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You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / Car ownership - outlook from WBCSD / Car ownership - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 056) - Assessment published Jun 2007

Car ownership - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 056) - Assessment published Jun 2007

This content has been archived on 12 Nov 2013, reason: Content not regularly updated
Required information is not filled in: Information about the starting date of the publishing schedule is missing.

Generic metadata

Topics:

Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

Transport Transport

Tags:
passengers | belgrade | cars | transport modes | traffic | transport
DPSIR: Driving force
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 056
 
Contents
 

Key policy question: What are the trends in using private and public transport?

Key messages

If present policies and technological trends continue*, passenger transport will continue to grow worldwide, but more rapidly in the fast-growing economies of Eastern Europe, China and India. 

The car ownership rates are also expected to increase significantly. (Assessment is created in 2007)

*Projections are based on the reference case scenario. The reference case projects one possible set of future conditions, based on recent trends. Adjustments are made for expected deviations from recent trends due to factors such as existing policies, population projections (UNSTAT), income projections (IEA) and expected availability of new technologies. Expectations of other future changes in trends, such as saturation of vehicle ownership, are also incorporated. In general, no major new policies are assumed to be implemented beyond those already implemented in 2003, and no major technological breakthroughs.

http://www.wbcsd.org/web/publications/mobility/smp-model-document.pdf

Passenger-km per year per capita in 2000 and projected for 2050 and Projected car ownership rates in 2050

Note: International comparison

Data source:
Downloads and more info

Projected percentage change in passenger transport by mode and car ownership rate from 2000 to 2050

Note: International comparison

Data source:

World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) "The Sustainable Mobility Project".

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

Car ownership rates are expected to increase globally, however at a faster rate in Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union and China. In Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, car ownership per 1000 will exceed today's level in OECD Europe (390 cars/1000). Car ownership in China will increase from 13 to 230 cars/1000 in the period 2000-2050.

*Projections are based on the reference case scenario. The reference case projects one possible set of future conditions, based on recent trends. Adjustments are made for expected deviations from recent trends due to factors such as existing policies, population projections (UNSTAT), income projections (IEA) and expected availability of new technologies. Expectations of other future changes in trends, such as saturation of vehicle ownership, are also incorporated. In general, no major new policies are assumed to be implemented beyond those already implemented in 2003, and no major technological breakthroughs.
http://www.wbcsd.org/web/publications/mobility/smp-model-document.pdf

Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Anita Pirc Velkavrh

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

Document Actions
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 3336 7100