertainty

Data on the cryosphere vary significantly with regard to availability and quality. Snow and ice cover have been monitored globally since satellite measurements started in the 1970s. Improvements in technology allow for more detailed observations and higher resolution.

Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)