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Sea surface temperature (CLIM 013) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Sea surface temperature (SST) in European seas is increasing more rapidly than in the global oceans. The rate of increase is higher in the northern European seas and lower in the Mediterranean Sea. The rate of increase in sea surface temperature in all European seas during the past 25 years has been about 10 times faster than the average rate of increase during more than the past century. The rate of increase observed in the past 25 years is the largest ever measured in any previous 25 year period.
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Sea surface temperature
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Temperature extremes in Europe (CLIM 003) - Assessment DRAFT created Sep 2008
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Extremes of cold have become less frequent in Europe while warm extremes have become more frequent. The frequency of hot days almost tripled between 1880 and 2005. For Europe as a whole heat waves are projected to increase in frequency, intensity and duration, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes are projected to decrease further. The European regions projected to be most affected are the Iberian Peninsula, central Europe including the Alps, the eastern Adriatic seaboard, and southern Greece.
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Temperature extremes in Europe
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Water temperature (CLIM 019) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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During the last century the water temperature of some European rivers and lakes increased by 1-3 o C, mainly as a result of air temperature increase, but also locally due to increased inputs of heated cooling water from power plants. In line with the projected increases in air temperature, lake surface water temperatures may be around 2 o C higher by 2070.
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Water temperature
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Arctic and Baltic Sea ice (CLIM 010) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The extent and volume of the Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly since global data became available in 1980, especially in summer. Record low sea ice cover in September 2007, 2011 and 2012 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1980s.
In the period 1979-2011, the Arctic has lost on average 45 000 km 2 of sea ice per year in winter and 91 000 km 2 per year at the end of summer. The decline in summer sea ice appears to have accelerated since 1999.
Arctic Sea ice is projected to continue to shrink in extent and thickness and may even disappear at the end of the summer melt season in the coming decades. There will still be substantial ice in winter.
Baltic Sea ice, in particular the extent of the maximal cover, is projected to shrink.
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Arctic and Baltic Sea ice
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Permafrost (CLIM 011) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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In the past 10–20 years European permafrost has shown a general warming trend, with greatest warming in Svalbard and Scandinavia. The active layer thickness has increased at some European permafrost sites. Several sites show great interannual variability which reflects the complex interaction between the atmospheric conditions and local snow and ground characteristics.
Present and projected atmospheric warming is projected to lead to widespread warming and thawing of permafrost.
Warming and thawing of permafrost is expected to increase the risk of landslides, ground subsidence and flash floods from bursting glacial lakes. Thawing of permafrost also affects biodiversity and may accelerate climate change through release of CO2 and CH4 from arctic permafrost areas.
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Permafrost
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Decapod abundance in the central North Sea 1950-2005
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Left: year vs
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Greenland ice sheet (CLIM 009) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The Greenland ice sheet is the largest body of ice in the Northern Hemisphere and plays an important role in the cryosphere. It changed in the 1990s from being in near mass balance to losing about 100 billion tonnes of ice per year. Ice losses have since then more than doubled to 250 billion tonnes a year averaged over 2005 to 2009.
The contribution of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise is estimated at 0.14–0.28 mm/year for the period 1993–2003 and has since increased. The recent melting of the Greenland ice sheet is estimated to have contributed up to 0.7 mm a year to sea-level rise, which is approximately one quarter of the total sea-level rise of about 3.1 mm/year.
Model projections suggest further declines of the Greenland ice sheet in the future but the processes determining the rate of change are still poorly understood.
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Greenland ice sheet
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Glaciers (CLIM 007) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume since 1850, with clear acceleration since the 1980s.
Glacier retreat is expected to continue in the future. The volume of European glaciers has been estimated to decline between 22 and 66 % compared to the current situation by 2100 under a business-as-usual emission scenario.
Glacier retreat contributes to sea-level rise and it affects freshwater supply and run off regimes, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It may also cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
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Glaciers
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Lake and river ice cover (CLIM 020) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The existence of ice cover and the timing of ice break-up influence the vertical mixing of lakes and are therefore of critical ecological importance.
The duration of ice cover on European lakes and rivers has shortened at a mean rate of 12 days per century over the last 150–200 years.
A further decrease in the duration of lake ice cover is projected with projected climate change.
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Lake and river ice cover
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Ocean acidification (CLIM 043) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Surface-ocean pH has declined from 8.2 to 8.1 over the industrial era due to the growth of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This decline corresponds to a 30 % change in oceanic acidity.
Observed reductions in surface-water pH are nearly identical across the global ocean and throughout Europe’s seas.
Ocean acidification in recent decades is occurring a hundred times faster than during past natural events over the last 55 million years.
Ocean acidification already reaches into the deep ocean, particularly in the high latitudes.
Average surface-water pH is projected to decline further to 7.7 or 7.8 by the year 2100, depending on future CO 2 emissions. This decline represents a 100 to 150 % increase in acidity.
Ocean acidification may affect many marine organisms within the next 20 years and could alter marine ecosystems and fisheries.
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Ocean acidification
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