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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / Change in species diversity as a result of climate change - outlook from EEA / Change in species diversity as a result of climate change - outlook from EEA (Outlook 004) - Assessment published Jun 2007

Change in species diversity as a result of climate change - outlook from EEA (Outlook 004) - Assessment published Jun 2007

This content has been archived on 11 Nov 2013, reason: Content not regularly updated
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Generic metadata

Topics:

Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

Biodiversity Biodiversity

Climate change Climate change

Tags:
plants | climate | forward looking indicators | species
DPSIR: Impact
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 004
Geographical coverage:

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Contents
 

Key policy question: What are trends in biodiversity?

Key messages

Significant changes in the distribution of plant species in Europe are expected by 2100 due to increase of global temperature by about 3.10C. Such temperature increase going to be well above the long-term sustainable objective set in the 6th EAP. The Southwestern part and the most Eastern part (Russia) of Europe may suffer the highest changes in biodiversity; the loss of species might exceed 50 % by 2050. By 2100 most European Member States are expected to lose more than 50 species compared with the 1995 situation.

Impact of climate change on number of plant species, 2100

Note: N/A

Data source:

EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change: National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) + Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 2003-2004. Dataset: IMAGE/EuroMove models

Downloads and more info

Impact of climate change on number of plant species (in 2100 under the 'Low GHG emissions' scenario)

Note: N/A

Data source:

EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change: National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) + Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 2003-2004. Dataset: IMAGE/EuroMove models.

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

Human consumption of food, energy, and timber leads to emissions to the atmosphere, shifts in land use and cover, and changes in the fluxes of gases from the terrestrial environment influences global climate. This significantly influences biodiversity and plant distribution. Related factors include recreation growth, intensification of agricultural production, use of natural resources, and introduction of non-indigenous species.

The outlook assesses the effects on ecosystem composition in terms of the number of plant species. The following trends are expected for the plant species diversity:

 

  • In 2010 the Europe will not change considerably as a result of climate change. In most parts of Northern and Western Europe the percentage of stable species is between 80 and 100 % indicating stability. In parts of the Iberian Peninsula, France and Eastern Europe the percentage of stable species is less than 80 %, which may indicate a loss of biodiversity ( from description sheet of Euromove).
  • The change of biodiversity between 1990 and 2050 is very pronounced. In large parts of Europe less than 80 % of the species will remain at the same locations. The Southwestern part and the most Eastern part (Russia) of Europe may suffer the highest changes in biodiversity; the loss of species might exceed 50 %. The biodiversity in the Northern part of Europe (Scandinavia), the Eastern part of Middle Europe (Poland) and Ireland and Scotland remains more or less stable during that period. The percentage of stable species in Western Europe is between 65 and 80 %. (from description sheet of Euromove)
  • By 2100 (except CIS): significant changes in the distribution of plant species in Europe are expected during the century, particularly in the south-east. Most European Member States are expected to lose more than 50 species compared with the 1995 situation. The Scandinavian and Baltic countries are expected to gain significant numbers of new species, probably, as a result of higher temperatures and precipitation resulting from climate change. However, the pattern of the number of species gained is not expected to clearly follow the geographical location of countries and associated climates. (from EEA outlook)

Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Document Actions
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100