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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / Freight transport demand - outlook from WBCSD / Freight transport demand - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 027) - Assessment published Jun 2007

Freight transport demand - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 027) - Assessment published Jun 2007

This content has been archived on 12 Nov 2013, reason: Content not regularly updated
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Generic metadata

Topics:

Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

Transport Transport

Tags:
modal split | transport modes | freight | transport
DPSIR: Driving force
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 027
Geographic coverage:
Albania Armenia Austria Azerbaijan Belarus Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Canada China Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Georgia Germany Greece Hungary Iceland India Ireland Italy Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macedonia (FYR) Malta Moldova Montenegro Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Serbia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Tajikistan Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Kingdom United States Uzbekistan
 
Contents
 

Key policy question: Is there in Europe a trend of decoupling of freight transport demand from economic growth?

Key messages

If present policies and technological trends continue (a), freight transport is projected to continue to grow worldwide. In the Pan-European region the most significant growth is expected in Eastern Europe, while worldwide a more rapid increase is projected in the fast-growing economies of China and India.

 

Worldwide road transport is expected to grow faster than rail transport. This is expected to lead to substantial shifts of the modal split of freight transport towards less sustainable modes.

 

a) Projections are based on the reference case scenario. The reference case projects one possible set of future conditions, based on recent trends. Adjustments are made for expected deviations from recent trends due to factors such as existing policies, population projections (UNSTAT), income projections (IEA) and expected availability of new technologies. Expectations of other future changes in trends, such as saturation of vehicle ownership, are also incorporated. In general, no major new policies are assumed to be implemented beyond those already implemented in 2003, and no major technological breakthroughs (www.wbcsd.org/web/publications/mobility/smp-model-document.pdf).

Projections of total freight transport activity from 2000 to 2050

Note: N/A

Data source:

WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2004. The Sustainable Mobility Project 2030. Available at /www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/ D4x4mJCw0t7TFqTwpwtA/WBSCD4pp_English.pdf.

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Freight transport modal split in 2000 and projected split in 2050

Note: N/A

Data source:

WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2004. The Sustainable Mobility Project 2030. Available at /www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/ D4x4mJCw0t7TFqTwpwtA/WBSCD4pp_English.pdf.

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Projected percentage change in freight transport by mode from 2000 to 2050

Note: N/A

Data source:

WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2004. The Sustainable Mobility Project 2030. Available at /www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/ D4x4mJCw0t7TFqTwpwtA/WBSCD4pp_English.pdf.

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Key assessment

In terms of modal shifts, road is projected to be the fastest-growing freight transport mode in all world regions (ranging from an 824 % increase in China to 109 % in OECD Europe) resulting in a decrease in theshare of rail transport. OECD

-Europe currently has the smallest share of rail in total freight transport and itsshare is expected to drop from 11 % in 2000 to 9.5 % in 2050. In EECCA countries (i.e. the Former Soviet

Union) rail is projected to remain the dominant mode of freight transport; however its share also drops, from 88 % in 2000 to 82 % in 2050. The most significant decrease in the share of rail in freight transport inthe pan-European region is expected to be in Eastern Europe, falling from 63 % in 2000 to 50 % in 2050. Similar trends are expected in other parts of the world.

Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Comments

European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100