Data and maps

Potential climatic tipping elements: Tipping elements are regional-scale features of the climate that could exhibit threshold-type behaviour in response to human-driven climate change – that is, a small amount of climate change at a critical point could trigger an abrupt and/or irreversible shift in the tipping element. The consequences of such shifts for societies and ecosystems are likely to be severe. Question marks indicate systems whose status as tipping elements is particularly uncertain. There are other potential tipping elements that are missing from the map, for example shallow-water coral reefs (Veron et al. 2009) threatened in part by ocean acidification
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Potential tipping elements with direct impacts on Europe: Colours show population density
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Ocean acidity over the past 25 million years and projected to 2100: The ‘pH’ is a measure of acidity – the lower the number the more acidic the ocean becomes. On a geological timescale, ocean pH has been relatively stable. Recently, oceans have been acidifying fast and this is projected to continue at a rate unprecedented for millions of years.
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The probability of exceeding 2 °C global warming versus CO2 emitted from 2000–2049: Text bellow the image
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100: Annual changes in % as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Cumulative specific net mass balance of selected glaciers from European glaciated regions, 1946–2008: Cumulative specific net mass balance of selected glaciers from European glaciated regions
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Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment: Average global air and ocean temperatures are rising, leading to the melting of snow and ice and rising global mean sea level. Ocean acidification results from higher CO2 concentrations. With unabated greenhouse gas emissions, climate change could lead to an increasing risk of irreversible shifts in the climate system with potentially serious consequences. Temperature rises of more than 1.5–2 °C above pre-industrial levels are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions in many regions. The atmospheric CO2 concentration needs to be stabilised at 350–400 parts per million (ppm) in order to have a 50 % chance of limiting global mean temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (according to the IPCC in 2007, and confirmed by later scientific insights).
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › Thematic assessments
Understanding climate change — key message 1: Global mean temperature in 2009 was 0.7-0.8 °C higher than in pre-industrial times and the decade 2000-2009 was the warmest on record. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded in 2007 that most of the global warming since the middle of the 20th century is very likely to have been due to human influences.
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › … › Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment › Key messages
Understanding climate change — key message 2: Land and ocean sinks have taken up more than half of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since 1800, but these natural sinks are vulnerable to climate and land-use change and are highly likely to take up less CO2 in future.
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › … › Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment › Key messages
Understanding climate change — key message 3: The extent of Arctic summer sea ice has declined by about 10 % per decade since 1979. The extent of the minimum ice cover in September 2007 was half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1950s; the third lowest minimum extent occurred in September 2010. The summer ice is also getting thinner and younger.
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › … › Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment › Key messages