The map shows the projected change in relative sea level in 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005 for the medium-low emission scenario RCP4.5 based on an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models. Projections consider land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment but not land subsidence due to human activities. No projections are available for the Black Sea.
Gaps in data coverage (of grid cells partly covered by land and partly by sea) were filled using the nearest-neighbour method.
Change in sea level (metre)
EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (http://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: European Environment Agency (EEA).
Source: adapted from Figure TS-23.b in the Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC). Data was supplied by Mark Carson (ZMAW, Germany), who is a contributing author to Chapter 13 of that IPCC report.