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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets / Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets (CSI 011/CLIM 051) - Assessment published Nov 2005

Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets (CSI 011/CLIM 051) - Assessment published Nov 2005

Indicator Assessment Created 19 May 2005 Published 29 Nov 2005 Last modified 21 Oct 2013, 03:14 PM
Topics: ,

Generic metadata

Topics:

Climate change Climate change (Primary topic)

Tags:
climate | csi | air
DPSIR: Pressure
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • CSI 011
  • CLIM 051
Geographic coverage:
Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
 
Contents
 

Indicator definition

This indicator illustrates the projected trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in relation to the EU and Member State targets, using existing policies and measures and/or additional policies and/or use of Kyoto mechanisms. The greenhouse gases are those covered by the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, HFCs and PFCs), weighed by their respective global warming potential, aggregated and presented in CO2-equivalent units.

Units

Million tonnes in CO2-equivalent


Key policy question: What progress is made towards the greenhouse gas emissions targets by the EU?

Key messages

  • The aggregate projections for the EU-15 for 2010, based on existing domestic policies and measures, show emissions falling to 1.6 % below base-year levels.  This leaves a shortfall of 6.4 % to reach the EU's Kyoto commitment of an 8 % reduction in emissions in 2010 compared with base-year levels.
  • Savings from additional measures being planned would result in emission reductions of 6.8 %, still not sufficient to meet the target. The use of Kyoto mechanisms by various Member States would reduce emissions by a further 2.5%, leading to total reductions of 9.3 %, sufficient to reach the EU-15 target. This would, however, rely on over-delivery by some Member States.
  • Almost all new Member States project that existing domestic measures will be sufficient to meet their Kyoto targets in 2010. Slovenia plans additional measures (including the use of carbon sinks) to help meet its target. Regarding other EEA countries, Iceland and the EU candidate countries Bulgaria and Romania are on track to achieving their Kyoto targets while Norway and Liechtenstein will, with existing domestic policies and measures, fall short of theirs.

Relative gaps between GHG projections and 2010 targets, based on existing and additional domestic policies and measures, and changes by the use of Kyoto mechanisms

Note: N/A

Data source:

ETC/ACC 2005

Downloads and more info

Actual and projected EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions compared with Kyoto target for 2008-12

Note: N/A

Data source:

ETC/ACC 2005

Downloads and more info

Actual and projected greenhouse gas emissions aggregated for new Member States

Note: Past GHG emissions include the eight new Member States which have Kyoto target (not Cyprus and Malta)

Data source:

ETC/ACC 2005

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

  • For the EU-15, aggregate projections of total GHG emissions for 2010 based on existing [1] domestic policies and measures show a small fall to 1.6 % below base-year levels. This means that the current emission reduction of 1.7 % achieved by 2003 compared with the base-year level is projected to stabilise by 2010. This development, assuming only existing domestic policies and measures, leads to a shortfall of 6.4 % in meeting the EU's Kyoto commitment of an 8 % reduction in emissions in 2010 from base-year levels.
  • The use of Kyoto mechanisms by Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Spain, for which quantitative effects have been approved by the Commission in the EU emission trading scheme, would reduce the EU-15 gap by a further 2.5 %. This would lead to a shortfall of 3.9 % for the EU-15 with the combination of existing domestic measures and the use of Kyoto mechanisms.
  • Savings from additional policies and measures being planned by Member States would result in total EU-15 emission reductions of about 6.8 % from 1990, still not sufficient to meet the shortfall for the EU-15 projected on existing domestic policies and measures. Combined with use of Kyoto mechanisms this would lead to a reduction of 9.3 %, sufficient to meet the EU-15 Kyoto target.
  • Sweden and the United Kingdom project that their existing domestic policies and measures will be sufficient to meet their burden-sharing targets. These Member States may even over-deliver on their targets. Emissions in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain are all projected to be significantly above their commitments on the basis of their existing domestic measures. The relative gaps range from more than 30 % for Spain to about 1 % for Germany.
  • By using the Kyoto mechanisms combined with existing domestic measures, Luxembourg would meet its targets. By using the mechanisms combined with additional measures, Austria, Belgium, Finland and the Netherlands, would meet their targets.
  • Regarding the new Member States, all 'with existing measures' projections, except for Slovenia, result in emissions in 2010 being lower than the Kyoto commitments. Slovenia's Kyoto target can be met by additional measures and accounting for carbon sinks from LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry).
  • Regarding other EEA countries, Iceland and the EU candidate countries Bulgaria and Romania will over-achieve their Kyoto targets while Norway and Liechtenstein will fall short with existing domestic policies and measures.
    [1] A 'with existing domestic measures' projection encompasses currently implemented and adopted policies and measures.

Specific policy question: What progress is projected by sector towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2010?

