Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops (agrophenology) (CLIM 031) - Assessment published Sep 2008
Climate change (Primary topic)
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- CLIM 031
Key policy question: ..
- There is evidence that the flowering and maturity of several species in Europe now occurs two or three weeks earlier than in the past.
- The shortening of the phenological phases is expected to continue if temperatures continue to increase.
Modelled change of flowering date for winter wheat 1975-2007
Note: The day of the year of flowering has been simulated by using a crop growth model (CGMS Crop Growth Monitoring System).
MARS/STAT database (Genovese, 2004a, 2004b).
Potential alcohol level at harvest for Riesling in Alsace (France) 1972-2003
Note: The figure shows the potential alcohol level at harvest for Riesling in Alsace
Duchêne, E. and Schneider, C., 2005. Grapevine and climatic changes: a glance at the situation in Alsace. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 24: 93-99. The original data is property of CIVA: http://www.vinsalsace.com/fr/index.html.
Several studies have collected data and observed changes in the phenological phases of several perennial crops in Europe, such as the advance in the start of the growing season of fruit trees (2.3 days/10 years), cherry tree blossom (2.0 days/10 years), and apple tree blossom (2.2 days/10 years), in line with increases of up to 1.4 oC in mean annual air temperature in Germany (Chmielewski et al., 2004), and the advance of apricot and peach tree flowering by 1-3 weeks over the past 30 years for in France (Chuine et al., 2004).
Sowing or planting dates of several agricultural crops have been advanced, by 5 days for potatoes in Finland, 10 days for maize and sugar beet in Germany and 20 days for maize in France (IPCC, 2007).
Assuming that the warming trend will continue, further reductions in the number of days required for flower opening (anthesis) and maturity may be expected for areas in western Europe, where phenological changes are strongly accelerating (ECCE, 2005). However, the rate of the reduction of these phases may gradually decrease with a further increase in temperature due to a reduced efficiency of photosynthesis at high temperatures.
Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS (MARS)
provided by Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Grapevine and climatic change
provided by French National Institude for Agricultural Research (INRA)
More information about this indicator
See this indicator specification for more details.