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Renewable electricity - outlook from EEA (Outlook 053) - Assessment published Jun 2007

Indicator Assessmentexpired Created 08 Jan 2007 Published 08 Jun 2007 Last modified 12 Nov 2013, 09:35 AM
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Contents
 

Indicator definition

Definition:

Renewable electricity is the ratio between the electricity produced from renewable energy sources and the gross national electricity consumption calculated for a calendar year. It is usually expressed as a percentage of the former to the latter. It measures the contribution of electricity produced from renewable energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal, wave, tidal, hydropower, biomass, landfill gas, sewage treatment plant gas and biogases) to the national electricity consumption.

Model used:
PRIMES

Ownership:
European Environment Agency

Temporal coverage:
1990 - 2030

Geographical coverage:

EU-25: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, Cyprus, Czech republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia

Units

Electricity generation is measured in terawatt hours (TWh).


Key policy question: Are we switching to renewable energy sources to meet our electricity consumption?

Key messages

The renewables share in gross power generation rises to 17.4% in 2010. This falls however short of the indicative target of the renewables electricity directive (21%) indicating that the measures implemented in the Member-States by the end of 2006 are not yet sufficient. In any case, the Baseline scenario shows a dynamic development in renewable penetration in electricity, as the renewable share in gross generation is projected to raise further to about 20% in 2020 and about 23% in 2030.

Electricity Generation by Fuel from 2000 to 2030, in EU 27

Note: N/A

Downloads and more info

Share of renewables in gross electricity generation, EU 27

Note: N/A

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

The structure of power generation changes significantly in favour of renewables, natural gas and solid fuels, whereas nuclear and oil lose market shares. The renewables share in gross power generation rises to 17.4% in 2010 - which falls however short of the indicative target of the renewables electricity directive - indicating that the measures implemented in the Member-States by the end of 2006 are not yet sufficient7 . In any case, the Baseline scenario shows a dynamic development in renewable penetration in electricity, as the renewable share in gross generation rises further to 20% in 2020 and
23% in 2030.

This development is clearly driven by the high growth rates of wind energy - especially in this decade; but growth rates are still impressing in coming decades. In total, wind energy in 2030 provides over 15 times as much electricity as was available from this source in 2000. In 2030, wind power is expected to produce almost as much electricity as hydro.

Biomass use for power generation also rises considerably; solar PV displays high growth rates from a small basis, while the additional contribution from hydro power is small as a result of limited additional potential and environmental restrictions.

Nuclear declines due to political decisions. The nuclear share falls from over 30% today to only 20% in 2030 despite considerable investment in new nuclear plants in countries without restrictions on nuclear. Overall, the share of indigenous and carbon free sources (renewables plus nuclear) decreases somewhat, from currently 45% it
reaches 43% at the end of the projection period.

The increasing electricity demand and to some extent the higher penetration of intermittent renewables require substantially higher power generation capacities.

The net capacity increase up to 2030 amounts to 227 GW, which corresponds to 31% of the present generation capacity. In addition, the power plants that will be closed over the next decades need to be replaced. The net increase of generation capacity concerns exclusively renewables and natural gas. Coal and lignite plants due for closure will be replaced with much more efficient ones strongly increasing solid fuel fired power generation. On the other hand, not all nuclear plants will be replaced with power stations of the same type at the end of their techno-economic or "political" lifetime8. This applies also for oil plants on economic grounds.

1  The comments received by the DG TREN from the Member States experts on the draft baseline suggested a downward revision of wind and hydro production especially for the short and medium term in several Member States.

Data sources

Policy context and targets

Context description

The indicator shows the trends in renewable electricity production. It can be useful to monitor  performances of the wide range of policies at pan-european and national level that attempt to influence energy consumption and energy efficiency, electricity generation, and, therefore, extent of environmental impacts.

Global policy context

The major documents that relate to trends of the energy production and electricity generation at the global level were developed and presented during the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg (WSSD,2002) in Agenda 21. WSSD, 2002 aims to achieve a sustainable energy future, including diversified energy sources using cleaner technologies. Moreover, there is a number of sub-negotiations and declarations concerning more sustainable ratio in balance between a global energy supply and production of different energy types, as well as more sustainable electricity generation.

Pan-European policy context

The recent pan-european policies concerning different aspects of energy production and electricity generation have been developed under different international fora. 

