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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Jun 2012: Global Three independent long records of global average near-surface (land and ocean) annual temperature show that the decade between 2002 and 2011 was 0.77°C to 0.80°C warmer than the pre-industrial average. In recent decades, the rate of change in global average temperature has been close to the 0.2°C per decade. The Arctic has warmed significantly more than the globe, and this is projected to continue into the future. The best estimate for the further rise in global average temperature is between 1.8 and 4.0°C for the lowest and highest SRES marker scenarios (IPCC SRES) that assume no additional political measures to limit emissions. When climate model uncertainties are taken into account, the likely range increases to 1.1 – 6.4 °C. The EU target of limiting global average temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is projected to be exceeded during the second half of this century and likely around 2050, for all six IPCC scenarios. Europe The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2002-2011) is 1.3°C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest on record. Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to continue increasing by more than global land temperature during the 21 st century. By the 2021-2050 period, temperature increases of between 1.0°C and 2.5°C are projected, and by 2071-2100 this increases to between 2.5°C and 4.0°C. The largest temperature increase during 21 st century is projected over eastern and northern Europe in winter and over Southern Europe in summer. Extremes of cold have become less frequent in Europe while warm extremes have become more frequent. Since 1880 the average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled and frequency of hot days almost tripled.
Located in Data and maps › Indicators › Global and European temperature
Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment: Average global air and ocean temperatures are rising, leading to the melting of snow and ice and rising global mean sea level. Ocean acidification results from higher CO2 concentrations. With unabated greenhouse gas emissions, climate change could lead to an increasing risk of irreversible shifts in the climate system with potentially serious consequences. Temperature rises of more than 1.5–2 °C above pre-industrial levels are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions in many regions. The atmospheric CO2 concentration needs to be stabilised at 350–400 parts per million (ppm) in order to have a 50 % chance of limiting global mean temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (according to the IPCC in 2007, and confirmed by later scientific insights).
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › Thematic assessments
Understanding climate change — key message 1: Global mean temperature in 2009 was 0.7-0.8 °C higher than in pre-industrial times and the decade 2000-2009 was the warmest on record. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded in 2007 that most of the global warming since the middle of the 20th century is very likely to have been due to human influences.
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › … › Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment › Key messages
Understanding climate change — key message 2: Land and ocean sinks have taken up more than half of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since 1800, but these natural sinks are vulnerable to climate and land-use change and are highly likely to take up less CO2 in future.
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › … › Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment › Key messages
Understanding climate change — key message 3: The extent of Arctic summer sea ice has declined by about 10 % per decade since 1979. The extent of the minimum ice cover in September 2007 was half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1950s; the third lowest minimum extent occurred in September 2010. The summer ice is also getting thinner and younger.
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › … › Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment › Key messages
Understanding climate change — key message 4: Observed global mean sea level rise has accelerated over the past 15 years. From 2002 to 2009 the contributions of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise increased. In 2007 the IPCC projected a sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.59 m above the 1990 level by 2100 excluding the effects of dynamic ice sheet processes. Recent projections show a maximum increase of about 1.0 m by 2100, while higher values up to 2.0 m cannot be excluded.
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › … › Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment › Key messages
Understanding climate change — key message 5: The vast majority of glaciers in Europe are in retreat. Glaciers in the Alps lost about two-thirds of their volume between 1850 and 2009. The glacierised area in the Alps is projected to decrease to about one-third of the present area for a further rise in Alpine summer temperature of 2 °C.
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › … › Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment › Key messages
Understanding climate change — key message 6: Recent research suggests that several key components of the climate system could undergo irreversible change at significantly lower levels of global temperature increase than previously assessed. The most important of these “tipping elements” for Europe are the Greenland ice sheet, Alpine glaciers, and Arctic sea ice.
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › … › Understanding climate change — SOER 2010 thematic assessment › Key messages
Mitigating climate change — key message 1: The EU emitted close to 5 billion tonnes (Gt) of CO2-equivalents in 2008. It contributes today around 12 % of annual global anthropogenic direct greenhouse gas emissions.
Located in The European environment – state and outlook 2010 › … › Mitigating climate change - SOER 2010 thematic assessment › Key messages
Sea-level changes in Europe October 1992-May 2007: Based on satellite data; trends in mm/year, inverted barometer included, seasonal signal removed
Located in Data and maps › Maps and graphs