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Arctic sea ice (CLIM 010) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The extent of the sea ice in the Arctic has declined at an accelerating rate, especially in summer. The record low ice cover in September 2007 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1950s. The summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear at the height of the summer melt season in the coming decades. There will still be substantial ice in winter. Reduced polar ice will speed up global warming and is expected to affect ocean circulation and weather patterns. Species specialised for life in the ice are threatened. Less ice will ease access to the Arctic's resources. Oil and gas exploration, shipping, tourism and fisheries will offer new economic opportunities, but also increase pressures and risks to the Arctic environment.
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Arctic sea ice
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (CSI 013) - Assessment published Oct 2005
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The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the main greenhouse gas, has increased by 34 % compared with pre-industrial levels as a result of human activities, with an accelerated rise since 1950. Other greenhouse gas concentrations have also risen as a result of human activities. The present concentrations of CO 2 and CH 4 have not been exceeded during the past 420 000 years and the present N 2 O concentration during at least the past 1 000 years. IPCC (2001) baseline projections show that greenhouse gas concentrations are likely to exceed the level of 550 ppm CO 2 -equivalent in the next few decades (before 2050).
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (CSI 013) - Assessment published Apr 2008
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The global average concentrations of various greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere reached their highest levels ever recorded, and continue increasing. The combustion of fossil fuels from human activities and land-use changes are largely responsible for this increase. The concentration in 2006 of the six greenhouse gases (GHG) included in the Kyoto Protocol has reached 433 ppm CO2 equivalent, which is an increase of 155 ppm compared to the pre-industrial level. Considering all GHGs (incl. ozone and various cooling aerosols), the concentration is 393 ppm CO2 equivalents, which is 115 ppm higher than in pre-industrial times. The concentration of CO2 - the most important greenhouse gas - has reached in 2006 a level of 381 ppm, showing an increase of 103 ppm compared to the pre-industrial level. Under the IPCC scenarios the overall concentration of the six Kyoto gasses is projected to increase up to 638-1360 ppm CO2 -equivalent by 2100, whereas the concentration of all GHGs may increase up to 608-1535 ppm CO2 -equivalent. The global atmospheric GHG concentration of 450 ppm CO2-equivalent may be exceeded between 2015 and 2030.
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
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CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA (Outlook 031) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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The RAINS* model provides information about the projections for the methane emissions. For the "current legislation" scenario a continued increase of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions is expected, leading to 35 percent increase in 2030 as compared to 2000. CH4 emissions from all sectors are expected to grow due to increased economic activities and absence of wide-spread emission control measures. In Western Europe and Newly Independent states overall CH4 emissions will only slightly increase. If all maximum technically feasible reductions (MFR scenario) were applied to the full extent, global CH4 emissions would stabilize up to 2030, though at considerable costs. Under the MFR scenario CH4 emissions in Western Europe and Newly Independent states would be able to decrease on 31% and 16% relatively.
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CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA
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Change in species diversity as a result of climate change - outlook from EEA (Outlook 004) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Significant changes in the distribution of plant species in Europe are expected by 2100 due to increase of global temperature by about 3.10C. Such temperature increase going to be well above the long-term sustainable objective set in the 6th EAP. The Southwestern part and the most Eastern part (Russia) of Europe may suffer the highest changes in biodiversity; the loss of species might exceed 50 % by 2050. By 2100 most European Member States are expected to lose more than 50 species compared with the 1995 situation.
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Change in species diversity as a result of climate change - outlook from EEA
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Coastal areas (CLIM 041) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Coastal flooding can lead to important losses. By 2100, the population in the main coastal European cities exposed to sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems is expected to be about 4 million and the exposed assets more than EUR 2 trillion (without adaptation). Future projections of sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems show potentially large increases in the risk of coastal flooding. These could have significant economic costs (without adaptation), with recent estimates in the range of 12 to 18 billion EUR/year for Europe in 2080 under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. The same estimates indicate that adaptation could significantly reduce this risk to around EUR 1 billion.
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Coastal areas
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Crop-yield variability (CLIM 032) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Climate and its variability are largely responsible for variations in crop suitability and productivity in Europe. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of 2007. As a consequence of climatic change, such events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, and crop yields to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land management can act as risk-mitigating measures.
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Crop-yield variability
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Final energy consumption - outlook from IEA (Outlook 011) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Aggregate global demand in final-use sectors is projected to grow by 1.4% per year from 2006 to 2030 - slightly slower than primary energy demand. The fastest growth is projected in non-OECD countries, while OECD Europe's growth in final energy consumption is expected to be the lowest pace. Industry demand increases everywhere, but fastest in the Middle East, India and China. The rate of growth in global transport energy demand slows considerably over the Outlook period. In 2030, disparities in per capita energy consumption among regions are projected to remain stark. Russia and OECD countries are expected continue having significantly higher levels of final energy consumption per capita than in other world regions.
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Final energy consumption - outlook from IEA
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Glaciers (CLIM 007) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Since 1850, glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume, with clear acceleration since the 1980s. Glacier retreat is projected to continue. A 3 o C increase in average summer air temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the European Alps by some 80 %. With continuing climate change nearly all the smaller glaciers and one third of the overall glacier area in Norway are projected to disappear by 2100. Glacier retreat has serious consequences for river flow. It affects freshwater supply, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It could cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
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Glaciers
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Greenland ice sheet (CLIM 009) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The Greenland ice sheet changed in the 1990s from being in near mass balance to losing about 100 billion tonnes of ice per year. Ice losses may have doubled again by 2005. Accelerated flow of outlet glaciers to the sea accounts for more of the ice loss than melting. The contribution of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise is estimated at 0.14-0.28 mm/year for the period 1993-2003 and has since increased. In the long term, melting ice sheets have the largest potential to increase sea level. No reliable predictions of the future of the ice sheets can yet be made; the processes causing the faster movement of the glaciers are poorly understood and there is a lack of long-term observations.
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Greenland ice sheet
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