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Trends in warm days and cool nights across Europe
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Warm days are defined as being above the 90th percentile of the daily maximum temperature and cool nights as below the 10th percentile of the daily minimum temperature (Alexander et al., 2006). Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid-box. High confidence in the long-term trend is shown by a black dot. (In the maps above, this is the case for all grid boxes.) Area averaged annual time series of percentage changes and trend lines are shown below each map for one area in northern Europe (green line, 5.6 ° to 16.9 °E and 56.2 ° to 66.2 °N) and one in south-western Europe (purple line, 350.6 ° to 1.9 °E and 36.2 ° to 43.7 °N).
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Maps and graphs
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Jun 2012
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Global
Three independent long records of global average near-surface (land and ocean) annual temperature show that the decade between 2002 and 2011 was 0.77°C to 0.80°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.
In recent decades, the rate of change in global average temperature has been close to the 0.2°C per decade.
The Arctic has warmed significantly more than the globe, and this is projected to continue into the future.
The best estimate for the further rise in global average temperature is between 1.8 and 4.0°C for the lowest and highest SRES marker scenarios (IPCC SRES) that assume no additional political measures to limit emissions. When climate model uncertainties are taken into account, the likely range increases to 1.1 – 6.4 °C. The EU target of limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is projected to be exceeded during the second half of this century and likely around 2050, for all six IPCC scenarios.
Europe
The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2002-2011) is 1.3°C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest on record.
Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to continue increasing by more than global land temperature during the 21 st century. By the 2021-2050 period, temperature increases of between 1.0°C and 2.5°C are projected, and by 2071-2100 this increases to between 2.5°C and 4.0°C.
The largest temperature increase during 21 st century is projected over eastern and northern Europe in winter and over Southern Europe in summer.
Extremes of cold have become less frequent in Europe while warm extremes have become more frequent. Since 1880 the average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled and frequency of hot days almost tripled.
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Indicators
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Global and European temperature
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Trends in cool nights across Europe
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How to read the map:
Cool nights are defined as being below the 10th percentile of the daily minimum temperature. Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least 3 stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid-box. Higher confidence in the long-term trend is shown by a black dot. Area averaged annual time series of percentage changes and trend lines are shown below each map for one area in northern Europe (Green line, 5.6 to 16.9 E and 56.2 to 66.2 N) and one in south-western Europe (Pink line, 350.6 to 1.9 E and 36.2 to 43.7 N).
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Projections of extreme temperatures as represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C)
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Maps show changes in extreme temperature for two future periods, relative to 1961-1990. Extreme temperatures are represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C). All projections are the average of 5 Regional Climate Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-90, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Fischer and Schär, 2010).
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Trends in warm days across Europe
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How to read the map:
Warm days are defined as being above the 90th percentile of the daily maximum temperature.
Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least 3 stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid-box. Higher confidence in the long-term trend is shown by a black dot. Area averaged annual time series of percentage changes and trend lines are shown below each map for one area in northern Europe (Green line, 5.6 to 16.9 E and 56.2 to 66.2 N) and one in south-western Europe (Pink line, 350.6 to 1.9 E and 36.2 to 43.7 N).
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Disasters in Europe: more frequent and causing more damage
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The number and impacts of disasters have increased in Europe in the period 1998-2009, a new report by the European Environment Agency (EEA) concludes. The report assesses the frequency of disasters and their impacts on humans, the economy and ecosystems and calls for better integrated risk disaster management across Europe.
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News
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Mapping the impacts of natural hazards and technological accidents in Europe
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The report assesses the occurrence and impacts of disasters and the underlying hazards such as storms, extreme temperature events, forest fires, water scarcity and droughts, floods, snow avalanches, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes and technological accidents in Europe for the period 1998-2009.
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Publications
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Climate change, adaptation is vital
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Climate change is one of the biggest environmental, social and economic threats our planet currently faces. Profound changes are about to affect the mechanisms supporting life on earth, and their impact in the next few decades will be considerable.
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Multimedia centre
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Prof. Jacqueline McGlade on adapting to the impacts of climate change – speech for the ESPACE initiative
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In her speech, Prof. Jacqueline McGlade, Executive Director of the European Environment Agency (EEA), stresses the importance of imbedding climate change into planning systems and processes. ESPACE (European Spatial Planning: Adapting to Climate Events) is a four-year European project promoting the importance of adapting the entire planning process to the impacts of climate change.
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Multimedia centre