The map shows the mean changes in effective solar radiation (MJ m-2), which is an indicator for water-limited crop productivity, for the period 2031–2050 compared with 1975–1994 for the RACMO (KNMI) and HadRCM3 (Hadley Centre.HC) projections under the A1B emission scenario.
The index of effective solar radiation sum has been developed as a proxy for the effects of environmental changes on crop productivity, and it integrates the daily solar radiation on those days where neither temperature nor soil moisture is limiting for growth. This index estimates the potential for rain-fed crop production using a standard soil across the entire continent, although this may be greatly modified by local soil conditions.
Olesen, J.E., Børgensen, C. D., Elsgaard, L., Palosuo, T., Rötter, R., Skjelvåg, A. O., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Börjesson, T., Trnka, M., Ewert, F., Siebert, S., Brisson, N., Eitzinger, J., van der Fels-Klerx, H. J. and van Asselt, E., 2012, 'Changes in flowing and maturity time of cereals in Northern Europe under climate change', Food Additives and Contaminants, in press
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The maps are showing the projected changes in effective solar radiation from two climate models, which is an indicator for water limited crop productivity, for the period 2031-2050 compared with 1975-1994 for the KNMI and Hadley Centre (HC) climate model projections under the A1B emission scenario.