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Observed and projected global mean surface temperatures from 1900, for three IPCC scenarios and the 'Year 2000 constant concentration' pathway
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If global greenhouse gas emissions would not be reduced, the 2°C target will be exceeded towards the middle of the 21st century. The horizontal 2°C target line takes into account warming of about 0.6 °C from pre-industrial to 1990. “Likely” ranges in average 2090-2099 warming for all six IPCC scenarios are shown on the right
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Observed global fossil fuel CO2 emissions compared with six scenarios from the IPCC
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IPCC scenarios shown are from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC, 2000). Past emission data are from the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA)
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Ocean acidity over the past 25 million years and projected to 2100
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The ‘pH’ is a measure of acidity – the lower the number the more acidic the ocean becomes. On a geological timescale, ocean pH has been relatively stable. Recently, oceans have been acidifying fast and this is projected to continue at a rate unprecedented for millions of years.
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Potential climatic tipping elements
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Tipping elements are regional-scale features of the climate that could exhibit threshold-type behaviour in response to human-driven climate change – that is, a small amount of climate change at a critical point could trigger an abrupt and/or irreversible shift in the tipping element. The consequences of such shifts for societies and ecosystems are likely to be severe. Question marks indicate systems whose status as tipping elements is particularly uncertain. There are other potential tipping elements that are missing from the map, for example shallow-water coral reefs (Veron et al. 2009) threatened in part by ocean acidification
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Potential tipping elements with direct impacts on Europe
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Colours show population density
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Annual changes in % as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Projected global average sea-level rise, 1990–2100
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Past observed and projected sea level rise from various information sources
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