Passenger transport demand

Indicator Assessment
Prod-ID: IND-35-en
Also known as: CSI 035 , TERM 012
Created 28 Sep 2016 Published 01 Dec 2016 Last modified 01 Dec 2016, 10:03 AM
Topics: ,
Passenger transport demand in the EU-28 increased by 1.8 % between 2013 and 2014, after an overall downward trend since its peak in 2009. Car passenger travel remains the dominant transport mode accounting for well over 70 % of total transport. Air transport demand grew by 4 % in 2014 and has a modal share of 9 % (the same as before the economic recession). Rail passenger travel is stable, accounting for 6.5 % of transport demand in 2014. Land- based  passenger transport demand also grew in the other EEA member countries. Growth in 2014 compared with the previous year was 5.1 % in Iceland , 3.2 % in Norway,  3.1 % in Turkey and 1.8 % in Switzerland .

Key messages

  • Passenger transport demand in the EU-28 increased by 1.8 % between 2013 and 2014, after an overall downward trend since its peak in 2009. Car passenger travel remains the dominant transport mode accounting for well over 70 % of total transport. Air transport demand grew by 4 % in 2014 and has a modal share of 9 % (the same as before the economic recession). Rail passenger travel is stable, accounting for 6.5 % of transport demand in 2014.
  • Land-based passenger transport demand also grew in the other EEA member countries. Growth in 2014 compared with the previous year was 5.1 % in Iceland , 3.2 % in Norway, 3.1 % in Turkey and 1.8 % in Switzerland.

Is passenger transport demand being decoupled from economic growth?

Passenger transport volume and modal split

EU-28
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Passenger transport demand in the EU-28, measured in passenger-kilometres (pkm), experienced a sustained period of robust growth until 2005 for all modes. Since its peak in 2009 (9 % higher than in 2000), it has remained broadly stable, with only a slight overall reduction being seen as a result of the economic recession from 2008 onwards. In 2014, total passenger demand was 10.5 % higher than in 2000, exceeding the 2009 peak by 1.5 %.  

Since 2000, passenger transport volumes (in pkm) across the different modes have changed as follows:

  • Passenger cars: +9 %;
  • Powered two-wheelers: +18 %;
  • Buses and coaches: –4 %;
  • Railways: +15 %;
  • Trams and metro: +26 %;
  • Aviation: +32 %;
  • Sea: –10 %.

In absolute terms, passenger cars account for most of the overall increase in passenger transport volumes since 2000, followed by aviation and railways. Since 2000, the EU population has grown by 4 %, less than the 10.5 % growth in passenger transport. Car mobility peaked in the EU-15 in 2009, when most EU-15 Member States reached 'peak car' travel values.

In most EU-13 Member States, per capita car travel keeps growing. The same is true in some non-EU countries such as Turkey, which experienced high growth of around 47 % between 2009 and 2014. 

Rail passenger traffic volumes since 2008 have dropped significantly in many countries owing to the economic crisis, historic decline, or both. Traffic loss has been particularly high in many eastern European Member States, as well as in certain western countries such as Italy and Portugal. In contrast, rail demand between 2008 and 2014 has continued to grow in a few EU-15 countries, in some cases by 10 % or more. This includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom. Trends in passenger demand for high-speed rail are difficult to assess, as traffic growth trends are, not surprisingly, greatly influenced by the opening of new services over the past decades. Nevertheless, it seems that its share of total rail passenger traffic is increasing in certain countries such as Italy, while in others it peaked in 2010 (France and Spain) or earlier (Belgium, Portugal and Sweden).

Air transport, including flights within the EU-28, has varied substantially since 2000. Although it grew rapidly between 2000 and 2007, air transport traffic was particularly affected by the economic crisis; traffic fell by 6.8 % in 2009. Whereas traditional airlines were particularly badly affected by the recession, low-cost airlines have grown every year since 2008. Their growth has helped to drive overall growth in the aviation sector since 2009, with air pkm increasing and reaching their highest level in 2014.

Trends in inland passenger transport demand and gross domestic product (GDP) have decreased in intensity (pkm/EUR) since the mid 1990s, with the exception of 2009. In 2009, the sharp reduction in GDP in the EEA-33 was associated with a slight increase in transport volumes compared with previous years, suggesting that passenger transport demand reacts less (and more slowly) to changes in GDP than freight does.

Is public transport increasing as a proportion of total passenger transport?

