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Greenland ice sheet (CLIM 009) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The Greenland ice sheet changed in the 1990s from being in near mass balance to losing about 100 billion tonnes of ice per year. Ice losses may have doubled again by 2005. Accelerated flow of outlet glaciers to the sea accounts for more of the ice loss than melting. The contribution of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise is estimated at 0.14-0.28 mm/year for the period 1993-2003 and has since increased. In the long term, melting ice sheets have the largest potential to increase sea level. No reliable predictions of the future of the ice sheets can yet be made; the processes causing the faster movement of the glaciers are poorly understood and there is a lack of long-term observations.
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Greenland ice sheet
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Lake and river ice cover (CLIM 020) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The duration of ice cover in the northern hemisphere has shortened at a mean rate of 12 days per century, resulting from an average 5.7 days later ice cover and 6.3 days earlier ice break-up. The strongest trends in northern Europe are in the timing of ice break-up which is consistent with the fastest warming in winter and spring. The ice cover of lakes with mean winter temperature close to zero is much more dependent on temperature change than lakes in colder regions such as northern Scandinavia.
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Lake and river ice cover
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Marine phenology (CLIM 014) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Temperature increases in the ocean have caused many marine organisms in European seas to appear earlier in their seasonal cycles than in the past. For example, some species have moved forward in their seasonal cycle by 4-6 weeks. Changes in the timing of seasonal cycles have important consequences for the way organisms within an ecosystem interact and ultimately for the structure of marine food-webs at all trophic levels. The consequences include: - increased vulnerability of North Sea cod stocks to over-fishing; - decline in seabird populations. Marine species may be able to adapt genetically to changed conditions. However, with the current pace of climate warming this may be hampered because genetic changes require several reproductive cycles to occur.
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Marine phenology
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Mountain permafrost (CLIM 011) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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A warming of mountain permafrost in Europe of 0.5-1.0 o C was observed during the past 10-20 years. Present and projected atmospheric warming will likely lead to wide-spread thaw of mountain permafrost. Warming and melting of permafrost is expected to contribute to increasing the destabilization of mountain rock-walls, the frequency of rock falls, debris flow activity and geotechnical and maintenance problems in high-mountain infrastructure.
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Mountain permafrost
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Northward movement of marine species (CLIM 015) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Increases in regional sea temperatures have triggered a major northward movement of warmer-water plankton in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder-water plankton to the north. This northerly movement is about 10 o latitude (1 100 km) over the past 40 years, and it seems to have accelerated since 2000. This will have an impact on the distribution of fish in the region. Many species of fish and plankton have shifted their distributions northward. Sub-tropical species are occurring with increasing frequency in European waters and sub-Arctic species are receding northwards. The rate of northward movement of a particular species, the silvery john dory, has been estimated at about 50 km/year. Changes in the geographic distribution of some species of fish have been observed and may affect the management of fisheries. Fisheries regulations in the EU include allocations of quotas based on historic catch patterns, and these may need to be revised.
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Northward movement of marine species
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Projections of GHG emissions - outlooks from National Communications under UNFCCC (Outlook 025) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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With current trends and policies,* GHG emissions per capita are expected to increase until 2020 in the EU-10, Eastern Europe, Caucasus, central Asia and South Eastern Europe more than in EU 15, Canada and US. In absolute terms, US GHG emissions per capita are expected to stay the highest in the world.** Global energy-related emissions of CO2, the largest contributor to total GHG emissions, will increase by 29 % up to 2030. China will be the main engine for this growth. In terms of energy-related emissions per capita, Russia will be come close to the current largest emitter, the US. However, if countries were to adopt all the energy security and energy-saving policies that they are currently considering to tackle CO2 emissions, total emissions avoided by 2030 could equal more than the current emissions of the US and Canada combined (or 16 % of the 2030 emissions in the IEA reference scenario), and energy-related CO2 emissions in OECD Europe in 2030 could be less than today's level. *Baseline Scenarios presented in the National Communications of Climate Change (NCC). They include the GDP and population growth projections and the policies adopted in the country on the date of production of the NCC. ** On January 10, 2007 the European Commission presented a package on Climate Change and Energy which basically was endorsed by the European Council 9 March 2007. It includes targets for the reduction of GHGs by 2020. This will influence the reported projections for the coming years.
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Projections of GHG emissions - outlooks from National Communications under UNFCCC
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Sea surface temperature (CLIM 013) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Sea surface temperature (SST) in European seas is increasing more rapidly than in the global oceans. The rate of increase is higher in the northern European seas and lower in the Mediterranean Sea. The rate of increase in sea surface temperature in all European seas during the past 25 years has been about 10 times faster than the average rate of increase during more than the past century. The rate of increase observed in the past 25 years is the largest ever measured in any previous 25 year period.
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Sea surface temperature
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Temperature extremes in Europe (CLIM 003) - Assessment DRAFT created Sep 2008
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Extremes of cold have become less frequent in Europe while warm extremes have become more frequent. The frequency of hot days almost tripled between 1880 and 2005. For Europe as a whole heat waves are projected to increase in frequency, intensity and duration, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes are projected to decrease further. The European regions projected to be most affected are the Iberian Peninsula, central Europe including the Alps, the eastern Adriatic seaboard, and southern Greece.
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Temperature extremes in Europe
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Use of freshwater resources - outlook from EEA (Outlook 014) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Total water abstraction in Europe is expected to decrease by more than 10 % between 2000 and 2030 with pronounced decreases in Western Europe. Climate change is expected to reduce water availability and increase irrigation withdrawals in Mediterranean river basins. Under mid-range assumptions on temperature and precipitation changes, water availability is expected to decline in southern and south-eastern Europe (by 10 % or more in some river basins by 2030). The sectoral profile of water abstraction is expected to change: withdrawals for the electricity sector are projected to decrease dramatically over the next 30 years as a result of continuing substitution of once-through cooling by less water-intensive cooling tower systems. Water use in the manufacturing sector may grow significantly. Agricultureis expected to remain the largest water user in the Mediterranen countries, with more irrigation and warmer and drier growing seasons resulting from climate change.
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Use of freshwater resources - outlook from EEA
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Water temperature (CLIM 019) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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During the last century the water temperature of some European rivers and lakes increased by 1-3 o C, mainly as a result of air temperature increase, but also locally due to increased inputs of heated cooling water from power plants. In line with the projected increases in air temperature, lake surface water temperatures may be around 2 o C higher by 2070.
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Water temperature
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