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Figure Observed and projected global mean surface temperatures from 1900, for three IPCC scenarios and the 'Year 2000 constant concentration' pathway
If global greenhouse gas emissions would not be reduced, the 2°C target will be exceeded towards the middle of the 21st century. The horizontal 2°C target line takes into account warming of about 0.6 °C from pre-industrial to 1990. “Likely” ranges in average 2090-2099 warming for all six IPCC scenarios are shown on the right
Located in Data and maps Maps and graphs
Figure Observed global fossil fuel CO2 emissions compared with six scenarios from the IPCC
IPCC scenarios shown are from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC, 2000). Past emission data are from the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA)
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Figure Troff document Ocean acidity over the past 25 million years and projected to 2100
The ‘pH’ is a measure of acidity – the lower the number the more acidic the ocean becomes. On a geological timescale, ocean pH has been relatively stable. Recently, oceans have been acidifying fast and this is projected to continue at a rate unprecedented for millions of years.
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Figure text/texmacs Potential climatic tipping elements
Tipping elements are regional-scale features of the climate that could exhibit threshold-type behaviour in response to human-driven climate change – that is, a small amount of climate change at a critical point could trigger an abrupt and/or irreversible shift in the tipping element. The consequences of such shifts for societies and ecosystems are likely to be severe. Question marks indicate systems whose status as tipping elements is particularly uncertain. There are other potential tipping elements that are missing from the map, for example shallow-water coral reefs (Veron et al. 2009) threatened in part by ocean acidification
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Figure Troff document Potential tipping elements with direct impacts on Europe
Colours show population density
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Figure Projected global average sea-level rise, 1990–2100
Past observed and projected sea level rise from various information sources
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Figure Projections of extreme temperatures as represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C)
Maps show changes in extreme temperature for two future periods, relative to 1961-1990. Extreme temperatures are represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C). All projections are the average of 5 Regional Climate Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-90, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Fischer and Schär, 2010).
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Figure Sea-level changes in Europe October 1992-May 2007
Based on satellite data; trends in mm/year, inverted barometer included, seasonal signal removed
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Figure C source code The probability of exceeding 2 °C global warming versus CO2 emitted from 2000–2049
Text bellow the image
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Publication Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment
Average global air and ocean temperatures are rising, leading to the melting of snow and ice and rising global mean sea level. Ocean acidification results from higher CO2 concentrations. With unabated greenhouse gas emissions, climate change could lead to an increasing risk of irreversible shifts in the climate system with potentially serious consequences. Temperature rises of more than 1.5–2 °C above pre-industrial levels are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions in many regions. The atmospheric CO2 concentration needs to be stabilised at 350–400 parts per million (ppm) in order to have a 50 % chance of limiting global mean temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (according to the IPCC in 2007, and confirmed by later scientific insights).
Located in The European environment — state and outlook 2015 Thematic assessments
European Environment Agency (EEA)
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