Passenger transport modal split

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Table
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Restrictions on data availability mean that modal split analysis, including of air transport, is limited to the EU-28. Modal share trends have remained largely stable in the EU-28 in recent decades. Since 1995, air transport (including flights within the EU) has steadily increased from 6.5 % of total transport in 1995 to 9.2 % in 2014, while land transport modes have decreased. As a proportion of total transport, car transport has remained almost constant, decreasing from only 73.3 % in 1995 to 72.3 % in 2014, after peaking at 74 % in 2002, 2003 and 2009. Rail transport retained a similar market share in 2014 compared with 1995 (6.5 %), after a slow but continuous recovery from its low of 5.9 % in 2003 and 2004. The market share for bus and coach transport has continued to decrease at a very slow rate, from 9.4 % in 1995 to 8 % in 2014. There has been a steady trend in the EU-13 towards convergence with EU-15–average modal split values, mainly reflected in the rapid growth of car transport compared with other modes.

There is no comprehensive EU-wide data on cycling and other forms of non-motorised passenger transport. Various efforts have been made to improve the rates of non-motorised transport in the EU, and estimates of the varying importance of cycling across EU Member States are available in the report Quality of transport (Special Eurobarometer 422a). On average, 8 % of respondents to the Eurobarometer survey mention cycling as the most important mode of travel on a typical day. This ranges from cycling rates of 1 % or less in Cyprus, Malta and Portugal to 36 % in the Netherlands.

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

'Passenger transport demand' is defined as the number of pkm travelled every year in a country or group of countries. Inland passenger transport includes transport by passenger car, bus and coach and train.

'Modal split' is defined as the proportion of total pkm allocated to different transport modes every year.

The 'decoupling indicator' is defined as the annual changes in the ratio of pkm (inland modes) to GDP (in constant prices) growth. 

 

Units

The unit used to express passenger transport volume is the passenger-kilometre (pkm), which represents one passenger travelling a distance of 1 km. It is based on transport by car, bus and coach and train. 

Gross domestic product (GDP) is expressed in constant euros, indexed to the year 2005.

Passenger transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2005 = 100). The ratio of the former to the latter is indexed to the year t 1 (i.e. annual decoupling/intensity changes) in order to observe changes in the annual intensity of passenger transport demand relative to economic growth (GDP). For the oldest indicators (i.e. before 2010), passenger transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2000 = 100).


Policy context and targets

Context description

The EU has set itself the objective of decoupling economic growth from passenger transport demand in order to create a more sustainable transport system. This decoupling has been a central theme in EU transport policy and is intended to minimise the negative impacts of transport.

Targets

In this indicator, the policy target to significantly decouple transport growth from GDP growth in order to reduce the negative environmental effects of transport and congestion is considered.

Related policy documents

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

In order to measure the decoupling of passenger demand from economic growth, the volume of passenger transport relative to GDP (i.e. the intensity) is calculated.

Methodology for gap filling

No need for gap filling

Methodology references

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

To understand whether or not passenger demand is being decoupled from economic growth, the intensity of passenger transport demand relative to changes in real GDP is analysed. A reduction in intensity should signal the relative decoupling of transport demand from economic growth.

A decoupling indicator analyses pressures on the environment with changes in the relevant economical variables, to which the environmental pressures are causally linked. This indicator compares the growth in pkm as a proxy of the pressures on the environment caused by transport. It is considered a good proxy; however, it is known to be inaccurate as pkm values in isolation do not fully explain the environmental pressures. 

 

Data sets uncertainty

Figures on pkm travelled by air are available as an EU-28 aggregate only. Air pkm are a provisional estimate for domestic flights and flights between EU countries. Figures for car, bus and rail travel are available separately for all EU-28 Member States. The sources used by the European Commission (DG-MOVE) include national statistics, estimates, the International Transport Forum and Eurostat.

Rationale uncertainty

Even if two countries have the same passenger transport intensity, or show the same trend over time, there could be important environmental differences between them. The link to environmental impact has to be complemented on the basis of the energy consumption and fuels used to satisfy passenger demand, and the technology used, in addition to the new infrastructure-related impacts.

Data sources

Generic metadata

Topics:

DPSIR: Driving force
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • CSI 035
  • TERM 012
Temporal coverage:
,

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Diana Vedlugaite

EEA Management Plan

2016 1.1.2 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Frequency of updates

Updates are scheduled once per year
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100