Personal tools


Skip to content. | Skip to navigation

Sound and independent information
on the environment

You are here: Home / Data and maps / Indicators / APE_F03: Emissions of ozone precursors - outlook from LRTAP / APE_F03: Emissions of ozone precursors - outlook from LRTAP (Outlook 003) - Assessment published Jun 2007

APE_F03: Emissions of ozone precursors - outlook from LRTAP (Outlook 003) - Assessment published Jun 2007

This content has been archived on 11 Nov 2013, reason: Content not regularly updated
Required information is not filled in: Information about the starting date of the publishing schedule is missing.

Generic metadata


Environmental scenarios Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)

ozone | forward looking indicators | emissions
DPSIR: Driving force
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • Outlook 003
Geographic coverage:
Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom

Key policy question: What are prospects in reducing emissions of ozone precursors across Europe?

Key messages

On the basis of existing policies and measures, emissions of ozone precursors (NOx) of land-based air pollutants are expected to decline significantly (by 47% for NOx emissions) up to 2030. Hence, the EU as a whole is expected to comply with the 2010 targets of the national emission ceilings directive. However, while a number of Member States are well below their binding upper national emission ceilings, others are not on track.

The implementation of all feasible technical measures (best available technologies) is estimated to offer a considerable potential for further reductions in the emissions.

Emissions of ozone precursors (Baseline and MTFR scenarios, index 100 in 2000)

Note: N/A

Data source:

EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) + Norwegian Meteorological Institute (, 2003-2004. Dataset: RAINS model.

Downloads and more info

Key assessment

The outlook assesses the European air emissions of ozone precursors expected over the 2000-2030 period for the baseline and the maximum technically feasible reductions scenarios (MTFR). It covers the following anthropogenic air pollutants: nitrogen oxides (NOx).

The following developments are expected:

  • In the baseline scenario, emissions of NOx are expected to decrease by 47% in 2030 compared with 2000. Baseline emissions aggregated at the EU level are expected to comply with the compliance may vary between individual Member States.
  • Under the MTFR scenario, emissions are expected to be reduced in 2030 by half to 2.8 million tones.
  • The largest contributor to NOx emissions in 2000 was road transport (46%), followed by the power plant and other fuel conversions sector (26%). The non-road sector contributed 15% and manufacturing industry and production processes another 13%.
  • In the MTFR scenario, the importance of road transport emissions is reduced due to introduction of best available technology (38%); the power plant and other fuel conversions sector becomes responsible for 29% of the emissions, non-road transport for 17% and manufacturing industry and production processes for 16%.
  • International emissions from shipping are expected to increase considerably in the baseline scenario: in 2030 NOx emissions increase by 87% compared with 2000 and exceed land-based emissions of NOx.
  • The MTFR scenario indicates that the scope for reducing emissions through best available technology is very large for NOx (88%) for shipping.

The main reasons of the decreasing amount of NOx emissions of land-based air pollutants appeared from the implementations of the strict standards  and controls required by the accessed EU emission sectoral legislations and with accordance to the main policy, which addressed air pollution issues in Europe, the National emission ceilings directive, and due to. There is no clear description of reason for shipping transport emissions.

*this assessment is based on the results of the RAINS model (a predecessor to the GAINS model) and published in the EEA Publication 'European Environmental Outlook 2005'.



Specific policy question: How do different sectors and processes contribute to emissions of ozone precursors?

Specific assessment


Data sources

More information about this indicator

See this indicator specification for more details.

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Anita Pirc Velkavrh


EEA Management Plan

2010 (note: EEA internal system)



European Environment Agency (EEA)
Kongens Nytorv 6
1050 Copenhagen K
Phone: +45 3336 7100