Fertilizer consumption - outlook from EEA (Outlook 023) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B – Does it matter?)
- Outlook 023
Key policy question: Are we using fertilizers in a more sustainable way?
Mineral fertilizer use is expected to increase considerably in the new Member States, but remains lower than in the EU-15 in absolute terms; this may lead to increases in associated environmental pressures. Best practices for fertilizer handling could significantly reduce the environmental pressures.
Projections of fertilizer consumption
European environment outlook, EEA Report No 4/2005
The following developments are expected for use of fertilizers:
- Considerable increases are projected for mineral fertilizer consumption in the New-8 over the next 20 years. The use of nitrogen (N) mineral fertilizers, which represents abut 60% of total mineral fertilizer use in 2020, is expected to increase by about 35% over this period, while phosphate (P) and potassium (K) use increases by about 52% and 41% respectively.
- This contrasts sharply with the EU-15 situation where the use of mineral fertilizers is expected to stay fairly stable to 2020.
This mainly reflects the differences between the EU-15 and the New-8 in terms of increases in application rates and yields.
- The use of mineral fertilizers per ha is also expected to increase significantly by 2020 (38%, 55% and 44% for N, P and K respectively).
However, despite yield increases, it remains significantly lower in the New-8 than in the EU-15 in 2020 (13% for N at 64.5 kg/ha, 10% for P at 20.5 kg/ha and 23% for K at 21 kg/ha). In contrast, the use of organic supply on crops is expected to decrease slightly over the period; in 2020, it represents about 36% and 27% of total fertilizer use in the EU-15 and New-8 respectively.
Input to CAPSIM model - population growth - output ffom EUROSTAT population data
Input to CAPSIM model - GDP growth - output from EUROSTAT data base
Input to CAPSIM model - household expenditure - output from EUROSTAT data base
Input to CAPSIM model - Euro/USD exchange rate - output from DG AGRI
Input to CAPSIM model - forecast assumptions for baseline scenario - output from DG AGRI
Input to CAPSIM model - forecast trends - output from FAPRI model
provided by Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
Input to CAPSIM model - forecest trends - output from IFPRI model
provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Input to CAPSIM - forecast trends - output from FAO
provided by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Output from CAPSIM - fertiliser use (Eurostat)
provided by Eurostat - Statistical Office of the European Union (ESTAT)
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