Storms

Indicator Assessment
Prod-ID: IND-93-en
Also known as: CLIM 005
Created 17 Nov 2014 Published 17 Nov 2014 Last modified 04 Sep 2015, 07:00 PM
Topics: ,
Storm location, frequency and intensity show considerable decadal variability across Europe over the past century, such that no long-term trends are apparent. Recent studies on changes in winter storm tracks generally project an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track towards central Europe and the British isles, but this finding is not yet robust. Climate change simulations show diverging projections on changes in the number of winter storms across Europe. However, almost all studies agree that storm intensities will increase in the future for the North Atlantic, northern, northwestern and central Europe.

Key messages

  • Storm location, frequency and intensity show considerable decadal variability across Europe over the past century, such that no long-term trends are apparent.
  • Recent studies on changes in winter storm tracks generally project an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track towards central Europe and the British isles, but this finding is not yet robust.
  • Climate change simulations show diverging projections on changes in the number of winter storms across Europe. However, almost all studies agree that storm intensities will increase in the future for the North Atlantic, northern, northwestern and central Europe.

What is the trend in extreme wind speeds across Europe?

Projected changes in extreme wind speed based on GCM and RCM ensembles

Note: Ensemble mean of changes in extreme wind speed (defined as the 98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) for A1B (2071–2100) relative to 1961–2000. Left: based on 9 GCMs. Right: based on 11 RCMs. Coloured areas indicate the magnitude of change (unit: m/s), statistical significance above 0.95 is shown by black dots.

Data source:
Downloads and more info

Past trends

Studies of past changes in extra-tropical storms have used a variety of methods for analysing their activity in the storm track regions, making it difficult to compare the results of different studies or to assess if there is any underlying climate change signal. Storm location and intensity in Europe has shown considerable variation over the past century, but Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and intensity have likely shifted northwards since at least 1970 [i]. Wind data at the local or regional levels can show a series of decreases and increases continuing over several decades. Long records of wind speed for various regions across Europe indicate that storminess has not significantly changed over the past 200 years [ii]. They also indicate relatively high levels of storminess in north-western Europe during the 1880s, followed by below average conditions between the 1930s and 1960s, a pronounced increase in storminess until the mid-1990s, and average or below activity afterwards. Somewhat similar patterns were observed in other parts of Europe.

A single reanalysis study for the period 1871 to 2008 suggests an increasing trend in storminess across north-western Europe, with storminess towards the end of the 20th century reaching its highest values in the north-east North Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea region [iii]. Other studies have produced evidence that both conflicts and agrees with this result [iv]. As a result, there is low confidence in the robustness of the reanalysis results for extreme wind speeds before the middle of the 20th century [v].

Projections

The simulation of extra-tropical cyclones in climate models remains a scientific challenge in spite of significant recent progress in modelling techniques. Earlier model studies showed both poleward [vi] and equator-ward [vii] shifts in the Atlantic storm track. The latter could double the predicted increase in winter rainfall over western and central Europe compared to other climate projections. Recent simulations based on CMIP5 data project an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track towards central Europe and the British Isles [viii].

Modelling studies show diverging results on changes in the number of storms across Europe but they generally agree on increases in the strongest, most damaging storms, in most European regions. A recent study using a multi-model ensemble projects a small increase in the magnitude of the strongest winter storms over northern parts of central and western Europe, and a decrease in southern Europe, under a high emissions scenario (Figure 1) [ix]. A comprehensive review study covering the North Atlantic as well as northern, northwestern and central Europe shows large agreement that the intensity of winter storms will increase in all those regions in the future [x]. These results are largely consistent with those of a recent study based on the GCM projections underlying the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report but individual model simulations can diverge considerably [xi]. In summary, the risk of severe winter storms is projected to increase in many regions in Europe.



[i] U. Ulbrich, G.C. Leckebusch, and J.G. Pinto, ‘Extra-Tropical Cyclones in the Present and Future Climate: A Review’,Theoretical and Applied Climatology 96 (2009): 117–31, doi:10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8; Øystein Hov et al.,Extreme Weather Events in Europe: Preparing for Climate Change Adaptation (Oslo: Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 2013), http://www.dnva.no/binfil/download.php?tid=58783.

[ii] C Matulla et al., ‘European Storminess: Late Nineteenth Century to Present’,Climate Dynamics 31, no. 2–3 (2007): 125–30, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0333-y; F. Feser et al., ‘Storminess over the North Atlantic and Northwestern Europe-A Review: Storminess over the North Atlantic and Northwestern Europe-A Review’,Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, May 2014, n/a – n/a, doi:10.1002/qj.2364.

[iii] M. G. Donat et al., ‘Reanalysis Suggests Long-Term Upward Trend in European Storminess since 1871’, Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011), doi:10.1029/2011GL047995.

