Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets (CSI 011/CLIM 051) - Assessment published Nov 2005
Climate change (Primary topic)
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- CSI 011
- CLIM 051
Key policy question: What progress is made towards the greenhouse gas emissions targets by the EU?
Relative gaps between GHG projections and 2010 targets, based on existing and additional domestic policies and measures, and changes by the use of Kyoto mechanisms
Actual and projected EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions compared with Kyoto target for 2008-12
Actual and projected greenhouse gas emissions aggregated for new Member States
Note: Past GHG emissions include the eight new Member States which have Kyoto target (not Cyprus and Malta)
- For the EU-15, aggregate projections of total GHG emissions for 2010 based on existing  domestic policies and measures show a small fall to 1.6 % below base-year levels. This means that the current emission reduction of 1.7 % achieved by 2003 compared with the base-year level is projected to stabilise by 2010. This development, assuming only existing domestic policies and measures, leads to a shortfall of 6.4 % in meeting the EU's Kyoto commitment of an 8 % reduction in emissions in 2010 from base-year levels.
- The use of Kyoto mechanisms by Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Spain, for which quantitative effects have been approved by the Commission in the EU emission trading scheme, would reduce the EU-15 gap by a further 2.5 %. This would lead to a shortfall of 3.9 % for the EU-15 with the combination of existing domestic measures and the use of Kyoto mechanisms.
- Savings from additional policies and measures being planned by Member States would result in total EU-15 emission reductions of about 6.8 % from 1990, still not sufficient to meet the shortfall for the EU-15 projected on existing domestic policies and measures. Combined with use of Kyoto mechanisms this would lead to a reduction of 9.3 %, sufficient to meet the EU-15 Kyoto target.
- Sweden and the United Kingdom project that their existing domestic policies and measures will be sufficient to meet their burden-sharing targets. These Member States may even over-deliver on their targets. Emissions in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain are all projected to be significantly above their commitments on the basis of their existing domestic measures. The relative gaps range from more than 30 % for Spain to about 1 % for Germany.
- By using the Kyoto mechanisms combined with existing domestic measures, Luxembourg would meet its targets. By using the mechanisms combined with additional measures, Austria, Belgium, Finland and the Netherlands, would meet their targets.
- Regarding the new Member States, all 'with existing measures' projections, except for Slovenia, result in emissions in 2010 being lower than the Kyoto commitments. Slovenia's Kyoto target can be met by additional measures and accounting for carbon sinks from LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry).
- Regarding other EEA countries, Iceland and the EU candidate countries Bulgaria and Romania will over-achieve their Kyoto targets while Norway and Liechtenstein will fall short with existing domestic policies and measures.
 A 'with existing domestic measures' projection encompasses currently implemented and adopted policies and measures.
Specific policy question: What progress is projected by sector towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2010?
EU-15 greenhouse gas past emissions and emission projections (energy sector excluding transport)
EU-15 greenhouse gas past emissions and emission projections (transport sector)
EU-15 greenhouse gas past emissions and emission projections (agriculture sector)
EU-15 greenhouse gas past emissions and emission projections (industral processes)
EU-15 greenhouse gas past emissions and emission projections (waste sector)
- Total GHG emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in power plants and other sectors (e.g. households and services; industry) excluding the transport sector (60 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions) are projected to stabilise at 2003 level (or 3 % below 1990 level) by 2010 with existing measures and to decrease to 9% below 1990 levels with additional measures.
Total GHG emissions from transport (21 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions) are projected to increase to 31 % above 1990 levels by 2010 with existing measures and to be 22 % above 1990 levels with additional measures.
Total GHG emissions from agriculture (10 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions) are projected to decrease to 13 % below 1990 levels by 2010 with existing measures and 15% below 1990 levels with additional measures.
Total GHG emissions from industrial processes (6 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions) are projected to be 4 % below base-year levels by 2010 with existing measures and 20 % below with additional measures.
GHG emissions from waste management (2 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions) are projected to decrease to 52 % below 1990 levels by 2010 with existing measures.
National projections, policies and measures
provided by Directorate-General for Environment (DG ENV)
Deliveries for Projections and national programmes
provided by European Environment Agency (EEA)
More information about this indicator
See this indicator specification for more details.
Contacts and ownership
EEA Contact InfoFrançois Dejean
EEA Management Plan2010 (note: EEA internal system)
Frequency of updates
For references, please go to www.eea.europa.eu/soer or scan the QR code.
This briefing is part of the EEA's report The European Environment - State and Outlook 2015. The EEA is an official agency of the EU, tasked with providing information on Europe’s environment.
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