Fertilizer consumption - outlook from EEA (Outlook 023) - Assessment published Jun 2007
Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
- Outlook 023
Key policy question: Are we using fertilizers in a more sustainable way?
Mineral fertilizer use is expected to increase considerably in the new Member States, but remains lower than in the EU-15 in absolute terms; this may lead to increases in associated environmental pressures. Best practices for fertilizer handling could significantly reduce the environmental pressures.
Projections of fertilizer consumption
European environment outlook, EEA Report No 4/2005
The following developments are expected for use of fertilizers:
- Considerable increases are projected for mineral fertilizer consumption in the New-8 over the next 20 years. The use of nitrogen (N) mineral fertilizers, which represents abut 60% of total mineral fertilizer use in 2020, is expected to increase by about 35% over this period, while phosphate (P) and potassium (K) use increases by about 52% and 41% respectively.
- This contrasts sharply with the EU-15 situation where the use of mineral fertilizers is expected to stay fairly stable to 2020.
This mainly reflects the differences between the EU-15 and the New-8 in terms of increases in application rates and yields.
- The use of mineral fertilizers per ha is also expected to increase significantly by 2020 (38%, 55% and 44% for N, P and K respectively).
However, despite yield increases, it remains significantly lower in the New-8 than in the EU-15 in 2020 (13% for N at 64.5 kg/ha, 10% for P at 20.5 kg/ha and 23% for K at 21 kg/ha). In contrast, the use of organic supply on crops is expected to decrease slightly over the period; in 2020, it represents about 36% and 27% of total fertilizer use in the EU-15 and New-8 respectively.
Input to CAPSIM model - population growth - output ffom EUROSTAT population data
Input to CAPSIM model - GDP growth - output from EUROSTAT data base
Input to CAPSIM model - household expenditure - output from EUROSTAT data base
Input to CAPSIM model - Euro/USD exchange rate - output from DG AGRI
Input to CAPSIM model - forecast assumptions for baseline scenario - output from DG AGRI
Input to CAPSIM model - forecast trends - output from FAPRI model
provided by Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
Input to CAPSIM model - forecest trends - output from IFPRI model
provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Input to CAPSIM - forecast trends - output from FAO
provided by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Output from CAPSIM - fertiliser use (Eurostat)
provided by Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat)
More information about this indicator
See this indicator specification for more details.
Contacts and ownership
EEA Contact InfoAnita Pirc Velkavrh
EEA Management Plan2010 (note: EEA internal system)
For references, please go to www.eea.europa.eu/soer or scan the QR code.
This briefing is part of the EEA's report The European Environment - State and Outlook 2015. The EEA is an official agency of the EU, tasked with providing information on Europe’s environment.
PDF generated on 29 Jan 2015, 04:40 PM