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Greenhouse gas emission trends (CSI 010) - Assessment published Feb 2007
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EU-25 Total greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-25, without emissions and removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), decreased by 4.8 % between 1990 and 2004. Greenhouse gas emissions increased by 0.4 % (18 million tonnes CO2-equivalents) between 2003 and 2004. EU-15 In 2004 total greenhouse gas emissions in the pre-2004 EU Member States (EU-15), excluding LULUCF, were 0.6 % (24 million tonnes CO2 equivalents) below 1990. Compared to the base year level, emissions in 2004 were 0.9 % (38 million tonnes CO2 equivalents) lower (Figure 1). This means the EU-15 was little more than a tenth of the way towards achieving the 8 % emissions reduction from base-year level required by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol . Only five EU-15 Member States were on track to meet their burden sharing targets (Figure 2). Increases in carbon dioxide emissions were offset by reductions in nitrous oxide, methane and fluorinated gases. The main reason for increases between 1990 and 2004 was growing road transport demand. The large increase of CO2 emissions from road transport was only partly offset by reductions in emissions from energy use in manufacturing industries and from manufacture of solid fuels. New Member States Greenhouse gas emissions have declined substantially in almost all new Member States. In 2004, emissions were 23 % below 1990 level (Figure 3). This is mainly due to the introduction of market economies and the consequent restructuring or closure of heavily polluting and energy-intensive industries. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport decreased by 5 % between 1990 and 1995 but increased after 1995. In 2004 they exceeded 1990 levels by 28 %. All new Member States who have a Kyoto target were on track to meet their target (Figure 4).
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Greenhouse gas emission trends
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Greenhouse gas emission trends (CSI 010) - Assessment published Mar 2009
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According to first estimates by EEA for the year 2010, EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4 % compared to 2009 (with a margin of error of +/- 0.3 %). This was due to the return to economic growth in many countries and a colder winter leading to an increased heating demand. However, the increase in emissions was contained by a move from coal to natural gas and the sustained strong growth in renewable energy generation. EU‑27 emissions were 15.5 % below the 1990 level. This 2010 increase follows a 7 % drop in 2009 (compared to 2008), largely due to the economic recession and the growth of renewable energy generation. Between 1990 and 2010, greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-27 decreased in all main emitting sectors except in the transport sector, where they increased considerably. In the EU-15, CO 2 emissions from public electricity and heat production also increased.
In the EU-15, estimated 2010 GHG emissions increased by 2.3 % (+/– 0.7) compared to 2009. This implies that EU‑15 greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 10.6 % below the 1990 level in 2010 (1) or 10.7 % below the base-year level. The European Union remains well on track to achieve its Kyoto Protocol target (an 8% reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions compared to base-year level, to be achieved during the period from 2008 to 2012). 2010 emissions of all EU-12 Member States that have a Kyoto target were well below their Kyoto target, except in Slovenia.
A detailed assessment of progress towards Kyoto targets and 2020 targets in Europe is provided in EEA's 2011 report on Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections .
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Greenhouse gas emission trends
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Greenland ice sheet (CLIM 009) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The Greenland ice sheet changed in the 1990s from being in near mass balance to losing about 100 billion tonnes of ice per year. Ice losses may have doubled again by 2005. Accelerated flow of outlet glaciers to the sea accounts for more of the ice loss than melting. The contribution of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise is estimated at 0.14-0.28 mm/year for the period 1993-2003 and has since increased. In the long term, melting ice sheets have the largest potential to increase sea level. No reliable predictions of the future of the ice sheets can yet be made; the processes causing the faster movement of the glaciers are poorly understood and there is a lack of long-term observations.
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Greenland ice sheet
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Growing season for agricultural crops (CLIM 030) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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There is evidence that the length of the growing season of several agricultural crops in Europe has changed. A longer growing season increases crop yields and insect populations and favours the introduction of new species in areas that were not previously suitable for these species. These observed facts are particularly important for the northern latitudes. Locally at southern latitudes, the trend is towards a shortening of the growing season, with consequent higher risk of frost damage from delayed spring frosts.
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Growing season for agricultural crops
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Heat and health (CLIM 036) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Increasing temperatures are likely to increase the number of heat-related deaths. Mortality risk increases by between 0.2 and 5.5 % for every 1 o C increase in temperature above a location-specific threshold. Heat-wave events can have detrimental effects on human health. More than 70 000 excess deaths were reported from 12 European countries in the hot summer of 2003 (June to September). Long heat waves (more than 5 days) have an impact 1.5 to 5 times greater than shorter events. 86 000 net extra deaths per year are projected for the EU Member States for a high-emissions scenario with a global mean temperature increase of 3 o C in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990.
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Heat and health
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Impact of climate change on bird populations (SEBI 011) - Assessment published May 2010
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Climate change is having a detectable effect on bird populations at a European scale, including both negative and positive effects. The number of bird species whose populations are observed to be negatively impacted by climatic change is three times larger than those observed to be positively affected by climate warming in this set of widespread European land birds. The Climatic Impact Indicator, which illustrates the impact of climate change on bird populations, has increased strongly in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid climatic warming in Europe. Potential links between changes in bird populations and ecosystem functioning and resilience are not well understood.
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Impact of climate change on bird populations
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Lake and river ice cover (CLIM 020) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The duration of ice cover in the northern hemisphere has shortened at a mean rate of 12 days per century, resulting from an average 5.7 days later ice cover and 6.3 days earlier ice break-up. The strongest trends in northern Europe are in the timing of ice break-up which is consistent with the fastest warming in winter and spring. The ice cover of lakes with mean winter temperature close to zero is much more dependent on temperature change than lakes in colder regions such as northern Scandinavia.
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Lake and river ice cover
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Mountain permafrost (CLIM 011) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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A warming of mountain permafrost in Europe of 0.5-1.0 o C was observed during the past 10-20 years. Present and projected atmospheric warming will likely lead to wide-spread thaw of mountain permafrost. Warming and melting of permafrost is expected to contribute to increasing the destabilization of mountain rock-walls, the frequency of rock falls, debris flow activity and geotechnical and maintenance problems in high-mountain infrastructure.
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Mountain permafrost
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Normalised losses from river flood disasters (CLIM 040) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Economic losses as a consequence of extreme flood events in recent years have been dramatic. Flood disasters increased significantly in Europe during the 1990s and the 2000s. The estimated losses in central Europe in 2002 were EUR 17.4 billion. This is more than the GDP of Bulgaria in that year. The cost of floods in the United Kingdom in summer 2007 is estimated at around EUR 4.3 billion. Although there is scientific evidence for a continuing intensification of the water cycle there is no homogeneous trend in extreme river flows/discharge in Europe. Analyses of long-term records of flood losses indicate that societal, environmental and economic factors clearly play an important role in the observed upward trends.
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Normalised losses from river flood disasters
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Northward movement of marine species (CLIM 015) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Increases in regional sea temperatures have triggered a major northward movement of warmer-water plankton in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder-water plankton to the north. This northerly movement is about 10 o latitude (1 100 km) over the past 40 years, and it seems to have accelerated since 2000. This will have an impact on the distribution of fish in the region. Many species of fish and plankton have shifted their distributions northward. Sub-tropical species are occurring with increasing frequency in European waters and sub-Arctic species are receding northwards. The rate of northward movement of a particular species, the silvery john dory, has been estimated at about 50 km/year. Changes in the geographic distribution of some species of fish have been observed and may affect the management of fisheries. Fisheries regulations in the EU include allocations of quotas based on historic catch patterns, and these may need to be revised.
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Northward movement of marine species
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