Passenger transport demand - outlook from EEA
The volume of transportation of passengers is projected to increase at a rate of 1.4% per year, between 2005 and 2030. In comparison to past trends, the scenario shows a slowdown in the rate of increase of activity. Forecasts predict a gradual decoupling of transportation activity from GDP growth, a trend which is expected to be more accentuated in the long term.
Is there a trend of decoupling of passenger transport demand from economic growth?
Fig.1. Passenger transport activity increase in comparison to GDP growth in EU 27, 1990-2030
The Baseline scenario of transportation activity, which includes details about flows of transportation between and within the EU Member-States, shows a gradual decoupling of transportation activity from GDP growth. This trend, which is more accentuated in the long term, is a combined result of productivity gains in transportation and certain saturation effects. The volume of transportation of passengers is projected to increase at a rate of 1.4% per year, between 2005 and 2030 In comparison to past trends, the scenario includes a slowdown in the rate of increase of activity.
As regards passenger transport the slowdown is related to the stability of EU-27 population and to a longer-term trend which involves lowering the long-term income-elasticity of transportation reflecting saturation. More specifically, energy related transport activity per capita is projected to reach 17908 km per annum in 2030 up from 12769 km per annum in 2005.
This considerable increase of transportation of passengers (42% higher in 25 years) is accompanied by changes in transport modes towards using faster means, such as fast trains and aviation, a trend which keeps the average time spent by person on transportation in this scenario within a realistic range.
Is the share of passanger car transport in total inland transport being reduced relative to other transport modes?
Fig 2. Modal split of passenger transport in EU 27, 1990-2030
The projections in the baseline scenario show domination of transportation by cars and motorcycles and also show a noticeable growth of air transport. Aviation for passenger transport has been the fastest growing mode of transport in the recent past, driven by rising real incomes, the increased willingness to pay for leisure, the globalisation process and the liberalisation of the air transport market. Aviation activity is projected to grow at a rate of 3.1% per year in 2005-2030. The need for more long distance travel facilitated by high speed of air travel is expected to drive this rapid growth, despite the increase in air transport prices due to high oil prices. By 2030 the market share of aviation in passenger transport activity is projected to reach 12.2% in 2030, up from 8.1% in 2005.
Rail transport activity, which exhibited a decline between 1990 and 2005, is projected to display acceleration of growth from 2015 onwards (+1.6% pa in 2005-2030) as a result of new and upgraded infrastructure projects facilitating networks of high train speeds. In 2030 passenger rail activity is projected to account for 7.5% of total activity (+0.4 percentage points up from its level in 2005, +0.6 percentage points up from 2015 level).
On the contrary the shares of the other modes, such as public road transport (+0.6% per year growth in 2005- 2030), private cars and motorcycles (+1.3% pa) and inland navigation23 (+0.4% pa), are projected to slightly decline over the projection period. By 2030 road transport activity is projected to account for 79.7% of total activity down from 84.0% in 2005.
Indicator specification and metadata
Definition: Passenger transport demand is the total number of kilometres travelled by persons in a given year by all modes of transport (taxis, buses, trolleybuses, trams, underground, trains, inland water transport, maritime transport and airplanes) and by private transport. It can also be presented as a breakdown of total passenger transport demand by mode (modal split: the share of each mode in total transport demand).
Model used: PRIMES
Ownership: European Environment Agency
Temporal coverage: 1990 - 2030
Geographical coverage: EU25: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, Cyprus, Czech republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia
The volume of the passenger transport is measured in the passenger-kilometre traveled (pkm), which represents one passenger traveling a distance of one kilometre.
Policy context and targets
Pan-European policy context
The large number of non binding policy instruments have been developed under fora such as Environment for Europe process, the European Council of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) and the UNECE/WTO Transport, Health and Environment Pan-European Programme (The PEP). The PEP was set up to address the key challenges to achieve more sustainable transport patterns and a closer integration of environmental and health concerns into transport policies.
EU policy context
The EU has set itself the objective to reduce the link between economic growth and passenger transport demand ('decoupling') in order to achieve more sustainable transport.
