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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (CSI 013) - Assessment published Mar 2009
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The global average concentrations of various greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere reached their highest levels ever recorded, and continue increasing. The combustion of fossil fuels from human activities and land-use changes are largely responsible for this increase. The concentration in 2007 of the six greenhouse gases (GHG) included in the Kyoto Protocol has reached 436 ppm CO 2 -equivalent, which is an increase of 158 ppm compared to the pre-industrial level. Considering all GHGs (incl. ozone and various cooling aerosols), the concentration is 396 ppm CO 2 -equivalents, which is 115 ppm higher than in pre-industrial times. The concentration of CO 2 - the most important greenhouse gas- has reached in 2007 a level of 383 ppm, and in 2008 385 ppm. This is an increase of nearly 110 ppm compared to the pre-industrial level. Under the IPCC scenarios the overall concentration of the six Kyoto gasses is projected to increase up to 638-1360 ppm CO 2 -equivalent by 2100, whereas the concentration of all GHGs may increase up to 608-1535 ppm CO 2 -equivalent. The global atmospheric GHG concentration of 450 ppm CO 2 -equivalent may be exceeded between 2015 and 2030.
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
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CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA (Outlook 031) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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The RAINS* model provides information about the projections for the methane emissions. For the "current legislation" scenario a continued increase of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions is expected, leading to 35 percent increase in 2030 as compared to 2000. CH4 emissions from all sectors are expected to grow due to increased economic activities and absence of wide-spread emission control measures. In Western Europe and Newly Independent states overall CH4 emissions will only slightly increase. If all maximum technically feasible reductions (MFR scenario) were applied to the full extent, global CH4 emissions would stabilize up to 2030, though at considerable costs. Under the MFR scenario CH4 emissions in Western Europe and Newly Independent states would be able to decrease on 31% and 16% relatively.
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CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA
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Change in species diversity as a result of climate change - outlook from EEA (Outlook 004) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Significant changes in the distribution of plant species in Europe are expected by 2100 due to increase of global temperature by about 3.10C. Such temperature increase going to be well above the long-term sustainable objective set in the 6th EAP. The Southwestern part and the most Eastern part (Russia) of Europe may suffer the highest changes in biodiversity; the loss of species might exceed 50 % by 2050. By 2100 most European Member States are expected to lose more than 50 species compared with the 1995 situation.
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Change in species diversity as a result of climate change - outlook from EEA
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Coastal areas (CLIM 041) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Coastal flooding can lead to important losses. By 2100, the population in the main coastal European cities exposed to sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems is expected to be about 4 million and the exposed assets more than EUR 2 trillion (without adaptation). Future projections of sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems show potentially large increases in the risk of coastal flooding. These could have significant economic costs (without adaptation), with recent estimates in the range of 12 to 18 billion EUR/year for Europe in 2080 under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. The same estimates indicate that adaptation could significantly reduce this risk to around EUR 1 billion.
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Coastal areas
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Crop-yield variability (CLIM 032) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Climate and its variability are largely responsible for variations in crop suitability and productivity in Europe. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of 2007. As a consequence of climatic change, such events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, and crop yields to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land management can act as risk-mitigating measures.
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Crop-yield variability
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Direct losses from weather disasters (CLIM 039) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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About 90 % of all natural disasters in Europe that have occurred since 1980 are directly or indirectly attributable to weather and climate. About 95 % of economic losses caused by catastrophic events have resulted from these weather and climate-related disasters. The average number of annual disastrous weather and climate-related events in Europe increased by about 65 % over 1998-2007 compared with the annual average for the 1980s, while non-weather events (e.g. earthquakes) remained stable. An unknown share of this increase can be attributed to climate change, the rest to changes in the sensitivity of human/societal systems. Overall losses resulting from weather- and climate-related events have increased clearly during the past 25 years. Even though social change and economic development are the main factors responsible for this increase, there is evidence that changing patterns of weather disasters are also drivers. However, it is still not possible to determine the proportion of the increase in damages that might be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While in the immediate future disaster losses are projected to increase mainly as a result of societal change and economic development, the most severe effects of anthropogenic climate change on economic assets are expected in the second half of the century.
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Direct losses from weather disasters
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Distribution of animal species (CLIM 024) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Europe's birds, insects, mammals and other groups are moving northwards and uphill, largely in response to observed climate change. But rates of distribution change are not necessarily keeping pace with changing climate. A combination of the rate of climate change, habitat fragmentation and other obstacles will impede the movement of many animal species, possibly leading to a progressive decline in European biodiversity. Distribution changes are projected to continue. Suitable climatic conditions for Europe's breeding birds are projected to shift nearly 550 km northeast by the end of the century, with the average range size shrinking by 20 %. Projections for 120 native European mammals suggest that up to 9 % (assuming no migration) risk extinction during the 21st century.
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Distribution of animal species
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Distribution of plant species (CLIM 022) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Climate change, in particular milder winters, is responsible for the observed northward and uphill distribution shifts of many European plant species. Mountain ecosystems in many parts of Europe are changing as pioneer species expand uphill and cold-adapted species are driven out of their ranges. By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction. The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt, especially as landscape fragmentation may restrict movement.
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Distribution of plant species
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Emissions of acidifying substances (version 1) (CSI 001) - Assessment published Dec 2006
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Emissions of acidifying gases have decreased significantly in most EEA member countries. Between 1990 and 2004, emissions decreased by 46% in the EU-15 and by 62% in the EU-10, despite increased economic activity (GDP).
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Emissions of acidifying substances (version 1)
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Emissions of acidifying substances (version 1) (CSI 001) - Assessment published Mar 2008
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Aggregated emissions of acidifying gases (NH 3 , NO x , SO 2 ) have decreased significantly in most EEA member countries between 1990 and 2005 (Figure 1) despite increased economic activity (GDP) occurring during this period. However, meeting the 2010 NO x emission ceilings is likely to be a problem for a number of countries. Emissions in the EU-15 Member States decreased by 47% since 1990 from 1 025 kt to 539 kt (Figure 2). The EU-15 is well on track on meeting its overall 2010 NECD target for acidifying pollutants. Between 1900 and 2005 emissions of acidifying pollutants in the new EU-12 countries declined significantly from 503 kt to 206 kt, a reduction of 59% (Figure 3). The new EU-12 is also on track on meeting its overall 2010 NECD target for acidifying substances.
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Emissions of acidifying substances (version 1)
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