APE_F01: Emissions of acidifying substances - outlook from LRTAP (Outlook 002) - Assessment published Jun 2007
Environmental scenarios (Primary topic)
Typology: Performance indicator (Type B - Does it matter?)
- Outlook 002
Key policy question: What is the prospect of reducing emissions of acidifying pollutants across Europe?
On the basis of existing policies and measures, emissions of almost all acidifying substances (NOx, NMVOC, SO2) of land-based air pollutants are expected to decline significantly (by 47% for NOx emissions, by 45% for NMVOCs, by 67% for SO2) up to 2030. In contrast, NH3 emissions will decline slightly (by 6%).
Hence, the EU as a whole is expected to comply with the 2010 targets of the national emission ceilings directive. However, while a number of Member States are well below their binding upper national emission ceilings, others are not on track.
The implementation of all feasible technical measures (best available technologies) is estimated to offer a considerable potential for further reductions in the emissions.
Emissions of acidifying substances (Baseline and MTFR scenarios, index 100 in 2000)
EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) + Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no), 2003-2004. Dataset: RAINS model.
The outlook assesses the European air emissions of acidifying substances expected over the 2000-2030 period for the baseline and the maximum technically feasible reductions scenarios (MTFR). It covers the following anthropogenic air pollutants: nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and ammonia (NH3).
The following developments are expected:
For Nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions
- In the baseline scenario, emissions of NOx are expected to decrease by 47% in 2030 compared with 2000. Baseline emissions aggregated at the EU level are expected to comply with the compliance may vary between individual Member States.
- Under the MTFR scenario, emissions are expected to be reduced in 2030 by half to 2.8 million tones.
- The largest contributor to NOx emissions in 2000 was road transport (46%), followed by the power plant and other fuel conversions sector (26%). The non-road sector contributed 15% and manufacturing industry and production processes another 13%.
- In the MTFR scenario, the importance of road transport emissions is reduced due to introduction of best available technology (38%); the power plant and other fuel conversions sector becomes responsible for 29% of the emissions, non-road transport for 17% and manufacturing industry and production processes for 16%.
- International emissions from shipping are expected to increase considerably in the baseline scenario: in 2030 NOx emissions increase by 87% compared with 2000 and exceed land-based emissions of NOx.
- The MTFR scenario indicates that the scope for reducing emissions through best available technology is very large for NOx (88%) for shipping.
For non-methane volatile compounds (NMVOC):
- In the baseline scenario, emissions of NMVOCs are expected to decrease by 45% in 2030 (to 5.9 million tones).
- In 2000, the largest contributor was road transport (45%), followed by the solvent use sector (28%). However, due to implementation of stringest controls on mobile sources, emissions from road transport are expected to be reduced by about 90%, representing about 12% in 2030, while the share of emissions from the solvent use and process sectors increase to 40% and 18% respectively.
- Baseline emissions aggregated at the EU level are expected to comply with 2010 NECD ceilings, although compliance may vary between individual Member States.
- Implementation of best available control technology in the MTFR scenario reduces the emissions by a further one third (to 4.1 million tones).
- International emissions from shipping are expected to increase considerably in the baseline scenario: emissions of NMVOCs are projected to more than double.
For sulphur dioxide emissions (SO2):
- In the baseline scenario, emissions of SO2 are expected to decrease by 67% (to 2.9 million tones). This is due to mainly to stringest controls in the energy sector, which will decrease its share from 65% to 32% in 2030.
- Baseline emissions aggregated at the EU level are expected to comply with the 2010 NECD ceilings, although compliance may vary between individual Member States.
- In the MTFR scenario emission are reduced by another 45% (to 1.1 million tones).
- Under the MTFR scenario, the share of emissions from power plants is expected to decrease to 32%, with a simultaneous increase of the shares of manufacturing industries and production processes (to 25% and 29% respectively).
- International emissions from shipping are expected to increase considerably in the baseline scenario: in 2030 SO2 emissions increase by 82% compared with 2000 and exceed land-based emissions of SO2.
For emissions of ammonia (CH3):
- In contrast, NH3 emissions are projected to decrease only slightly (6%) to 3.6 million tones in 2030 in the baseline scenario.
- Emissions from the EU-15 decrease while those from the New-10 increase slightly; however, the EU-15 still represents about 82% of EU emissions in 2030.
- Baseline emissions aggregated at the EU level are expected to comply with the 2010 NECD emission ceilings by a thin margin.
- The MTFR scenario indicates that the potential to reduce NH3 emissions is substantial and corresponds to a 40% reduction compared with baseline emissions.
- In the MTFR scenario, the share of the agricultural sector in ammonia emissions remains at about 90% over the period, 82% of which originates from livestock farming. The remaining emissions stem mainly from the waste treatment sector.
The main reasons of the decreasing amount of NOx emissions of land-based air pollutants appeared from the implementations of the strict standards and controls required by the accessed EU emission sectoral legislations and with accordance to the main policy, which addressed air pollution issues in Europe, the National emission ceilings directive, and due to. There is no clear description of reason for shipping transport emissions.
*this assessment is based on the results of the RAINS model (a predecessor to the GAINS model) and published in the EEA Publication 'European Environmental Outlook 2005'.
Input data for RAINS model - Emission factors for NOx, SO2
Input data for RAINS model - Emission standards for Europe
provided by Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LTRAP)
Input data for RAINS model - Emission standards other parts of the world
Input data for RAINS model - energy projections for EU countries from PRIMES model
provided by Directorate-General for Energy and Transport
Input data for RAINS model - energy projections from national sources
Input data for RAINS model - livestock projectionist for the EU countries
Input data for RAINS model - livestock projections for other countries from FAO
provided by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Input data for RAINS model - livestock projections from national projections
Input data for RAINS model - transport activity from TREMOVE model
provided by Directorate-General for Energy and Transport
Output data from RAINS model, total and by sector - NOx emissions
Output data from RAINS model, total and by sector - SO2 emissions
Output data from RAINS model, total and by sector - NH3 emissions
More information about this indicator
See this indicator specification for more details.
Contacts and ownership
EEA Contact InfoAnita Pirc Velkavrh
EEA Management Plan2010 (note: EEA internal system)
For references, please go to www.eea.europa.eu/soer or scan the QR code.
This briefing is part of the EEA's report The European Environment - State and Outlook 2015. The EEA is an official agency of the EU, tasked with providing information on Europe’s environment.
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