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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / GHG Concentrations - outlook from MNP / GHG Concentrations - outlook from MNP (Outlook 019) - Assessment published Jun 2007

GHG Concentrations - outlook from MNP (Outlook 019) - Assessment published Jun 2007

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Generic metadata

Topics:

Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

Tags:
forward looking indicators | greenhouse gases
DPSIR: State
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 019
Geographical coverage:

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Contents
 

Key policy question: What is the trend in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere?

Key messages

Under the IPCC scenarios the overall concentration of the six Kyoto gasses is projected to increase up to 638-1360 ppm CO2-equivalent by 2100, whereas the concentration of all GHGs may increase up to 608-1535 ppm CO2-equivalent.  The global atmospheric GHG concentration of 450 ppm CO2-equivalent may be exceeded between 2015 and 2030.

Global concentration change 2000-2100

Note: N/A

Data source:

EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change: National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) + Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 2003-2004. Dataset: PRIMES model (LREM project) + FAIR/IMAGE models.

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

 The IPCC (2001, 2007a) showed various projected future greenhouse gas concentrations for the 21st century, varying due to a range of scenarios of socio-economic, technological and demographic developments (see Table 1). These scenarios assume no implementation of specific climate-driven policy measures. Under these scenarios, the overall concentration of the six Kyoto gasses is projected to increase up to 638-1360 ppm CO2-equivalent by 2100, whereas the concentration of all GHGs (incl. aerosols) may increase up to 608-1535 ppm CO2-equivalent by 2100.
The IPCC projections show that a global atmospheric GHG concentration of 450 ppm may exceeded between 2010-2015 (in case of Kyoto gasses only) or between 2020-2030 (all GHGs). A level of 550 ppm CO2-equivalent may become exceeded a decade later (Figure: on the figure are presented only baseline scenario and low emissions scenario). Substantial global emission reductions are therefore needed to remain below these targets or return back to these levels after an overshoot.

Table: Projected changes in atmospheric GHG concentration (considering either Kyoto gasses only or all GHGs)

 

           

 

A1B

A1T

A1FI

A2

B1

B2

Kyoto only

2020

489

478

484

484

475

470

 

2050

645

613

707

653

571

575

 

2100

877

722

1360

1196

638

800

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

all GHGs

2020

416

442

417

407

416

432

 

2050

605

622

686

575

515

555

 

2100

861

717

1535

1256

608

808

Source: IPCC, 2001, 2007a

  1Defined as >95% probability (IPCC, 2007)

  22008 concentration levels are yet not available for the other greenhouse gasses. 

Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Document Actions
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100