[iv] S. Brönnimann et al., ‘Extreme Winds at Northern Mid-Latitudes since 1871’,Meteorologische Zeitschrift 21, no. 1 (1 February 2012): 13–27, doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0337; X. L Wang et al., ‘Trends and Low-Frequency Variability of Storminess over Western Europe, 1878–2007.’,Climate Dynamics, 2011, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1107-0; Oliver Krueger et al., ‘Inconsistencies between Long-Term Trends in Storminess Derived from the 20CR Reanalysis and Observations’,Journal of Climate 26, no. 3 (February 2013): 868–74, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00309.1; Xiaolan L. Wang et al., ‘Is the Storminess in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Really Inconsistent with Observations? A Reply to the Comment by Krueger et Al. (2013b)’,Climate Dynamics 42, no. 3–4 (1 February 2014): 1113–25, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1828-3.

[v] D. L. Hartmann et al., ‘Observations: Atmosphere and Surface’, inClimate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. T. F. Stocker et al. (Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2013), Chapter 2, http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/; Feser et al., ‘Storminess over the North Atlantic and Northwestern Europe-A Review.’

[vi] G. Gastineau and B. J. Soden, ‘Model Projected Changes of Extreme Wind Events in Response to Global Warming’,Geophysical Research Letters 36, no. L10810 (2009), doi:10.1029/2009GL037500.

[vii] R McDonald, ‘Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Northern Hemisphere Extra-Tropical Cyclones’,Climate Dynamics 37 (2011): 1399–1425, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0916-x; Adam A. Scaife et al., ‘Climate Change Projections and Stratosphere–troposphere Interaction’,Climate Dynamics 38, no. 9–10 (27 May 2011): 2089–97, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7.

[viii] Giuseppe Zappa et al., ‘A Multimodel Assessment of Future Projections of North Atlantic and European Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Climate Models*’,Journal of Climate 26, no. 16 (2013): 5846–62, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1.

[ix] M. G. Donat et al., ‘Future Changes in European Winter Storm Losses and Extreme Wind Speeds Inferred from GCM and RCM Multi-Model Simulations’,Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 11, no. 5 (12 May 2011): 1351–70, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-1351-2011.

[x] Feser et al., ‘Storminess over the North Atlantic and Northwestern Europe-A Review.’

[xi] Zappa et al., ‘A Multimodel Assessment of Future Projections of North Atlantic and European Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Climate Models*’; S. D. Outten and I. Esau, ‘Extreme Winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models’,Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, no. 10 (22 May 2013): 5163–72, doi:10.5194/acp-13-5163-2013.

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

  • Projected changes in extreme wind speed (98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) based on GCM and RCM ensemble

Units

  • m/s

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.

The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.

Targets

No targets have been specified.

Related policy documents

  • Climate-ADAPT: Mainstreaming adaptation in EU sector policies
    Overview of EU sector policies in which mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change is ongoing or explored
  • Climate-ADAPT: National adaptation strategies
    Overview of activities of EEA member countries in preparing, developing and implementing adaptation strategies
  • DG CLIMA: Adaptation to climate change
    Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. It has been shown that well planned, early adaptation action saves money and lives later. This webportal provides information on all adaptation activities of the European Commission.
  • EU Adaptation Strategy Package
    In April 2013 the European Commission adopted an EU strategy on adaptation to climate change which has been welcomed by the EU Member States. The strategy aims to make Europe more climate-resilient. By taking a coherent approach and providing for improved coordination, it will enhance the preparedness and capacity of all governance levels to respond to the impacts of climate change.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Trends in the annual 95th percentile of daily maximum wind speeds in the 20th century reanalysis data set (ensemble mean) during the period 1871–2008. The trend is given in the units of the interannual standard deviation and plotted only when significant. Coloured circles indicate trends in the number of ‘gale days’ (an index that represents the number of extreme windy days) over the period at the specific locations.

Ensemble mean of changes in extreme wind speed (defined as the 98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) for A1B (2071–2100) relative to 1961–2000. Statistical significance above 0.95 is shown by black dots.

Methodology for gap filling

Not applicable

Methodology references

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Not applicable

Data sets uncertainty

A dense network of stations across the globe, and particularly in Europe, now provide regular monitoring of key atmospheric climate variables, using standardised measurements, quality control and homogeneity procedures at European level. However, even where sufficient data are available, several problems can limit their use for analysis. These problems are mainly connected with 1) limitations of distributing data in high spatial and temporal resolution by many countries, 2) unavailability of data in easy-to-use digital format, and lack of data homogeneity. The situation in Europe is improving since several EU-funded projects (such as ECA&D and EURO4M) have started to collect, digitalise and homogenise additional time series of the essential climate variables. In addition, EUMETNET  initiated an optional programme, EUMETGRID , which aims to develop and maintain a sustainable common data infrastructure for access to and distribution of gridded climate information in Europe and establish recommendations of best practices for establishing national and European gridded datasets.

Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sources

Generic metadata

Topics:

Climate change Climate change (Primary topic)

Tags:
europe | climate change | projection | wind speed
DPSIR: Impact
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • CLIM 005
Dynamic
Temporal coverage:
2071-2098
Geographic coverage:
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Hans-Martin Füssel

EEA Management Plan

2014 1.4.1 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Frequency of updates

Updates are scheduled every 4 years
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100