Emissions of primary particulates - outlook from LRTAP (Outlook 007) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A – What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- Outlook 007
Key policy question: What are prospects in reducing emissions of PM across Europe?
On the basis of existing policies and measures, emissions of PM and secondary particulate precursors (PM10 and PM2.5) of land-based air pollutants are expected to decline significantly (by 38% for PM10 and by 46% for PM2.5) up to 2030. Hence, the EU as a whole is expected to comply with the 2010 targets of the national emission ceilings directive. However, while a number of Member States are well below their binding upper national emission ceilings, others are not on track.
The implementation of all feasible technical measures (best available technologies) is estimated to offer a considerable potential for further reductions in the emissions.
Emissions of primary particulates (Baseline and MTFR scenarios, index 100 in 2000)
EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) + Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no), 2003-2004. Dataset: RAINS model.
The outlook assesses the European air emissions of PM and secondary particulate precursors expected over the 2000-2030 period for the baseline and the maximum technically feasible reductions scenarios (MTFR).
The following developments are expected:
- The baseline scenario projects future emissions of PM10 and PM2.5 to decrease further, although much more slowly than in the last decade. By 2030, PM10 and PM2.5 emissions are projected to be reduced by 38% and 46% respectively compared with 2000 levels. The EU-15 represents slightly more than 80% of the total PM10 and PM2.5 emissions.
- The MTFR scenario suggests that the potential for reduction in 2030 is about 46% for PM10 and 50% for PM2.5 compared with the baseline.
- In 2000, 70% of EU emissions of PM10 originated from four sectors: non-industrial combustion plants (28%), road transport (16%), production processes (15%) and combustion in energy industries (11%); 73% of EU emissions of PM2.5 in 2000 stemmed from the following sectors: non-industrial combustion plants (35%), road transport (18%), non-road mobile sources (11%), production processes (10%), and combustion in energy industries (9%).
- In the MTFR scenario, the shares of non-industrial combustion and energy industries in PM10 are expected to decrease to 12% and 3% respectively. With regard to PM2.5, non-road mobile sources and non-industrial combustion plants are expected to represent 21% and 4% respectively.
- Although strict standards have been imposed on exhaust PM emissions from transport sources, total emissions from transport will not decrease proportionally to the stringency of the standards. This because non-exhaust emissions (tyre and brake wear, which remain uncontrolled) will increase proportionally to traffic volume.
- International emissions from shipping are expected to increase considerably in the baseline scenario: emissions of PM10 and PM2.5 are projected to more than double. In 2030, shipping PM10 and PM2.5 emissions are expected to represent 30% and 45% respectively to land based emissions.
The main reason of the decreasing amount of PM10 and PM2.5 emissions of land-based air pollutants appeared from the implementations of the strict standards and controls required by the accessed EU emission sectoral legislation and accordingly to the main policy, which addressed air pollution issues in Europe, the National emission ceilings directive. There is no clear description of reason for shipping transport emissions.
*this assessment is based on the results of the RAINS model (a predecessor to the GAINS model) and published in the EEA Publication 'European Environmental Outlook 2005'.
Input data for RAINS model - Heat values of fuels
Input data for RAINS model - Ash content of solid fuels
Input data for RAINS model - Fuel-sector combinations
Input data for RAINS model - Ash retention in boilers
Input data for RAINS model - Shares of PM in TSP
Input data for RAINS model - Removal efficiencies
Input data for RAINS model - Emission factors
Output data from RAINS model - Emissions of PM10, PM2,5
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