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Projections of extreme temperatures as represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C)
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Maps show changes in extreme temperature for two future periods, relative to 1961-1990. Extreme temperatures are represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C). All projections are the average of 5 Regional Climate Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-90, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Fischer and Schär, 2010).
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published May 2011
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Global
The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase between 1850 and 2010 was 0.81 0 C using combined UK Met Office Hadley centre and University of East Anglia - Climate Research Unit HadCRUT3 dataset compared to the 1850 - 1899 period average temperature and 0.89 0 C using Goddard Institute for Space Studies - GISS dataset compared to the 1880 - 1899 period average temperature. All used temperature records show the 2000s decade (2001 - 2010) was the warmest decade. For the HadCRUT3 and GISS datasets the rate of the global average has increased from around 0.06 0 C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.18 - 0.22 0 C in last decade.
The best estimates for projected global warming in this century are a further rise in the global average temperature from 1.8 to 4.0 0 C for different scenarios that assume no further/additional action to limit emissions. The EU global temperature target is projected to be exceeded between 2040 and 2060, taking into account all six IPCC scenarios.
Europe
Europe has warmed more than the global average. The average temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2001 - 2010) was 1.2 °C above the 1850 - 1899 average, and for the combined land and ocean area 1.0 °C above. Considering the land area, 8 out of the last 13 years were among the warmest years since 1850. High-temperature extremes like hot days, tropical nights, and heat waves have become more frequent, while low - temperature extremes (e.g. cold spells, frost days) have become less frequent in Europe. The average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled over the period 1850 to 2010 and the frequency of hot days almost tripled. The annual average temperature in Europe is projected to rise in this century with the largest warming over eastern and northern Europe in winter, and over Southern Europe in summer. High temperature events across Europe including temperature extremes such as heat waves are projected to become more frequent, intense and longer this century, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes are projected to decrease further. According to the projections, the most affected European regions are going to be the Iberian and the Apennine Peninsula and south - eastern Europe.
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Global and European temperature
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (CSI 013) - Assessment published Nov 2010
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The global average concentrations of various greenhouse
gasses in the atmosphere reached their highest levels ever recorded, and
continue increasing. The combustion of fossil fuels from human activities and
land-use changes are largely responsible for this increase. The concentration in 2008 of the six greenhouse
gases (GHG) included in the Kyoto Protocol has reached 438 ppm CO 2
equivalent, which is an increase of 160 ppm compared to the pre-industrial
level. Considering all GHGs (incl. ozone and various cooling aerosols),
the concentration has reached a value of 399 ppm CO 2 equivalents
in 2008, which is 121 ppm higher than in pre-industrial times. The
concentration of CO 2 -the most important greenhouse gas- has
reached in 2008 a level of 385 ppm, and in 2009 387 ppm. This is an
increase of nearly 110 ppm compared to the pre-industrial level. Without climate policy, the overall concentration
of the six Kyoto gasses is projected to increase up to 638-1360 ppm CO 2
-equivalent by 2100, whereas the concentration of all GHGs may increase up
to 608-1535 ppm CO 2 -equivalent. The global atmospheric GHG concentration
of 450 ppm CO 2 -equivalent could already become exceeded up 2015
(depending on climate policy and definitions)
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
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Glaciers (CLIM 007) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Since 1850, glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume, with clear acceleration since the 1980s. Glacier retreat is projected to continue. A 3 o C increase in average summer air temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the European Alps by some 80 %. With continuing climate change nearly all the smaller glaciers and one third of the overall glacier area in Norway are projected to disappear by 2100. Glacier retreat has serious consequences for river flow. It affects freshwater supply, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It could cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
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Glaciers
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Global and European temperature (CSI 012/CLIM 001) - Assessment published Jun 2010
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Global The global (land and ocean) average temperature increase between 1850 and 2009 was 0.74 0 C using combined Hadley centre and CRU datasets compared to the 1850 - 1899 period average temperature and 0.84 0 C using GISS dataset compared to the 1880 - 1899 period average temperature. All used temperature records show the 2000s decade (2000 - 2009) was the warmest decade. The rate of global average temperature change has increased from around 0.06 0 C per decade over last 100 years, to 0.16 - 0.20 0 C in last decade. The best estimates for projected global warming in this century are a further rise in the global average temperature from 1.8 to 4.0 0 C for different scenarios that assume no further/additional action to limit emissions. The EU global temperature target is projected to be exceeded between 2040 and 2060, taking into account all six IPCC scenarios. Europe Europe has warmed more than the global average. The annual average temperature for the European land area up to 2009 was 1.3 0 C above 1850 - 1899 average temperature, and for the combined land and ocean area 1 0 C above. Considering the land area, nine out of the last 12 years were among the warmest years since 1850. High-temperature extremes like hot days, tropical nights, and heat waves have become more frequent, while low - temperature extremes (e.g. cold spells, frost days) have become less frequent in Europe. The average length of summer heat waves over Western Europe doubled over the period 1850 to 2009 and the frequency of hot days almost tripled. The annual average temperature in Europe is projected to rise in this century with the largest warming over eastern and northern Europe in winter, and over Southern Europe in summer. High temperature events across Europe including temperature extremes such as heat waves are projected to become more frequent, intense and longer this century, whereas winter temperature variability and the number of cold and frost extremes are projected to decrease further. According to the projections, the most affected European regions are going to be the Iberian and the Apennine Peninsula and south - eastern Europe.
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Global and European temperature
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Sea level rise (CLIM 012) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Global average sea level rose by around 0.17 m (1.7 mm/year) during the 20th century. In Europe rates of sea-level rise (SLR) ranged from - 0.3 mm/year to 2.8 mm/year. Recent results from satellites and tide gauges indicate a higher average rate of global SLR in the past 15 years of about 3.1 mm/year. Projections by the IPCC for the end of the 21st century suggest an additional SLR of 0.18 to 0.59 m above the average 1980-2000 level. Based on the latest observations, recent projections indicate a future SLR that may exceed the IPCC upper limit. SLR can cause flooding, coastal erosion and the loss of flat and low-lying coastal regions. It increases the likelihood of storm surges, enforces landward intrusion of salt water and endangers coastal ecosystems and wetlands. An additional 1.6 million people living in Europe's coastal zones could experience coastal flooding by 2080.
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Sea level rise
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Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100
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Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
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Observed global fossil fuel CO2 emissions compared with six scenarios from the IPCC
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IPCC scenarios shown are from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC, 2000). Past emission data are from the Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA)
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Observed and projected global mean surface temperatures from 1900, for three IPCC scenarios and the 'Year 2000 constant concentration' pathway
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If global greenhouse gas emissions would not be reduced, the 2°C target will be exceeded towards the middle of the 21st century. The horizontal 2°C target line takes into account warming of about 0.6 °C from pre-industrial to 1990. “Likely” ranges in average 2090-2099 warming for all six IPCC scenarios are shown on the right
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Observed and projected change in sea level 1970–2008, relative to the sea level in 1990
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The solid lines are based on observations smoothed to remove the effects of interannual variability (light lines connect data points). Data in most recent years are obtained via satellite based sensors. The envelope of IPCC (2001) projections is shown for comparison; this includes the broken lines as individual projections and the shading as the uncertainty around the projections.
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