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Growing season for agricultural crops (CLIM 030) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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There is evidence that the length of the growing season of several agricultural crops in Europe has changed. A longer growing season increases crop yields and insect populations and favours the introduction of new species in areas that were not previously suitable for these species. These observed facts are particularly important for the northern latitudes. Locally at southern latitudes, the trend is towards a shortening of the growing season, with consequent higher risk of frost damage from delayed spring frosts.
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Growing season for agricultural crops
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Heat and health (CLIM 036) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Increasing temperatures are likely to increase the number of heat-related deaths. Mortality risk increases by between 0.2 and 5.5 % for every 1 o C increase in temperature above a location-specific threshold. Heat-wave events can have detrimental effects on human health. More than 70 000 excess deaths were reported from 12 European countries in the hot summer of 2003 (June to September). Long heat waves (more than 5 days) have an impact 1.5 to 5 times greater than shorter events. 86 000 net extra deaths per year are projected for the EU Member States for a high-emissions scenario with a global mean temperature increase of 3 o C in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990.
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Heat and health
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Lake and river ice cover (CLIM 020) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The duration of ice cover in the northern hemisphere has shortened at a mean rate of 12 days per century, resulting from an average 5.7 days later ice cover and 6.3 days earlier ice break-up. The strongest trends in northern Europe are in the timing of ice break-up which is consistent with the fastest warming in winter and spring. The ice cover of lakes with mean winter temperature close to zero is much more dependent on temperature change than lakes in colder regions such as northern Scandinavia.
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Lake and river ice cover
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Marine phenology (CLIM 014) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Temperature increases in the ocean have caused many marine organisms in European seas to appear earlier in their seasonal cycles than in the past. For example, some species have moved forward in their seasonal cycle by 4-6 weeks. Changes in the timing of seasonal cycles have important consequences for the way organisms within an ecosystem interact and ultimately for the structure of marine food-webs at all trophic levels. The consequences include: - increased vulnerability of North Sea cod stocks to over-fishing; - decline in seabird populations. Marine species may be able to adapt genetically to changed conditions. However, with the current pace of climate warming this may be hampered because genetic changes require several reproductive cycles to occur.
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Marine phenology
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Mountain permafrost (CLIM 011) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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A warming of mountain permafrost in Europe of 0.5-1.0 o C was observed during the past 10-20 years. Present and projected atmospheric warming will likely lead to wide-spread thaw of mountain permafrost. Warming and melting of permafrost is expected to contribute to increasing the destabilization of mountain rock-walls, the frequency of rock falls, debris flow activity and geotechnical and maintenance problems in high-mountain infrastructure.
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Mountain permafrost
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Normalised losses from river flood disasters (CLIM 040) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Economic losses as a consequence of extreme flood events in recent years have been dramatic. Flood disasters increased significantly in Europe during the 1990s and the 2000s. The estimated losses in central Europe in 2002 were EUR 17.4 billion. This is more than the GDP of Bulgaria in that year. The cost of floods in the United Kingdom in summer 2007 is estimated at around EUR 4.3 billion. Although there is scientific evidence for a continuing intensification of the water cycle there is no homogeneous trend in extreme river flows/discharge in Europe. Analyses of long-term records of flood losses indicate that societal, environmental and economic factors clearly play an important role in the observed upward trends.
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Normalised losses from river flood disasters
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Northward movement of marine species (CLIM 015) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Increases in regional sea temperatures have triggered a major northward movement of warmer-water plankton in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder-water plankton to the north. This northerly movement is about 10 o latitude (1 100 km) over the past 40 years, and it seems to have accelerated since 2000. This will have an impact on the distribution of fish in the region. Many species of fish and plankton have shifted their distributions northward. Sub-tropical species are occurring with increasing frequency in European waters and sub-Arctic species are receding northwards. The rate of northward movement of a particular species, the silvery john dory, has been estimated at about 50 km/year. Changes in the geographic distribution of some species of fish have been observed and may affect the management of fisheries. Fisheries regulations in the EU include allocations of quotas based on historic catch patterns, and these may need to be revised.
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Northward movement of marine species
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Plant phenology (CLIM 023) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The timing of seasonal events in plants is changing across Europe, due mainly to changes in climate conditions; 78 % of leaf unfolding and flowering records show advancing trends and only 3 % a significant delay. Between 1971 and 2000, the average advance of spring and summer was 2.5 days per decade. As a consequence of climate-induced changes in plant phenology, the pollen season starts on average 10 days earlier and is longer than 50 years ago. Trends in seasonal events will continue to advance as climate warming increases in the years and decades to come.
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Plant phenology
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Precipitation extremes in Europe (CLIM 004) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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For Europe as a whole, the intensity of precipitation extremes such as heavy rain events has increased in the past 50 years, even for areas with a decrease in mean precipitation such as central Europe and the Mediterranean. The proportion of Europe experiencing meteorological drought conditions did not change significantly during the 20th century. For Europe as whole, heavy precipitation events are projected to continue to become more frequent. Dry periods are projected to increase in length and frequency, especially in southern Europe.
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Precipitation extremes in Europe
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River floods (CLIM 017) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Although a significant trend in extreme river flows has not yet been observed, twice as many river flow maxima occurred in Europe between 1981 and 2000 than between 1961 and 1980. Since 1990, 259 major river floods have been reported in Europe, of which 165 have been reported since 2000. The rise in the reported number of flood events over recent decades results mainly from better reporting and land-use changes. Nevertheless, global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle and increase the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe, although estimates of changes in flood frequency and magnitude remain highly uncertain. Projections suggest that warming will result in less snow accumulation during winter and therefore a lower risk of early spring flooding.
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River floods
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