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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Mean precipitation (CLIM 002) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Annual precipitation trends since 1950 show an increase by up to 70 mm per decade in north-eastern and north-western Europe and a decrease by up to 70 mm in some parts of southern Europe.
Seasonal precipitation trends show an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe, albeit with large interannual variations.
The direction of future precipitation changes is simulated robustly in many parts of central and western Europe across all seasons. However, many parts of Europe, such as eastern and southern Europe, lack model consensus on the direction of change.
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Mean precipitation
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Maps and graphs
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Jun 2012
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Global
Three independent long records of global average near-surface (land and ocean) annual temperature show that the decade between 2002 and 2011 was 0.77°C to 0.80°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.
In recent decades, the rate of change in global average temperature has been close to the 0.2°C per decade.
The Arctic has warmed significantly more than the globe, and this is projected to continue into the future.
The best estimate for the further rise in global average temperature is between 1.8 and 4.0°C for the lowest and highest SRES marker scenarios (IPCC SRES) that assume no additional political measures to limit emissions. When climate model uncertainties are taken into account, the likely range increases to 1.1 – 6.4 °C. The EU target of limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is projected to be exceeded during the second half of this century and likely around 2050, for all six IPCC scenarios.
Europe
The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2002-2011) is 1.3°C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest on record.
Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to continue increasing by more than global land temperature during the 21 st century. By the 2021-2050 period, temperature increases of between 1.0°C and 2.5°C are projected, and by 2071-2100 this increases to between 2.5°C and 4.0°C.
The largest temperature increase during 21 st century is projected over eastern and northern Europe in winter and over Southern Europe in summer.
Extremes of cold have become less frequent in Europe while warm extremes have become more frequent. Since 1880 the average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled and frequency of hot days almost tripled.
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Global and European temperature
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Data and maps
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Maps and graphs
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Projections of extreme temperatures as represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C)
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Maps show changes in extreme temperature for two future periods, relative to 1961-1990. Extreme temperatures are represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C). All projections are the average of 5 Regional Climate Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-90, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Fischer and Schär, 2010).
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published May 2011
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Global
The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase between 1850 and 2010 was 0.81 0 C using combined UK Met Office Hadley centre and University of East Anglia - Climate Research Unit HadCRUT3 dataset compared to the 1850 - 1899 period average temperature and 0.89 0 C using Goddard Institute for Space Studies - GISS dataset compared to the 1880 - 1899 period average temperature. All used temperature records show the 2000s decade (2001 - 2010) was the warmest decade. For the HadCRUT3 and GISS datasets the rate of the global average has increased from around 0.06 0 C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.18 - 0.22 0 C in last decade.
The best estimates for projected global warming in this century are a further rise in the global average temperature from 1.8 to 4.0 0 C for different scenarios that assume no further/additional action to limit emissions. The EU global temperature target is projected to be exceeded between 2040 and 2060, taking into account all six IPCC scenarios.
Europe
Europe has warmed more than the global average. The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2001 - 2010) was 1.2 °C above the 1850 - 1899 average, and for the combined land and ocean area 1.0 °C above. Considering the land area, 8 out of the last 13 years were among the warmest years since 1850. High-temperature extremes like hot days, tropical nights, and heat waves have become more frequent, while low - temperature extremes (e.g. cold spells, frost days) have become less frequent in Europe. The average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled over the period 1850 to 2010 and the frequency of hot days almost tripled. The annual average temperature in Europe is projected to rise in this century with the largest warming over eastern and northern Europe in winter, and over Southern Europe in summer. High temperature events across Europe including temperature extremes such as heat waves are projected to become more frequent, intense and longer this century, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes are projected to decrease further. According to the projections, the most affected European regions are going to be the Iberian and the Apennine Peninsula and south - eastern Europe.
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Global and European temperature
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Projected global average sea-level rise, 1990–2100
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Past observed and projected sea level rise from various information sources
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Observed and projected change in sea level 1970–2008, relative to the sea level in 1990
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The solid lines are based on observations smoothed to remove the effects of interannual variability (light lines connect data points). Data in most recent years are obtained via satellite based sensors. The envelope of IPCC (2001) projections is shown for comparison; this includes the broken lines as individual projections and the shading as the uncertainty around the projections.
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Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent, 1900–2100
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Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent
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