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Freight transport demand - outlook from OECD (Outlook 037) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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The OECD Environmental Outlook does not provide the direct answer to these policy questions but provides an indications on the developments in the transport sector globally. The rapid increase in transportation activity seen in recent decades is expected to continue to 2030.
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Freight transport demand - outlook from OECD
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Freight transport demand - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 027) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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If present policies and technological trends continue ( a ), freight transport is projected to continue to grow worldwide. In the Pan-European region the most significant growth is expected in Eastern Europe, while worldwide a more rapid increase is projected in the fast-growing economies of China and India. Worldwide road transport is expected to grow faster than rail transport. This is expected to lead to substantial shifts of the modal split of freight transport towards less sustainable modes. a) Projections are based on the reference case scenario. The reference case projects one possible set of future conditions, based on recent trends. Adjustments are made for expected deviations from recent trends due to factors such as existing policies, population projections (UNSTAT), income projections (IEA) and expected availability of new technologies. Expectations of other future changes in trends, such as saturation of vehicle ownership, are also incorporated. In general, no major new policies are assumed to be implemented beyond those already implemented in 2003, and no major technological breakthroughs (www.wbcsd.org/web/publications/mobility/smp-model-document.pdf).
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Freight transport demand - outlook from WBCSD
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GDP - outlook from OECD (Outlook 041) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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In a no new policies scenario*, GDP is projected to continue to grow in absolute and per-capita terms in the whole pan-European region, more rapidly in the eastern parts, such as EECCA and SEE. Globally WEU, USA and Canada are projected to continue to have the highest GDP per capita. WEU will approach the levels of USA and Canada. However, the fastest-growing economies are expected to be China, India and EECCA. (Assessment is created in 2007) *Projections are based on the baseline OECD scenario. The baseline is a no new policies scenario by design, without anticipating deliberate interventions requiring new or intensified policies in response to the projected developments. Population indicators were adopted from the most recently published UN
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GDP - outlook from OECD
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Generation and recycling of packaging waste - outlook EEA (Outlook 035) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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In the EU-15, most packaging waste streams are not expected to decouple significantly from GDP. The packaging waste generation is expected to continue to grow across Europe (50% by 2020 as compare to the year 2000). The policy target of absolute decoupling is unlikely to be met. This might lead to an increase in environmental pressures and stretch the waste management capabilities of countries with less developed infrastructure. The economic situation in Europe has a significant impact on packaging waste streams.
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Generation and recycling of packaging waste - outlook EEA
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GHG Concentrations - outlook from MNP (Outlook 019) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Under the IPCC scenarios the overall concentration of the six Kyoto gasses is projected to increase up to 638-1360 ppm CO 2 -equivalent by 2100, whereas the concentration of all GHGs may increase up to 608-1535 ppm CO 2 -equivalent. The global atmospheric GHG concentration of 450 ppm CO 2 -equivalent may be exceeded between 2015 and 2030.
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GHG Concentrations - outlook from MNP
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GHG emissions - outlook from IEA (Outlook 036) - Assessment published Jun 2009
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Global energy-related emissions of CO2*, the largest contributor to total GHG emissions, are projected to increase by 29 % up to 2030. China is expected to be the main engine for this growth. In terms of energy-related emissions per capita, Russia will be come close to the current largest emitter, the US. However, if countries were to adopt all the energy security and energy-saving policies that they are currently considering to tackle CO2 emissions**, total emissions avoided by 2030 could equal more than the current emissions of the US and Canada combined (or 16 % of the 2030 emissions in the IEA reference scenario), and energy-related CO2 emissions in OECD Europe in 2030 could be less than today's level.
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GHG emissions - outlook from IEA
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GHG emissions - outlook from IEA (Outlook 036) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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The reference scenario* projects that rising global fuel use continues to drive up energy related CO2 emissions, from 28Gt in 2006 to 41 Gt in 2030 - an increase of 45%. Some 97% of the global increase in energy related CO2 emissions to 2030 arises in non-OECD countries. China (6.1 Gt), India (2 Gt) and the Middle East (1.3 Gt) together account for three-quarters of the increase. Emissions in the OECD group of countries peak after 2020 and then decline. Only in Europe and Japan are emissions in 2030 lower than today. * The IEA Reference Scenario, indicate what would happen if, among other things, there were to be no new energy policy interventions by governments beyond these already adopted in mid-2008. The Reference Scenario is not a forecast: it is a baseline picture of how global energy markets would evolve if the underlying trends in energy demand and supply are not changed.
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GHG emissions - outlook from IEA
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GHG emissions - outlook from MNP (Outlook 008) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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The risk of inaction is high, with unabated emissions in the Baseline scenario 1 leading to about a 37% and 52% increase in global emissions in the 2030 and 2050 respectively compared to 2005, with a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems. This unabated emission pathway could lead to high levels of global warming, with long-term average temperatures likely to be at least 4 to 6 C higher than pre-industrial temperatures. The costs of even the most stringent mitigation cases are in the range of a few percent of global GDP in 2050. Thus they are manageable, they are also feasible at limited cost, especially if policies are designed to start early to be cost-effective and to share the burden of costs across all regions.
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GHG emissions - outlook from MNP
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GHG emissions - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 032) - Assessment published Jun 2009
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It is expected that GHG emissions will rise for each mode and in each region. The projected growth in GHG emissions varies widely by region. Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia and South Eastern Europe and South Eastern Europe show a much greater increase than OECD Europe. This is due to the differences in projected rates of growth in transport activity and expectation that vehicle technologies and fuels required to enable lower greenhouse gas emissions will be introduced and widely used, but slowler in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia and South Eastern Europe than in OECD Europe.
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GHG emissions - outlook from WBCSD
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Global and European temperature - EEA (Outlook 021) - Assessment published Jun 2009
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By 2100, global temperature change is expected to be well above the long-term sustainable objective set in the 6th EAP (bearing in mind the inherent scientific and analytical uncertainty characterising the assessment of climate change impacts).
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Global and European temperature - EEA
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