Timing of the cycle of agricultural crops (agrophenology) (CLIM 031) - Assessment published Sep 2008

Justification for indicator selection

Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of responses to recent regional climate change (IPCC, 2007). Although phenological changes are often influenced by management practices and new farming technologies, recent warming in Europe has clearly advanced a significant part of the agricultural calendar. Specific stages of growth (e.g. flowering, grain filling) are particularly sensitive to weather conditions and critical for final yield. The timing of the crop cycle (agrophenology) determines the productive success of the crop. In general, a longer crop cycle is strongly correlated with higher yields, since a longer cycle permits maximum use of the available thermal energy, solar radiation and water resources. The impacts of unfavourable meteorological conditions and extreme events vary considerably, depending on the timing of occurrence and the development stage of the crops. However, shortening of the growth period can also help avoid summer stress conditions in areas prone to drought.
European farmers have already adapted their practices to the changing climate by selecting suitable varieties or adapting the crop calendar, and can be expected to do so increasingly in the future.

Scientific references:

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