Reducing the link between transport growth and GDP is a central theme in EU transport policy for reducing the negative impacts from transport:
- The objective of decoupling passenger transport demand from GDP was first mentioned in the Transport & Environment (T&E) integration strategy that was adopted by the Council of ministers in Helsinki. Here, the expected growth in transport demand was named as an area where urgent action was needed. In the sustainable development strategy that was adopted by the European Council in Gothenburg, the objective of decoupling is set in order to reduce congestion and other negative side-effects of transport.
- In the review of the T&E integration strategy in 2001 and 2002, the Council reaffirmed the objective of reducing the link between the growth of transport and GDP.
- In the Sixth Community Environmental Action Programme, decoupling of economic growth and transport demand is named as one of the key objectives in order to deal with climate change and to alleviate health impacts from transport in urban areas.
Shifting transport from road to rail is an important strategic element in the EU transport policy. The objective was first formulated in the Sustainable Development Strategy (SDS). In the review of the T&E integration strategy in 2001 and 2002, the Council states that the modal split should remain stable for at least the next ten years, even with further traffic growth.
In the White Paper on the Common Transport Policy (CTP) "European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide", the modal shift is central and the Commission proposes measures aimed at the modal shift.
The White Paper on the Common Transport Policy also says that common transport policy alone will not provide all the answers. It must be part of an overall strategy integrating sustainable development, to include: a) economic policy and changes in the production process that influence demand for transport; b) land-use planning policy and in particular town planning; c) social and education policy; d) urban transport policy; e) budgetary and fiscal policy to, to link the internalisation of external, and especial environmental, costs with competition of trans-European network; f) competition policy, to ensure, in line with the objectives of high-quality public services, and in particularly in rail sector, that the opening-up of market is not harmed by the dominant companies already present on market; g) research policy for transport in Europe.
The European Neighbourhood Policy stressed that generating more trade and tourism between the Union and its neighbours, requires efficient, multimodal and sustainable transport systems. EU should develop an Actions plan for cooperation with its neighbors to improve the physical transport networks connecting the Union with neighboring countries, to step up aviation relations with partner countries with the aim to open up markets and to co-operate on safety and security issues. The Action Plans will also contain specific provisions to address the vulnerability of transport networks and services vis-A-vis terrorist attacks. The highest attention will be paid to enhance the security of air and maritime transport.
EECCA policy context
EECCA Environmental Strategy recognizes the need to incorporate environmental concerns into transport policies and sets this action as one of the Strategy objectives.
One of the actions selected by THE PEP is 'demand side management and modal shift and with special attention to the needs of the countries of Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA) and of South-Eastern Europe, as well as issues related to ecologically particularly sensitive areas'.
Structural goals and targets
- Implement transport strategies for sustainable development (WSSD)
- High-quality urban public transport and safe alternative transport (2002UNECE/WHO Transport, Health and Environment Pan-European Programme)
- A switch to more efficient and cleaner forms of transport including better organisation and logistics" ( '6EAP')
- Motorways of the Sea: operating by 2010 (TEN)
- To increase railway passenger share from 6 to 10% by 2020 (COM 2001/370)
- "...a shift in transport use from road to rail, water and public passenger transport ... [so] the share of road transport in 2010 is no greater than in 1998" (EU Sust.Dev. Strategy, 2001)
- introducation of incentives for sustainable transport, including public transport (EECCA Strategy)
- modernization of transportation facilities, including use of less energy intensive transport modes (EECCA Strategy)
- Decouple transport growth significantly from GDP (6th EAP)
- "... emphasis on demand management" (EECCA Strategy)
Link to other policy goals and targets
- '...develop transport infrastructure further through ... networks, better trafic management ... An intermodal approach' (ECMT, Council of Ministers, 1997)
- Noise from transport no longer presents a health concern (reference policy document?)
- 140g CO2 average passenger car fleet emissions by 2008
- 120g CO2 by 2012 (EC/industry agreement)
- '..give priority to infrustructure investments for public transport and railways...' (EU Sust.Dev.Strategy, 2001)
- Open up rail markets and support new rail infrastructure
- '...Link sea, inland water and rail transport...' (COM 2001/370)
- Extention of pan-European transport corridors to neighbouring areas (2004 Santiago de Compostela Conference)
- Develop and implement national transport strategies for sustainable development to: improve affordability, efficiency, convenience, GHG emissions, urban air quality, health. (EECCA Strategy)
Related policy documents
COM (2001) 264 final
A sustainable Europe for a better world: A European Union strategy for sustainable development. Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. COM (2001) 264 final.
