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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Using scenarios to improve understanding of environment and security issues
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Analysing the security risks resulting from climate change is essential for effective policy-making. The Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Environment Agency (EEA) is running the joint project 'Security implications of climate change in the OSCE regions' with the aim of improving understanding of the links between global megatrends and environment, and the security of food, fuel and water in different regions. It also aims to enhance cooperation and networking among the main institutions addressing climate security issues. A participatory-based scenario-building approach was used as a tool to help explore the complex and uncertain impacts stemming from climate change. This brochure provides a project overview, which includes the results of workshops carried out so far.
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Projected changes in fire danger
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Fire danger is expressed by the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR). Based on projections by the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RACMO2 driven by the Global Climate Model (GCM) ECHAM5 for the SRES A1B emission scenario.
Left: projected change in SSR by 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990 baseline period; Right: projected annual average SSR in 2071–2100.
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State and trend of fire danger
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Fire danger is expressed by the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR). Daily severity values can be averaged over the fire season using the SSR index, which allows objective comparison of fire danger from year to year and from region to region. The coarse scale of the map does not allow accounting for specific conditions of given sites, as for example in the Alpine region, where the complex topography may strongly affect local fire danger.
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Projected distribution of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments by impact type and European region
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Projected distribution of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments by impact type and European region. EU-27 only; A1B scenario, 2070–2100, combined effects of climate change and socio-economic change
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Projections of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments for four major categories
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Projections of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments for four major categories for two different socio economic scenarios and three different future periods.
Left: damage costs for the A1B scenario for energy for cooling, heat-related mortality (weighted average of Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) and Value of a Life Year Lost (VOLY)), river floods and coastal zones. Time horizon: 2010–2040, 2040–2070 and 2070–2100.
Right: A1B and E1 scenarios, 2070–2100.
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
Located in
Data and maps
›
Maps and graphs
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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BLOSSOM — Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods
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A cross-country analysis
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Catalogue of scenario studies — Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services
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The report brings together a review of available scenarios studies relevant to environmental assessment and decision-making at the European (or sub-European) scale (263 studies), and facts sheets of selected 44 studies using common description categories, which enables the user to review existing scenario studies that may be of relevance to their particular interest and benefit from them. It is also a contribution to the evolving knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services (FLIS).
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