The Committee on Sustainable Energy seeks to reform energy prices and subsidies and ways how to carry out it to meet more sustainable energy production and consumption in the region  (UNECE Guidelines).

Kiev Declaration "Environment for Europe" (2003) aims at supporting further efforts to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy production to meet environmental objectives.

EU policy context

On 23 January 2008 the European Commission adopted the 'Climate Action and Renewable Energy' package. The Package sets a number of targets for EU member states with the ambition to achieve the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times including: GHG reduction of 20% compared to 1990 by 2020. (under a satisfactory global climate agreement this could be scaled up to a 30% reduction); 20% reduction in energy consumption through improved energy efficiency, an increase in renewable energy's share to 20% and a 10% share for sustainably produced biofuels and other renewable fuels in transport. With these goals in mind, each Member State will by June 30th 2010 submit a National Renewable Energy Action Plan to the Commission.

EECCA policy context

Energy efficiency and energy trade, and, consequently, energy and electricity productions are highlighted in the EECCA Environment Strategy. Moreover, there are negotiations concerning decisions about improvements in hydropower sector in Central Asia (Cooperation Strategy in Asia, 2004).

Targets

The Renewable electricity generation indicator is implemented  for a wide range of structural and quantitative targets in  different regional levels.

 Global level

  • Implement energy strategies for Sustainable Development, including diversified energy sources for energy production and electricity generation using cleaner technologies (WSSD)

Pan-European level

  • Increase the share of renewable sources in energy production (Kiev Declaration)
  • Reforming energy prices and subsidies to achieve more sustainable energy production and electricity generation (UNECE Guidelines)

EU level

  • ncrease the share of renewables in its overall energy mix to 20%, including a 10% biofuel target for transport by 2020 'Climate Action and Renewable Energy' package
  • The EU indicative Combined Heat and Power target set in the Community Strategy on cogeneration to promote Combined Heat and Power, COM(97) 514final, of an 18% share of CHP electricity production in total gross electricity production by 2010.

EECCA level

  • Repair, modernise and/or decommission obsolete or accident-prone equipment at hydropower facilities (Cooperation Strategy to promote Rational and Efficient Use of Energy Resources in Central Asia)
  •  Energy Trade for more efficient energy production (EECCA Strategy)

Links to other policy

EECCA Environmental Strategy

UNECE Guidelines

Cooperation Strategy to Promote the Rational and Efficient Use of Water and Energy Resources in Central Asia (2004)

Related policy documents

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

The indicator of the Final energy consumption is produced using the PRIMES model. The model covers the horizon from 1990 to 2030 with 5 years periods. A fundamental assumption in PRIMES is that producers and consumers both respond to changes in prices.

Overview of the PRIMES Model

PRIMES is a partial equilibrium model for the European Union energy system developed by, and maintained at, The National Technical University of Athens, E3M-Laboratory. The most recent version of the model used in the calculations covers each of the EU Member States, EU candidate countries and Neighbouring countries, uses Eurostat as the main data source, and is updated with 2000 as the base year. The PRIMES model is the result of collaborative research under a series of projects supported by the Joule programme of the Directorate General for Research of the European Commission.

The model determines the equilibrium by finding the prices of each energy form such that the quantity producers find best to supply match the quantity consumers wish to use. The equilibrium is static (within each time period) but repeated in a time-forward path, under dynamic relationships. The model is behavioural but also represents in an explicit and detailed way the available energy demand and supply technologies and pollution abatement technologies. It reflects considerations about market economics, industry structure, energy/environmental policies and regulation. These are conceived so as to influence the market behaviour of energy system agents. The modular structure of PRIMES reflects a distribution of decision-making among agents that decide individually about their supply, demand, combined supply and demand, and prices. Then the market-integrating part of PRIMES simulates market clearing. PRIMES is a general purpose model. It conceived for forecasting, scenario construction and policy impact analysis. It covers a medium to long-term horizon. It is modular and allows either for a unified model use or for partial use of modules to support specific energy studies.

For more information see:http://www/e3mlab.ntua.gr/manuals/PRIMESld.pdf; http://www/e3mlab.ntua.gr/ and http://www.e3mlab.ntua.gr/DEFAULT.HTM

Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sets uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Generic metadata

Topics:

Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

Energy Energy

Tags:
renewable energy | energy | forward looking indicators | electricity generation
DPSIR: Response
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 053
Geographic coverage:
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100