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Plant and fungi phenology (CLIM 023) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The timing of seasonal events in plants is changing across Europe, mainly due to changes in climate conditions. Seventy-eight per cent of leaf unfolding and flowering records show advancing trends in recent decades whereas only 3 % show a significant delay. Between 1971 and 2000, the average advance of spring and summer was between 2.5 and 4 days per decade.
As a consequence of climate-induced changes in plant phenology, the pollen season starts on average 10 days earlier and is longer than it was 50 years ago.
Trends in seasonal events are projected to advance further as climate warming proceeds.
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Plant and fungi phenology
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Lake and river ice cover (CLIM 020) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The existence of ice cover and the timing of ice break-up influence the vertical mixing of lakes and are therefore of critical ecological importance.
The duration of ice cover on European lakes and rivers has shortened at a mean rate of 12 days per century over the last 150–200 years.
A further decrease in the duration of lake ice cover is projected with projected climate change.
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Lake and river ice cover
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River floods (CLIM 017) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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More than 325 major river floods have been reported for Europe since 1980, of which more than 200 have been reported since 2000.
The rise in the reported number of flood events over recent decades results mainly from better reporting and from land-use changes
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle and increase the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe. However, estimates of changes in flood frequency and magnitude remain highly uncertain. In regions with reduced in snow accumulation during winter, the risk of early spring flooding would decrease.
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River floods
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River flow drought (CLIM 018) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Europe has been affected by several major droughts in recent decades, such as the catastrophic drought associated with the 2003 summer heat wave in central parts of the continent and the 2005 drought in the Iberian Peninsula.
Severity and frequency of droughts appear to have increased in parts of Europe, in particular in southern Europe.
Regions most prone to an increase in drought hazard are southern and south-eastern Europe, but minimum river flows will also decrease significantly in many other parts of the continent, especially in summer.
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River flow drought
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River flow (CLIM 016) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Long-term trends in river flows due to climate change are difficult to detect due to substantial inter annual and decadal variability as well as modifications to natural water flows arising from water abstractions, man-made reservoirs and land-use changes. Nevertheless, increased river flows during winter and lower river flows during summer have been recorded since the 1960s in large parts of Europe.
Climate change is projected to result in strong changes in the seasonality of river flows across Europe. Summer flows are projected to decrease in most of Europe, including in regions where annual flows are projected to increase.
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River flow
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Global and European sea-level rise (CLIM 012) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Tide gauges show that global mean sea level rose at a rate of around 1.7 mm/year over the 20th century, but there has been significant decadal variations around this value.
Satellite measurements show a rate of global mean sea-level rise of around 3 mm/year over the last 2 decades.
Sea level is not rising uniformly at all locations, with some locations experiencing much greater than average rise.
Projections of global mean sea-level rise in the 21st century range between 20 cm and about 2 m. Modelling uncertainty contributes at least as much to the overall uncertainty as uncertainty about future GHG emissions scenarios. It is likely that 21st century sea-level rise will be greater than during the 20th century. It is more likely to be less than 1 m than to be more than 1 m.
Coastal impacts also depend on the vertical movement of the land, which can either add to or subtract from climate-induced sea-level change, depending on the particular location.
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Global and European sea-level rise
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Arctic and Baltic Sea ice (CLIM 010) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The extent and volume of the Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly since global data became available in 1980, especially in summer. Record low sea ice cover in September 2007, 2011 and 2012 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1980s.
In the period 1979-2011, the Arctic has lost on average 45 000 km 2 of sea ice per year in winter and 91 000 km 2 per year at the end of summer. The decline in summer sea ice appears to have accelerated since 1999.
Arctic Sea ice is projected to continue to shrink in extent and thickness and may even disappear at the end of the summer melt season in the coming decades. There will still be substantial ice in winter.
Baltic Sea ice, in particular the extent of the maximal cover, is projected to shrink.
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Arctic and Baltic Sea ice
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Permafrost (CLIM 011) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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In the past 10–20 years European permafrost has shown a general warming trend, with greatest warming in Svalbard and Scandinavia. The active layer thickness has increased at some European permafrost sites. Several sites show great interannual variability which reflects the complex interaction between the atmospheric conditions and local snow and ground characteristics.
Present and projected atmospheric warming is projected to lead to widespread warming and thawing of permafrost.
Warming and thawing of permafrost is expected to increase the risk of landslides, ground subsidence and flash floods from bursting glacial lakes. Thawing of permafrost also affects biodiversity and may accelerate climate change through release of CO2 and CH4 from arctic permafrost areas.
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Permafrost
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Glaciers (CLIM 007) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume since 1850, with clear acceleration since the 1980s.
Glacier retreat is expected to continue in the future. The volume of European glaciers has been estimated to decline between 22 and 66 % compared to the current situation by 2100 under a business-as-usual emission scenario.
Glacier retreat contributes to sea-level rise and it affects freshwater supply and run off regimes, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It may also cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
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Glaciers
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Snow cover (CLIM 008) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere has fallen by 7 % in March and 11 % in April during the past 4 decades. In winter and autumn no significant changes have occurred.
Snow mass in Europe has decreased by 7 % in March from 1982 to 2009.
Model simulations project widespread reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover in Europe over the 21st century. However, there are large uncertainties in the projections.
Changes in snow cover affect the Earth’s surface reflectivity, water resources, the flora and fauna and their ecology, agriculture, forestry, tourism, snow sports, transport and power generation.
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Snow cover
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