COM (2001) 370 final. European transport policy for 2010.
WHITE PAPER European transport policy for 2010: time to decideCOM (2001) 370 final
Presidency conclusions of the Cardiff European Council, 15 June 1998
Presidency conclusions of the Cardiff European Council, 15 June 1998
Sixth Environment Action Programme
DECISION No 1600/2002/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 22 July 2002 laying down the Sixth Community Environment Action Programme
The EU's Strategy for Sustainable Development
Commission of the European Communities CEC (2001b): A Sustainable Europe for a Better World: A European Union Strategy for Sustainable Development (Commission's proposal to the Gothenburg European Council), COM (2001)264 final, Brussels, 15.5.2001
World Summit on Sustainable Development Plan of Implementation
UN 2002: 'Plan of Implementation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development'
Methodology for indicator calculation
The indicator of the Passenger transport activity is produced using the transport module of PRIMES model. The model covers the horizon from 1990 to 2030 with 5 years periods.
Overview of the PRIMES Model
PRIMES is a partial equilibrium model for the European Union energy system developed by, and maintained at, The National Technical University of Athens, E3M-Laboratory. The most recent version of the model used in the calculations covers each of the EU Member States, EU candidate countries and Neighbouring countries, uses Eurostat as the main data source, and is updated with 2000 as the base year. The PRIMES model is the result of collaborative research under a series of projects supported by the Joule programme of the Directorate General for Research of the European Commission.
The transport module of PRIMES has been developed to study mainly the penetration of new transport technologies and their effects on emissions, besides the evaluation of the energy consumption and emissions in the transport sector. The emphasis is on the use of car technologies and on the long term (2030). The model structure is kept deliberately simple as it is made to interact as demand module with supply modules (refineries, new fuel production) of PRIMES.
The transport sector distinguishes passenger transport and goods transport as separate sectors. They are further subdivided in sub-sectors according to the transport mode (road, air, etc.). At the level of the sub-sectors, the model structure defines several technology types (car technology types, for example), which correspond to the level of energy use.
The overall demand for transport (passenger kilometres, ton kilometres) is determined by income/activity growth and by the overall price of transport. The overall price of transport is determined endogenously, as a function of the modal split and of the price per mode. The split of the overall transport activity over the different modes is driven by the price per mode and by behavioural and structural parameters. The price per mode depends on the choice of technology for new investment and on past investment for each transport mode. The technologies for new investment are chosen, based on the lowest expected usage costs.
The stock of vehicles inherited from the previous period is expanded in function of the transport needs per mode. The new stock composition determines the stock for the next period and influences the aggregate price per mode.
For more information see:
Methodology for gap filling
No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.
No methodology references available.
No uncertainty has been specified
Data sets uncertainty
No uncertainty has been specified
The relevance of the modal split policy for environmental impact of passenger transport arises from differences in environmental performance (resource consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, pollutant and noise emissions, land consumption, accidents etc.) of transport modes. These differences are becoming smaller on a passenger-km basis, which makes it increasingly difficult to determine the direct and future overall environmental effects of modal shifting. The total environmental effect of modal shifting can in fact only be determined on a case-by-case basis, where local circumstances and specific local environmental effects can be taken into account (e.g. transport in urban areas or over long distances).
Input data to PRIMES - macro-economic data: demographics, antional accounts, sectoral activity and income variables - output from EUROSTAT data
Input data to PRIMES model - structure of energy consumtpion and structure of activity variables - output from EUROSTAT data
Output data from PRIMES - Passenger transport activity - output from PRIMES model
provided by Directorate-General for Energy and Transport
Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
- Outlook 054
Contacts and ownership
EEA Contact InfoAnita Pirc Velkavrh
EEA Management Plan2010 (note: EEA internal system)
For references, please go to www.eea.europa.eu/soer or scan the QR code.
This briefing is part of the EEA's report The European Environment - State and Outlook 2015. The EEA is an official agency of the EU, tasked with providing information on Europe’s environment.
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