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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / Crop-yield variability / Crop-yield variability (CLIM 032) - Assessment published Sep 2008

Crop-yield variability (CLIM 032) - Assessment published Sep 2008

Topics: ,

Update planned for November 2012

Generic metadata

Topics:

Climate change Climate change (Primary topic)

Tags:
climate change | climate | agriculture | global warming
DPSIR: Impact
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • CLIM 032
Dynamic
Temporal coverage:
2008
Geographic coverage:
Europe Switzerland
 
Contents
 

Key policy question: ..

Key messages

  • Climate and its variability are largely responsible for variations in crop suitability and productivity in Europe.
  • Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of 2007.
  • As a consequence of climatic change, such events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, and crop yields to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land management can act as risk-mitigating measures.

Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat

Note: A small increase in temperature has a positive impact on cereals yield, while a high increase (3-5 oC) has a negative impact

Data source:

Easterling, W. E.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Batima, P.; Brander, K. M.; Erda, L.; Howden, S. M.; Kirilenko, A.; Morton, J.; Soussana, J.-F.; Schmidhuber, J. and Tubiello, F. N., 2007. Food, fibre and forest products. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry, M. L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J. P.; van der Linden, P. J. and Hanson, C. E. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 273-313.

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

Past trends

While the area under arable cultivation in most of western Europe has decreased over the past 40 years, crop yields have increased almost continuously (Eurostat). This trend has persisted into the 21st century, although crop-yield variability increased as a consequence of several extreme meteorological events in short succession: a late frost in 2003 followed by a severe drought reduced cereal yields over most of Europe, a drought in 2005 severely affected western Europe (Iberian Peninsula), and an early drought in 2006 was followed by extreme rains during the summer, resulting in lower cereal production, especially in eastern Europe (EC, MARS Bulletins, 2008). Alexander et al. (2006) found a general increase in the intensity of precipitation events observed at the global level. For the Mediterranean area, where climate vulnerability is high, several studies found an increasing trend towards more intense precipitation and a decrease in total precipitation (Alpert et al., 2002; Maheras et al., 2004; Brunetti et al., 2004). In general, it is difficult to separate the climate effects from those of improved agricultural techniques in the development of historic crop yields. Adaptive management is expected to continue to help reduce the risks to agricultural yields from climate change, and to make better use of opportunities.

Projections

The effects on agricultural yields of increasing mean daily temperatures depend on their magnitude and geographic extent. The production areas of some crops could expand northwards in Europe, e.g. for maize. With an increase in mean annual temperature of 2 oC, cereal yields are expected to increase, partly because of the fertilisation effect of the increase in CO2 (Parry et al., 2004). However, an increase of 4 oC or more will shorten the crop cycle and the CO2 effect will not compensate for the resulting loss of yield. Crop yields are also at risk from more intensive precipitation and prolonged periods of drought, particularly in areas bordering the Mediterranean basin. Figure 1 shows the sensitivity of maize and wheat yields to climate change, as derived from the results of 69 published studies. These span a range of precipitation changes and CO2 concentrations, and vary in how they represent future changes in climate variability. Responses include cases without adaptation (red dots) and with adaptation (dark green dots). Adaptation represented in these studies includes changes in planting dates and crop varieties, and shifts from rain-fed to irrigated conditions.

Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Hans-Martin Füssel

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2008 2.3.1 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100