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This map shows observed linear trends in heating degree days (left) and cooling degree days (right) over 1981–2014 for all EEA member and cooperating countries. Stippling depicts regions where the trend is statistically significant at the 5% level.
Trends in frequency (upper) and severity (lower) of meteorological droughts between 1950 and 2012. Trends are based on a combination of three different drought indices - SPI, SPEI and RDI accumulated over 12-month periods. Dots: trends significant at ≥ 95%.
The maps show changes in the frequency of meteorological droughts for two future periods (2041-2070, left and 2071-2100, right) and for two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5, top and RCP8.5, bottom). Drought frequency is defined as the number of months in a 30 year period with the Standardised Precipitation Index accumulated over a 6 month period (SPI-6) having a value below -2.
The number of population-weighted heating degree days (HDD) decreased by 8.2 % between the 1951–1980 and 1981–2014 periods; the decrease during the 1981–2014 period was on average 9.9 HDDs per year (0.45 % per year). The largest absolute decrease occurred in northern and north-western Europe.
The number of population-weighted cooling degree days (CDD) increased by 49.1 % between the 1951–1980 and 1981–2014 periods; the increase during the period 1981–2014 was on average 1.2 HDDs per year (1.9 % per year). The largest absolute increase occurred in southern Europe.
The projected decrease in HDDs as a result of future climate change during the 21st century is somewhat larger than the projected increase in CDDs in absolute terms. However, in economic terms, these two effects are almost equal in Europe, because cooling is generally more expensive than heating.
The projected increases in the cooling demand in southern and central Europe may further exacerbate peaks in electricity demand in the summer unless appropriate adaptation measures are taken.
Drought has been a recurrent feature of the European climate. From 2006–2010, on average 15 % of the EU territory and 17 % of the EU population have been affected by meteorological droughts each year.
The severity and frequency of meteorological and hydrological droughts have increased in parts of Europe, in particular in south-western and central Europe.
Available studies project large increases in the frequency, duration and severity of meteorological and hydrological droughts in most of Europe over the 21st century, except for northern European regions. The greatest increase in drought conditions is projected for southern Europe, where it would increase competition between different water users, such as agriculture, industry, tourism and households.
This map compares the probability that at least one out of 11 types of adverse agroclimatic conditions occurs between sowing and majority of wheat (medium-ripening cultivar) under baseline climate (1981, black bar) and projected climate (2060, colored box). Red boxes indicate that at least 14 out of the 16 CMIP5 models show an increased probability of adverse conditions, and orange boxes indicate that at least 9 out of 16 models show an increased probability.
Projected annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season in Europe for the period 2015-2045 for two climate scenarios. The crop water deficit is the difference between the crop-specific water requirement (in this case grain maize) and the water available through precipitation. The climate forcing of the two simulations is based on the two global climate models HadGEM2 and MIROC, taken from CMIP5 and bias-corrected by the ISI-MIP project (Warszawski et al., 2014). Crop model simulations have been done with the crop model WOFOST at 25 km resolution. Red colours show an increase of the gap between crop water requirement and water availability, blue colours indicate a reduction of the deficit. Areas where the seasonal crop water requirement exceeds regularly (i.e. in more than 90 % of the years) the water available through precipitation have been marked by hatches. Areas without hatches experience both deficit and surplus or only a surplus of water. In this case, red colours refer to a reduced surplus, while blue colours indicate an increasing surplus of water.
This figure shows the rate of change of the flowering date for winter wheat. The annual rate of change of the flowering date represents the trend coefficient for long-term changes in the occurrence of flowering of winter wheat in Europe. For example, a value -0.6 indicates that in last 30 years the winter wheat flowering date has been anticipated on average by 0.6 days per year (6 days in 10 years). The flowering date is derived from crop growth models simulating crop development of winter wheat as a function of the temperature sum. The simulation is based on the JRC-MARS gridded meteorological data at 25 km resolution.
Simulated change in mean water-limited crop yield of winter wheat between the baseline period around year 2000 and 2030. The four simulations are a combination of two climate models (HadGEM2 and MIROC, taken from CMIP5 archive and bias-corrected by the ISI-MIP project), and the crop model WOFOST at 25 km spatial resolution, with and without taking into account the effect of CO2 fertilization. Crop variety and agro-management practice have been kept constant. For each time horizon of 2000 and 2030, a 30-year averaging period has been considered. Red colours show a reduction in winter wheat yield, while green colours indicate an increase in crop productivity in the given period as a response to the climate signal of each climate scenario (Araujo Enciso et al., 2014).
Annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season for the period 1985-2014 in Europe. The crop water deficit is the difference between the crop-specific water requirement (in this case grain maize) and available water through precipitation. The simulation is based on the JRC-MARS gridded meteorological data at 25 km resolution. Red colours show an increase of the gap between crop water requirement and the available water, blue colours indicate a reduction of the deficit. Areas where the seasonal crop water requirement exceeds regularly (i.e. in more than 90 % of the years) the available water (through precipitation) have been marked by hatches. Areas without hatches experience both deficit and surplus or only a surplus of water in their crop water balance. In this case, red colours refer to a reduced surplus, while blue colours indicate an increasing surplus of available water.
Yields of several rainfed crops are levelling off (e.g. wheat in some European countries) or decreasing (e.g. grapes in Spain), whereas yields of other crops (e.g. maize in northern Europe) are increasing. These changes are attributed partly to observed climate change, in particular warming.
Extreme climatic events, including droughts and heat waves, have negatively affected crop productivity in Europe during the first decade of the 21st century.
Future climate change could lead to both decreases and increases in average yield, depending on the crop type and the climatic and management conditions in the region. There is a general pattern of projected increases in productivity in northern Europe and reductions in southern Europe, but with differences between crop types.
Projected increases in extreme climatic events are expected to increase crop yield variability and to lead to yield reductions in the future throughout Europe.
The flowering of several perennial and annual crops has advanced by about two days per decade during the last 50 years.
Changes in crop phenology are affecting crop production and the relative performance of different crop species and varieties. The shortening of the grain-filling phase of cereals and oilseed crops can be particularly detrimental to yield.
Shortening of the growth phases of many crops is expected to continue, but this may be altered by selecting other crop cultivars and changing planting dates, which in some cases can lead to longer growth periods.
Climate change led to an increase in the crop water demand and thus the crop water deficit from 1995 to 2015 in large parts of southern and eastern Europe; a decrease has been estimated for parts of north-western Europe.
The projected increases in temperature will lead to increased evapotranspiration rates, thereby increasing crop water demand across Europe. This increase may partly be alleviated through reduced transpiration at higher atmospheric CO 2 levels.
The impact of increasing water requirements is expected to be most acute in southern and central Europe, where the crop water deficit and irrigation requirements are projected to increase. This may lead to an expansion of irrigation systems, even in regions currently without irrigation systems. However, this expansion may be constrained by projected reductions in water availability and increased demand from other sectors and for other uses.
The thermal growing season for agricultural crops in Europe has lengthened by more than 10 days since 1992. The delay in the end of the growing season has been more pronounced than the advance of the start of the season. The length of the growing season has increased more in northern and eastern Europe than in western and southern Europe.
The growing season is projected to increase further throughout most of Europe owing to the earlier onset of growth in spring and later senescence in autumn.
The projected lengthening of the thermal growing season would allow a northwards expansion of warm-season crops to areas that were not previously suitable. In parts of southern Europe (e.g. Spain), warmer conditions will allow crop cultivation to be shifted to the winter.
This map shows the number of deaths related to flooding per million inhabitants (cumulative over the period 1991–2015, with respect to 2015 population).
The maps displays information and the presence/absence of Aedes albopictus.
RED: An established population (evidence of reproduction and overwintering) of the species has been observed in at least one municipality within the administrative unit.
YELLOW: The species has been introduced (but without confirmed establishment) in the administrative unit within the last 5 years of the distribution status date
DARK GREEN: Field surveys or studies on mosquitoes were conducted and no introduction (during the last 5 years) or no established population of the species have been reported
MEDIUM GREY: No data for the last 5 years are available to local experts
LIGHT GREY: No information is available about field studies on mosquitoes during the last 5 years.
The maps displays information and the prsence/absence of Ixodes ricinus
RED The species is known to have been present at least in one municipality within the administrative unit.
YELLOW The species has been introduced in the administrative unit without confirmed establishment.
LIGHT GREY No information is available on the existence of field studies on ticks.
Districts with probable and confirmed cases of West Nile infections
The maps shows the risk for Chikungunya transmission in Europe generated by combining temperature requirements of the Chikungunya virus with the climatic suitability of the vector Aedes albopictus. Projections for different time-frames are based on projections by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for two emission scenarios (A1B, a medium scenario and B1, a low scenario). The "current situation" refers to the 1960-1990 baseline climate.
Exposure-response associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities, together with related temperatures distributions.
The shaded grey area delineates the 95 % empirical confidence interval.
Solid grey vertical lines are minimum mortality temperatures and dashed grey vertical lines delineate the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile temperatures.
For references, please go to http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/find/global or scan the QR code.
PDF generated on 26 Feb 2017, 01:22 PM
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