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Antarctic temperature change and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) over the past 800 000 years
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The record is derived from several ice cores from the Antarctic ice sheet, some more than 3 km long
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Arctic summer sea-ice age 1981–2000 compared with 2007, 2008, and 2009
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These images compare ice age, a proxy for ice thickness, in 2007, 2008, 2009, and the 1981–2000 average. 2009 saw an increase in second-year ice over 2008. At the end of summer 2009, 32% of the ice cover was second-year ice and three-year and older ice were 19% of the total ice cover, the lowest in the satellite record.
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (CSI 013) - Assessment published Nov 2010
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The global average concentrations of various greenhouse
gasses in the atmosphere reached their highest levels ever recorded, and
continue increasing. The combustion of fossil fuels from human activities and
land-use changes are largely responsible for this increase. The concentration in 2008 of the six greenhouse
gases (GHG) included in the Kyoto Protocol has reached 438 ppm CO 2
equivalent, which is an increase of 160 ppm compared to the pre-industrial
level. Considering all GHGs (incl. ozone and various cooling aerosols),
the concentration has reached a value of 399 ppm CO 2 equivalents
in 2008, which is 121 ppm higher than in pre-industrial times. The
concentration of CO 2 -the most important greenhouse gas- has
reached in 2008 a level of 385 ppm, and in 2009 387 ppm. This is an
increase of nearly 110 ppm compared to the pre-industrial level. Without climate policy, the overall concentration
of the six Kyoto gasses is projected to increase up to 638-1360 ppm CO 2
-equivalent by 2100, whereas the concentration of all GHGs may increase up
to 608-1535 ppm CO 2 -equivalent. The global atmospheric GHG concentration
of 450 ppm CO 2 -equivalent could already become exceeded up 2015
(depending on climate policy and definitions)
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
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Cumulative specific net mass balance of selected glaciers from European glaciated regions, 1946–2008
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Cumulative specific net mass balance of selected glaciers from European glaciated regions
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Glaciers (CLIM 007) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Since 1850, glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume, with clear acceleration since the 1980s. Glacier retreat is projected to continue. A 3 o C increase in average summer air temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the European Alps by some 80 %. With continuing climate change nearly all the smaller glaciers and one third of the overall glacier area in Norway are projected to disappear by 2100. Glacier retreat has serious consequences for river flow. It affects freshwater supply, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It could cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
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Glaciers
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published May 2011
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Global
The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase between 1850 and 2010 was 0.81 0 C using combined UK Met Office Hadley centre and University of East Anglia - Climate Research Unit HadCRUT3 dataset compared to the 1850 - 1899 period average temperature and 0.89 0 C using Goddard Institute for Space Studies - GISS dataset compared to the 1880 - 1899 period average temperature. All used temperature records show the 2000s decade (2001 - 2010) was the warmest decade. For the HadCRUT3 and GISS datasets the rate of the global average has increased from around 0.06 0 C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.18 - 0.22 0 C in last decade.
The best estimates for projected global warming in this century are a further rise in the global average temperature from 1.8 to 4.0 0 C for different scenarios that assume no further/additional action to limit emissions. The EU global temperature target is projected to be exceeded between 2040 and 2060, taking into account all six IPCC scenarios.
Europe
Europe has warmed more than the global average. The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2001 - 2010) was 1.2 °C above the 1850 - 1899 average, and for the combined land and ocean area 1.0 °C above. Considering the land area, 8 out of the last 13 years were among the warmest years since 1850. High-temperature extremes like hot days, tropical nights, and heat waves have become more frequent, while low - temperature extremes (e.g. cold spells, frost days) have become less frequent in Europe. The average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled over the period 1850 to 2010 and the frequency of hot days almost tripled. The annual average temperature in Europe is projected to rise in this century with the largest warming over eastern and northern Europe in winter, and over Southern Europe in summer. High temperature events across Europe including temperature extremes such as heat waves are projected to become more frequent, intense and longer this century, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes are projected to decrease further. According to the projections, the most affected European regions are going to be the Iberian and the Apennine Peninsula and south - eastern Europe.
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Global and European temperature
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Jun 2010
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Global The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase between 1850 and 2009 was 0.74 0 C using combined Hadley centre and CRU datasets compared to the 1850 - 1899 period average temperature and 0.84 0 C using GISS dataset compared to the 1880 - 1899 period average temperature. All used temperature records show the 2000s decade (2000 - 2009) was the warmest decade. The rate of global average temperature change has increased from around 0.06 0 C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.16 - 0.20 0 C in last decade. The best estimates for projected global warming in this century are a further rise in the global average temperature from 1.8 to 4.0 0 C for different scenarios that assume no further/additional action to limit emissions. The EU global temperature target is projected to be exceeded between 2040 and 2060, taking into account all six IPCC scenarios. Europe Europe has warmed more than the global average. The annual average temperature for the European land area up to 2009 was 1.3 0 C above 1850 - 1899 average temperature, and for the combined land and ocean area 1 0 C above. Considering the land area, nine out of the last 12 years were among the warmest years since 1850. High-temperature extremes like hot days, tropical nights, and heat waves have become more frequent, while low - temperature extremes (e.g. cold spells, frost days) have become less frequent in Europe. The average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled over the period 1850 to 2009 and the frequency of hot days almost tripled. The annual average temperature in Europe is projected to rise in this century with the largest warming over eastern and northern Europe in winter, and over Southern Europe in summer. High temperature events across Europe including temperature extremes such as heat waves are projected to become more frequent, intense and longer this century, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes are projected to decrease further. According to the projections, the most affected European regions are going to be the Iberian and the Apennine Peninsula and south - eastern Europe.
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Global and European temperature
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Jun 2012
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Global
Three independent long records of global average near-surface (land and ocean) annual temperature show that the decade between 2002 and 2011 was 0.77°C to 0.80°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.
In recent decades, the rate of change in global average temperature has been close to the 0.2°C per decade.
The Arctic has warmed significantly more than the globe, and this is projected to continue into the future.
The best estimate for the further rise in global average temperature is between 1.8 and 4.0°C for the lowest and highest SRES marker scenarios (IPCC SRES) that assume no additional political measures to limit emissions. When climate model uncertainties are taken into account, the likely range increases to 1.1 – 6.4 °C. The EU target of limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is projected to be exceeded during the second half of this century and likely around 2050, for all six IPCC scenarios.
Europe
The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2002-2011) is 1.3°C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest on record.
Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to continue increasing by more than global land temperature during the 21 st century. By the 2021-2050 period, temperature increases of between 1.0°C and 2.5°C are projected, and by 2071-2100 this increases to between 2.5°C and 4.0°C.
The largest temperature increase during 21 st century is projected over eastern and northern Europe in winter and over Southern Europe in summer.
Extremes of cold have become less frequent in Europe while warm extremes have become more frequent. Since 1880 the average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled and frequency of hot days almost tripled.
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Global and European temperature
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Mean precipitation (CLIM 002) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Annual precipitation trends since 1950 show an increase by up to 70 mm per decade in north-eastern and north-western Europe and a decrease by up to 70 mm in some parts of southern Europe.
Seasonal precipitation trends show an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe, albeit with large interannual variations.
The direction of future precipitation changes is simulated robustly in many parts of central and western Europe across all seasons. However, many parts of Europe, such as eastern and southern Europe, lack model consensus on the direction of change.
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Mean precipitation
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Measured and projected concentration of all greenhouse gases (left) and Kyoto greenhouse gases (right)
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Graphs show observed and projected green house gases. Projections are made using all main IPCC SRES scenarios
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