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Policy scenarios compared to Baseline: GHG emissions, CO2 emissions and global temperature change, 2000-2050

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The Outlook Baseline uses the UN forecast of population growth to 2050 and estimates that global economic growth will be 2.4% per year (expressed in terms of purchasing power parity or PPP) on average to 2050

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Notes for table 1a. The range in global mean temperature change is based on MAGICC model calculations as performed by Van Vuuren et al. (forthcoming). The MAGICC range originates from emulation of different climate models, here showing the impact of climate sensitivity with a range corresponding to a climate sensitivity of 2.0 - 4.9 oC. The overall range in transient 21st century climate change was used relative to the IMAGE model outcomes to account for differences in the scenarios.
Geographical coverage note: OECD, BRIC, ROW, World

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