APE_F03: Emissions of ozone precursors - outlook from LRTAP (Outlook 003) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A – What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- Outlook 003
Key policy question: What are prospects in reducing emissions of ozone precursors across Europe?
On the basis of existing policies and measures, emissions of ozone precursors (NOx) of land-based air pollutants are expected to decline significantly (by 47% for NOx emissions) up to 2030. Hence, the EU as a whole is expected to comply with the 2010 targets of the national emission ceilings directive. However, while a number of Member States are well below their binding upper national emission ceilings, others are not on track.
The implementation of all feasible technical measures (best available technologies) is estimated to offer a considerable potential for further reductions in the emissions.
Emissions of ozone precursors (Baseline and MTFR scenarios, index 100 in 2000)
EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) + Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no), 2003-2004. Dataset: RAINS model.
The outlook assesses the European air emissions of ozone precursors expected over the 2000-2030 period for the baseline and the maximum technically feasible reductions scenarios (MTFR). It covers the following anthropogenic air pollutants: nitrogen oxides (NOx).
The following developments are expected:
- In the baseline scenario, emissions of NOx are expected to decrease by 47% in 2030 compared with 2000. Baseline emissions aggregated at the EU level are expected to comply with the compliance may vary between individual Member States.
- Under the MTFR scenario, emissions are expected to be reduced in 2030 by half to 2.8 million tones.
- The largest contributor to NOx emissions in 2000 was road transport (46%), followed by the power plant and other fuel conversions sector (26%). The non-road sector contributed 15% and manufacturing industry and production processes another 13%.
- In the MTFR scenario, the importance of road transport emissions is reduced due to introduction of best available technology (38%); the power plant and other fuel conversions sector becomes responsible for 29% of the emissions, non-road transport for 17% and manufacturing industry and production processes for 16%.
- International emissions from shipping are expected to increase considerably in the baseline scenario: in 2030 NOx emissions increase by 87% compared with 2000 and exceed land-based emissions of NOx.
- The MTFR scenario indicates that the scope for reducing emissions through best available technology is very large for NOx (88%) for shipping.
The main reasons of the decreasing amount of NOx emissions of land-based air pollutants appeared from the implementations of the strict standards and controls required by the accessed EU emission sectoral legislations and with accordance to the main policy, which addressed air pollution issues in Europe, the National emission ceilings directive, and due to. There is no clear description of reason for shipping transport emissions.
*this assessment is based on the results of the RAINS model (a predecessor to the GAINS model) and published in the EEA Publication 'European Environmental Outlook 2005'.
Specific policy question: How do different sectors and processes contribute to emissions of ozone precursors?
Output data from RAINS model, total and by sector - CO emissions
Output data from RAINS model, total and by sector - non -methane VOCs Emissions
Input data for RAINS model - energy projections for EU countries from PRIMES model
provided by Directorate-General Energy (DG-ENER)
Input data for RAINS model - energy projections from national sources
Input data for RAINS model - livestock projectionist for the EU countries
Input data for RAINS model - livestock projections from national projections
Input data for RAINS model - livestock projections for other countries from FAO
provided by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Input data for RAINS model - transport activity from TREMOVE model
provided by Directorate-General for Energy and Transport
Input data for RAINS model - Emission factors for NOx, SO2
Input data for RAINS model - Emission factors CO
Input data for RAINS model - Emission standards for Europe
provided by Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LTRAP)
Input data for RAINS model - Emission standards other parts of the world
Output data from RAINS model, total and by sector - NOx emissions
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