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Arctic sea ice (CLIM 010) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The extent of the sea ice in the Arctic has declined at an accelerating rate, especially in summer. The record low ice cover in September 2007 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1950s. The summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear at the height of the summer melt season in the coming decades. There will still be substantial ice in winter. Reduced polar ice will speed up global warming and is expected to affect ocean circulation and weather patterns. Species specialised for life in the ice are threatened. Less ice will ease access to the Arctic's resources. Oil and gas exploration, shipping, tourism and fisheries will offer new economic opportunities, but also increase pressures and risks to the Arctic environment.
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Arctic sea ice
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Coastal areas (CLIM 041) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Coastal flooding can lead to important losses. By 2100, the population in the main coastal European cities exposed to sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems is expected to be about 4 million and the exposed assets more than EUR 2 trillion (without adaptation). Future projections of sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems show potentially large increases in the risk of coastal flooding. These could have significant economic costs (without adaptation), with recent estimates in the range of 12 to 18 billion EUR/year for Europe in 2080 under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. The same estimates indicate that adaptation could significantly reduce this risk to around EUR 1 billion.
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Coastal areas
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Crop-yield variability (CLIM 032) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Climate and its variability are largely responsible for variations in crop suitability and productivity in Europe. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of 2007. As a consequence of climatic change, such events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, and crop yields to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land management can act as risk-mitigating measures.
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Crop-yield variability
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Glaciers (CLIM 007) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Since 1850, glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume, with clear acceleration since the 1980s. Glacier retreat is projected to continue. A 3 o C increase in average summer air temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the European Alps by some 80 %. With continuing climate change nearly all the smaller glaciers and one third of the overall glacier area in Norway are projected to disappear by 2100. Glacier retreat has serious consequences for river flow. It affects freshwater supply, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It could cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
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Glaciers
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Greenland ice sheet (CLIM 009) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The Greenland ice sheet changed in the 1990s from being in near mass balance to losing about 100 billion tonnes of ice per year. Ice losses may have doubled again by 2005. Accelerated flow of outlet glaciers to the sea accounts for more of the ice loss than melting. The contribution of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise is estimated at 0.14-0.28 mm/year for the period 1993-2003 and has since increased. In the long term, melting ice sheets have the largest potential to increase sea level. No reliable predictions of the future of the ice sheets can yet be made; the processes causing the faster movement of the glaciers are poorly understood and there is a lack of long-term observations.
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Greenland ice sheet
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Lake and river ice cover (CLIM 020) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The duration of ice cover in the northern hemisphere has shortened at a mean rate of 12 days per century, resulting from an average 5.7 days later ice cover and 6.3 days earlier ice break-up. The strongest trends in northern Europe are in the timing of ice break-up which is consistent with the fastest warming in winter and spring. The ice cover of lakes with mean winter temperature close to zero is much more dependent on temperature change than lakes in colder regions such as northern Scandinavia.
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Lake and river ice cover
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Marine phenology (CLIM 014) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Temperature increases in the ocean have caused many marine organisms in European seas to appear earlier in their seasonal cycles than in the past. For example, some species have moved forward in their seasonal cycle by 4-6 weeks. Changes in the timing of seasonal cycles have important consequences for the way organisms within an ecosystem interact and ultimately for the structure of marine food-webs at all trophic levels. The consequences include: - increased vulnerability of North Sea cod stocks to over-fishing; - decline in seabird populations. Marine species may be able to adapt genetically to changed conditions. However, with the current pace of climate warming this may be hampered because genetic changes require several reproductive cycles to occur.
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Marine phenology
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Mountain permafrost (CLIM 011) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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A warming of mountain permafrost in Europe of 0.5-1.0 o C was observed during the past 10-20 years. Present and projected atmospheric warming will likely lead to wide-spread thaw of mountain permafrost. Warming and melting of permafrost is expected to contribute to increasing the destabilization of mountain rock-walls, the frequency of rock falls, debris flow activity and geotechnical and maintenance problems in high-mountain infrastructure.
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Mountain permafrost
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Northward movement of marine species (CLIM 015) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Increases in regional sea temperatures have triggered a major northward movement of warmer-water plankton in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder-water plankton to the north. This northerly movement is about 10 o latitude (1 100 km) over the past 40 years, and it seems to have accelerated since 2000. This will have an impact on the distribution of fish in the region. Many species of fish and plankton have shifted their distributions northward. Sub-tropical species are occurring with increasing frequency in European waters and sub-Arctic species are receding northwards. The rate of northward movement of a particular species, the silvery john dory, has been estimated at about 50 km/year. Changes in the geographic distribution of some species of fish have been observed and may affect the management of fisheries. Fisheries regulations in the EU include allocations of quotas based on historic catch patterns, and these may need to be revised.
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Northward movement of marine species
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Sea surface temperature (CLIM 013) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Sea surface temperature (SST) in European seas is increasing more rapidly than in the global oceans. The rate of increase is higher in the northern European seas and lower in the Mediterranean Sea. The rate of increase in sea surface temperature in all European seas during the past 25 years has been about 10 times faster than the average rate of increase during more than the past century. The rate of increase observed in the past 25 years is the largest ever measured in any previous 25 year period.
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Sea surface temperature
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