GHG emissions - outlook from IEA (Outlook 036) - Assessment published Jun 2009
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Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- Outlook 036
Key policy question: What is the projected progress in GHG emissions reduction?
Global energy-related emissions of CO2*, the largest contributor to total GHG emissions, are projected to increase by 29 % up to 2030. China is expected to be the main engine for this growth. In terms of energy-related emissions per capita, Russia will be come close to the current largest emitter, the US.
However, if countries were to adopt all the energy security and energy-saving policies that they are currently considering to tackle CO2 emissions**, total emissions avoided by 2030 could equal more than the current emissions of the US and Canada combined (or 16 % of the 2030 emissions in the IEA reference scenario), and energy-related CO2 emissions in OECD Europe in 2030 could be less than today's level.
Outlook FACTS AND FIGURES to 2030
- In terms of total energy-related CO2 emissions, China is expected to overtake the US before 2010.
- Energy-related CO2 emissions per capita (which form 90% of total CO2 emissions per capita) are expected to increase in all regions. The most striking growth from 2004 to 2030 is projected for China, doubling to 7 tonne per capita, to approach OECD Europe (8 tonne) in 2030, and for India where there is a projected increase of 75 %.
- The US is expected to stabilise its per capita energy-related CO2 emissions at about 20 tonne per capita, still the highest in the world. Russia, with a 47 % increase from 2004 to 2030 (15 tonne in 2030), is projected to approach the US.
- With additional policies and technical measures ** it would be possible to avoid 6.3 Gtonnes of global CO2 emissions in 2030. Emissions in OECD Europe in 2030 could be less than today's level. Improved end-use efficiency of electricity and fossil fuels would account for two-thirds of the avoided emissions in 2030, the rest coming from increased use of less carbon-intensive sources.
*Projections are based on the IEA reference case scenario, which takes into account government policies enacted and adopted by mid-2006, even though many of them have not been fully implemented. Possible, potential or even unlikely future measures are not considered. The reference scenario is based on the UNSTAT projections of population growth (world average growth of 1 % per year for 2004-2030) and OECD and International Monetary Fund projections for economic development (world average growth 3.4 % per year for 2004-2030). It is assumed that energy-supply and energy use technologies become steadily more efficient, though at varying speeds for each fuel and each sector, depending on the potential for efficiency gains and the stage of technology development and commercialisation. New policies - excluded from the Reference scenario - would be needed to accelerate deployment of more efficient and cleaner technologies.
** IEA Alternative policy scenario of the WEO 2006 analyses the situation if countries were to adopt all the energy security and energy policies they are currently considering. These include efforts to improve efficiency in energy production and use, increase reliance on non-fossil fuels and sustain the domestic supply of oil and gas within net energy importing countries.
Specific policy question:
Input data to WEO model - technological developments
Input data to WEO model - fuel prices
Input data to WEO model - population
Input data to WEO model - economic growth
Input data to WEO model - electricity consumption
Input data to WEO model - electricity prices
Input data to WEO model - primary demand for fossil fuels
Outlook from WEO - CO2 emissions
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