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State and trend of fire danger
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Fire danger is expressed by the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR). Daily severity values can be averaged over the fire season using the SSR index, which allows objective comparison of fire danger from year to year and from region to region. The coarse scale of the map does not allow accounting for specific conditions of given sites, as for example in the Alpine region, where the complex topography may strongly affect local fire danger.
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Projected distribution of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments by impact type and European region
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Projected distribution of economic costs from climate change and socio-economic developments by impact type and European region. EU-27 only; A1B scenario, 2070–2100, combined effects of climate change and socio-economic change
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Forest fires (CLIM 035) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Fire risk depends on many factors, including climatic conditions, vegetation (e.g. fuel load and condition), forest management practices and other socio-economic factors.
The number of fires in the Mediterranean region has increased over the period from 1980 to 2000; it has decreased thereafter.
In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather and an expansion of the fire-prone area and longer fire seasons, as a consequence, are projected, but with considerable regional variation.
The impact of fire events is particularly strong in southern Europe on already degraded ecosystems.
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Forest fires
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AGRI_F03: Gross nutrient balance - outlook from EEA (Outlook 020) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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Nutrient surpluses are expected to be moderately reduced in 2020. Best practices for fertilizer handling could significantly reduce the environmental pressures which are associated with nutrient balances.
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AGRI_F03: Gross nutrient balance - outlook from EEA
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APE_F01: Emissions of acidifying substances - outlook from LRTAP (Outlook 002) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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On the basis of existing policies and measures, emissions of almost all acidifying substances (NOx, NMVOC, SO2) of land-based air pollutants are expected to decline significantly (by 47% for NOx emissions, by 45% for NMVOCs, by 67% for SO2) up to 2030. In contrast, NH3 emissions will decline slightly (by 6%). Hence, the EU as a whole is expected to comply with the 2010 targets of the national emission ceilings directive. However, while a number of Member States are well below their binding upper national emission ceilings, others are not on track. The implementation of all feasible technical measures (best available technologies) is estimated to offer a considerable potential for further reductions in the emissions.
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APE_F01: Emissions of acidifying substances - outlook from LRTAP
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APE_F02: Emissions of acidifying substances - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 018) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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In developed countries efforts have been underway for decades to reduce acidifying substances (NOx). There is a progress in reducing total NOx. Emissions per vehicle kilometer for light-duty vehicles have been substantially reduced. But growth in transport activity and problems in controlling in-use emissions have tended to offset some of the hoped-for improvements. The situation regarding acidifying substances in the transition countries (EECCA and SEE) (especially its rapidly-growing urbanized areas) is somewhat different. Although NOx is expected to be reduced it will not happen as easily or as quickly as desired.
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APE_F02: Emissions of acidifying substances - outlook from WBCSD
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APE_F03: Emissions of ozone precursors - outlook from LRTAP (Outlook 003) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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On the basis of existing policies and measures, emissions of ozone precursors (NOx) of land-based air pollutants are expected to decline significantly (by 47% for NOx emissions) up to 2030. Hence, the EU as a whole is expected to comply with the 2010 targets of the national emission ceilings directive. However, while a number of Member States are well below their binding upper national emission ceilings, others are not on track. The implementation of all feasible technical measures (best available technologies) is estimated to offer a considerable potential for further reductions in the emissions.
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APE_F03: Emissions of ozone precursors - outlook from LRTAP
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APE_F04: Emissions of ozone precursors - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 006) - Assessment published Jun 2009
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In developed countries efforts have been underway for decades to reduce ozone precursors (NOx, CO). There is a progress in reducing total NOx and CO emissions. Emissions per vehicle kilometer for light-duty vehicles have been substantially reduced. But growth in transport activity and problems in controlling in-use emissions have tended to offset some of the hoped-for improvements. The situation regarding ozone precursors in the transition countries (Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia and South Eastern Europe), especially in rapidly-growing urbanized areas, is somewhat different. Although NOx and CO emissions is expected to be reduced it will not happen as easily or as quickly as desired.
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APE_F04: Emissions of ozone precursors - outlook from WBCSD
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Car ownership - outlook from WBCSD (Outlook 056) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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If present policies and technological trends continue*, passenger transport will continue to grow worldwide, but more rapidly in the fast-growing economies of Eastern Europe, China and India. The car ownership rates are also expected to increase significantly. (Assessment is created in 2007) * Projections are based on the reference case scenario. The reference case projects one possible set of future conditions, based on recent trends. Adjustments are made for expected deviations from recent trends due to factors such as existing policies, population projections (UNSTAT), income projections (IEA) and expected availability of new technologies. Expectations of other future changes in trends, such as saturation of vehicle ownership, are also incorporated. In general, no major new policies are assumed to be implemented beyond those already implemented in 2003, and no major technological breakthroughs. http://www.wbcsd.org/web/publications/mobility/smp-model-document.pdf
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Car ownership - outlook from WBCSD
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CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA (Outlook 031) - Assessment published Jun 2007
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The RAINS* model provides information about the projections for the methane emissions. For the "current legislation" scenario a continued increase of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions is expected, leading to 35 percent increase in 2030 as compared to 2000. CH4 emissions from all sectors are expected to grow due to increased economic activities and absence of wide-spread emission control measures. In Western Europe and Newly Independent states overall CH4 emissions will only slightly increase. If all maximum technically feasible reductions (MFR scenario) were applied to the full extent, global CH4 emissions would stabilize up to 2030, though at considerable costs. Under the MFR scenario CH4 emissions in Western Europe and Newly Independent states would be able to decrease on 31% and 16% relatively.
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CC_F03: GHG emissions - outlook from IIASA
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