Global and European temperature - EEA (Outlook 021) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
- Outlook 021
Key policy question: Will the increase in global average temperature stay within the EU policy target of not more than 2 degrees Celsius (C) above pre-industrial levels, and will the rate of increase in global average temperature stay within the proposed target of not more than 0.2 degree C per decade?
The annual average temperature for Europe is projected to increase by 1.0-5.5 °C (comparing 2080-2100 with the 1961-1990 average). The warming is projected to be greatest over eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the Arctic in winter (December to February), and over south-western and Mediterranean Europe in summer (June to August) (Giorgi et al., 2004; IPCC, 2007a).
Modelled change in mean temperature over Europe between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099
Note: Left: annual; middle: winter (DJF); right: summer (JJA) changes in oC for the IPCC-SRES A1B emission scenario averaged over 21 models (MMD-A1B simulations).
Christensen, J. H.; Hewitson, B.; Busuioc, A.; Chen, A.; Gao, X.; Held, I.; Jones, R.; Kolli, R. K.; Kwon, W.-T.; Laprise, R.; Magaña Rueda, V.; Mearns, L.; Menéndez, C. G.; Räisänen, J.; Rinke, A.; Sarr, A. and Whetton, P., 2007. Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K. B.; Tignor, M. and Miller, H. L. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
The global and European average temperature is projected to continue to increase. Globally, the projected increase in this century is between 1.8 and 4.0 °C (best estimate), and is considered likely (66 % probability) to be between 1.1 and 6.4 °C for the six IPCC SRES scenarios and multiple climate models (see Chapter 4 of EEA Report No 4/2008), comparing the 2080-2100 average with the 1980-1999 average. These scenarios assume that no additional policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions are implemented (IPCC, 2007a). The range results from the uncertainties in future socio-economic development and in climate models. The EU "sustainable" target of limiting global average warming to not more than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial level is projected to be exceeded between 2040 and 2060, for the all six IPCC scenarios.
The annual average temperature for Europe is projected to increase by 1.0-5.5 °C (comparing 2080-2100 with the 1961-1990 average). This range takes into account the uncertainties in future socio-economic development by including two of the IPCC-SRES scenarios (the high emissions A2 and the medium emissions A1b), and the uncertainties in the climate models (Christensen et al., 2007) (Map 5.2). The warming is projected to be greatest over eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the Arctic in winter (December to February), and over south-western and Mediterranean Europe in summer (June to August) (Giorgi et al., 2004; IPCC, 2007a). The temperature rise in parts of France and the Iberian Peninsula may exceed 6 °C, while the Arctic could become on average 6 °C and possibly 8 °C warmer than the 1961-1990 average (IPCC, 2007a, 2007b; ACIA, 2004).
Input data to IMAGE 2.2. UDCM model - atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and emissions of SO2 - output from TCM, OMC and ACM
Output data from IMAGE 2.2. UDCM model - Global-mean surface temperature change and temperature change of the ocean
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