Global and European temperature - EEA (Outlook 021) - Assessment published Jun 2009
Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B – Does it matter?)
- Outlook 021
Key policy question: Will the increase in global average temperature stay within the EU policy target of not more than 2 degrees Celsius (C) above pre-industrial levels, and will the rate of increase in global average temperature stay within the proposed target of not more than 0.2 degree C per decade?
By 2100, global temperature change is expected to be well above the long-term sustainable objective set in the 6th EAP (bearing in mind the inherent scientific and analytical uncertainty characterising the assessment of climate change impacts).
Baseline climate change outlookThe projected increase in global temperature above the pre-industrial level between 2000 and 2100 is about 3.1 C (see Figure 4.2). This is well above the long-term sustainable objective of a maximum of 2 C set in the 6th EAP: this is, of course, due to both European GHG emissions and non-European emissions which, for example, represent more than 90 % of global emissions in 2050. Within Europe, the highest warming is expected for the southern and north-eastern parts.
The low GHG emissions scenarioBased on the definition of the scenario (the EU long-term sustainable objective of not more than 2 C increase over pre-industrial levels, set in the 6th EAP) (117) global temperature over the 2000-2100 period is expected to reach 1.9 C over the pre-industrial level. This is about 1.2 C lower than in the baseline scenario. Within Europe, the avoided temperature increase is expected to be the largest in the south-west. In terms of global GHGs concentration, the scenario leads to a stabilisation at about 550 ppm CO2 eq. by 2100 (see Box 3.4), which is about 40 % lower than in the baseline scenario.
Specific policy question:
Global temperature change 2000-2100
EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change: National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) + Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 2003-2004. Dataset: PRIMES model (LREM project) + FAIR/IMAGE models
Input data to IMAGE 2.2. UDCM model - atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and emissions of SO2 - output from TCM, OMC and ACM
Output data from IMAGE 2.2. UDCM model - Global-mean surface temperature change and temperature change of the ocean
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