EU-15 greenhouse gas past emissions and emission projections (energy sector excluding transport)

Note: N/A

Data source:

ETC/ACC 2005

Downloads and more info

EU-15 greenhouse gas past emissions and emission projections (transport sector)

Note: N/A

Data source:

ETC/ACC 2005

Downloads and more info

EU-15 greenhouse gas past emissions and emission projections (agriculture sector)

Note: N/A

Data source:

ETC/ACC 2005

Downloads and more info

EU-15 greenhouse gas past emissions and emission projections (industral processes)

Note: N/A

Data source:

ETC/ACC 2005

Downloads and more info

EU-15 greenhouse gas past emissions and emission projections (waste sector)

Note: N/A

Data source:

ETC/ACC 2005

Downloads and more info

Specific assessment

  • Total GHG emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in power plants and other sectors (e.g. households and services; industry) excluding the transport sector (60 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions) are projected to stabilise at 2003 level (or 3 % below 1990 level) by 2010 with existing measures and to decrease to 9% below 1990 levels with additional measures.
  • Total GHG emissions from transport (21 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions) are projected to increase to 31 % above 1990 levels by 2010 with existing measures and to be 22 % above 1990 levels with additional measures.
  • Total GHG emissions from agriculture (10 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions) are projected to decrease to 13 % below 1990 levels by 2010 with existing measures and 15% below 1990 levels with additional measures.
  • Total GHG emissions from industrial processes (6 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions) are projected to be 4 % below base-year levels by 2010 with existing measures and 20 % below with additional measures.
  • GHG emissions from waste management (2 % of total EU-15 GHG emissions) are projected to decrease to 52 % below 1990 levels by 2010 with existing measures.

Data sources

Policy context and targets

Context description

The indicator is aimed to support the Commission's annual progress assessment of the EU and the Member States reduction of emissions towards achieving the Kyoto Protocol target under the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (Council Decision 280/2004/EC)

Targets

For the EU-15 Member States, the targets are those set out in Council Decision 2002/358EC in which Member States agreed that some countries be allowed to increase their emissions, within limits, provided these are offset by reductions in others.

The EU-15 Kyoto Protocol target for 2008-2012 is a reduction of 8 % from 1990 levels for the basket of six greenhouse gases. For the new Member States, the candidate countries and other EEA member countries, the targets are included in the Kyoto Protocol.

Overview of national Kyoto targets (reduction from base year levels):

Kyoto Target 2008-2012

Austria

-13%

Belgium

-7.5%

Bulgaria

-8.0%

Croatia

-5.0%

Czech Republic

-8.0%

Cyprus

-

Denmark

-21.0%

Estonia

-8.0%

Finland

0%

France

0%

Germany

-21.0%

Greece

+25.0%

Hungary

-6.0%

Iceland

-10.0%

Ireland

+13.0%

Italy

-8.0%

Latvia

-8.0%

Liechtenstein

-8.0%

Lithuania

-8.0%

Luxembourg

-28.0%

Malta

-

Netherlands

-6.0%

Norway

1.0%

Poland

-6.0%

Portugal

+27.0%

Romania

-8.0%

Slovakia

-8.0%

Slovenia

-8.0%

Spain

+15.0%

Sweden

+4.0%

Turkey

-

United Kingdom

-12.5%

15 old EU Member States (EU15)

-8.0%

In 2007, the EU committed to a unilateral 20% GHG reduction target, which corresponds to a 14% decrease in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2020. The EU Climate and Energy Package adopted in 2009 sets a legislative framework to achieve this objective in a two-fold way: a 21% reduction of emissions covered under the EU ETS compared to 2005 levels, to be achieved across the whole EU, and an effort to reduce emissions not covered by the EU ETS by about 10% compared to 2005 levels, shared between the EU 27 Member States through differentiated national GHG targets under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD).

Related policy documents

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Projected progress calculates the gap between emission projections and the Kyoto target. Two types of projections are considered:

  1. projections with existing domestic policies and measures
  2. projections with existing and additional domestic policies and measures, including projected use of Kyoto Mechanisms and effects of carbon sinks.

Further detail available in the latest EEA report on ‘Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012-Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets’.

Methodology for gap filling

Further detail available in EEA report on ‘Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012’.

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

The methodology proposed consists in simple additions of data reported by Member States. However, uncertainty arises from the following:

  • projections can be subject to updates which might not be reflected in the assessment if these updates were recently made;
  • the projections taken into account are fully consistent with MS submissions under the Monitoring Mechanism. However, other sets of projections with different data might have been published by countries (e.g. national allocation plans, national communications to UNFCCC).

Data sets uncertainty

Uncertainties in the projections of GHG emissions can be significant but have not been assessed. Several countries carry out sensitivity anaylses on their projections.

Rationale uncertainty

Not relevant.

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

François Dejean

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Frequency of updates

Updates are scheduled once per year
Filed under: , ,

Comments

European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100