APE_F04: Emissions of ozone precursors - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 006) - Assessment published Jun 2009
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Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
DPSIR: Driving force
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- Outlook 006
Key policy question: What are prospects in reducing emissions of ozone precursors across Europe?
In developed countries efforts have been underway for decades to reduce ozone precursors (NOx, CO). There is a progress in reducing total NOx and CO emissions. Emissions per vehicle kilometer for light-duty vehicles have been substantially reduced. But growth in transport activity and problems in controlling in-use emissions have tended to offset some of the hoped-for improvements.
The situation regarding ozone precursors in the transition countries (Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia and South Eastern Europe), especially in rapidly-growing urbanized areas, is somewhat different. Although NOx and CO emissions is expected to be reduced it will not happen as easily or as quickly as desired.
In developed countries it now appears that the efforts to curtail the total volume of emissions of the remaining transport-related "conventional" pollutants are bearing fruit. Much tighter vehicle emissions standards have been enacted, and the equipment to support them is being installed on new vehicles. The cleaner fuels required to permit this equipment to operate effectively are being produced and made widely available, at least in the developed world. For these reasons, it reasonable to project sharp reductions in the emissions of these "conventional" pollutants given policies now in place (or about to be implemented) in most developed countries.
The situation regarding ozone precursors (NOx, CO) in the transition countries of EECCA and SEE (especially its rapidly-growing urbanized areas) is somewhat different. NOx and CO emissions will not be reduced as easily or as quickly. Transport activity is projected to grow much more rapidly than in the developed world. And the rate of introduction of vehicle pollution control technology and the necessary related fuels in developing countries lags considerably behind that in developed countries. In the reference scenario, this lag is projected to continue but not worsen. It is assumed that assuring compliance with pollution control standards may prove more difficult in transition countries than developed countries.
It is expected that total emissions of most conventional pollutants will be reduced less rapidly, certainly for the next few decades and perhaps longer, before eventually declining.
The main reason of the decreasing amount of NOx and CO emissions appeared from the implementations of the strict standards and controls required by the accessed EU emission sectoral legislation and accordingly to the main policy, which addressed air pollution issues in Europe, the National emission ceilings directive. While temporary increasing of NOx and CO emissions in countries with transition economies are caused by increasing economical growth and, therefore, transport activity in the region.
Input data for the IEA/SPM model - secondary data from different sources
provided by Different sources specified in the description of the data
Input data to EIA/SMP model - GDP (WEO)
provided by World Energy Outlook (WEO)
Output from IEA/SMP model - emissions of ozene precursors
Input data to IEA/SMP model - Average Pollutant Emissions for Existing Vehicles in 2000 (g/km) - output from the report OECD Environment Directorate study, (part of the MOVE II project)
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