Figure

Projected changes in fire danger

Figure Created 09 Nov 2012 Published 20 Nov 2012 Last modified 28 Mar 2022

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Topics: Climate change adaptation

Fire danger is expressed by the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR). Based on projections by the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RACMO2 driven by the Global Climate Model (GCM) ECHAM5 for the SRES A1B emission scenario. Left: projected change in SSR by 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990 baseline period; Right: projected annual average SSR in 2071–2100.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/projected-meteorological-forest-fire-danger/map4-10_ff03_v4.eps/image_large

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Methodology:

Left map: Forest fire danger is expressed by the average Seasonal Severity Rating index (derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System). Percentage change of 2071-2100 SSR versus 1981-2010 SSR levels is shown in the map. The SSR series was computed usign the GCM-RCM run KNMI-RACMO2-ECHAM5 of ENSEMBLES project.

Right map: Forest fire danger is expressed by the average Seasonal Severity Rating index (derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System). Average 2071-2100 SSR levels are shown in the map. The SSR series was computed usign the GCM-RCM run KNMI-RACMO2-ECHAM5 of ENSEMBLES project.

Units:

Left map: % change in SSR

Right map: SSR

Rights:

EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (https://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: Joint Research Centre (JRC).

Owners:

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Processors:

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Figure type:

Map

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