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Arctic sea ice (CLIM 010) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The extent of the sea ice in the Arctic has declined at an accelerating rate, especially in summer. The record low ice cover in September 2007 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1950s. The summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear at the height of the summer melt season in the coming decades. There will still be substantial ice in winter. Reduced polar ice will speed up global warming and is expected to affect ocean circulation and weather patterns. Species specialised for life in the ice are threatened. Less ice will ease access to the Arctic's resources. Oil and gas exploration, shipping, tourism and fisheries will offer new economic opportunities, but also increase pressures and risks to the Arctic environment.
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Arctic sea ice
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Arctic and Baltic Sea ice (CLIM 010) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The extent and volume of the Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly since global data became available in 1980, especially in summer. Record low sea ice cover in September 2007, 2011 and 2012 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1980s.
In the period 1979-2011, the Arctic has lost on average 45 000 km 2 of sea ice per year in winter and 91 000 km 2 per year at the end of summer. The decline in summer sea ice appears to have accelerated since 1999.
Arctic Sea ice is projected to continue to shrink in extent and thickness and may even disappear at the end of the summer melt season in the coming decades. There will still be substantial ice in winter.
Baltic Sea ice, in particular the extent of the maximal cover, is projected to shrink.
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Arctic and Baltic Sea ice
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Area of multi-year Arctic sea ice in March 1957-2007
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Note: The area of thick, multi-year sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is decreasing
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Average extent of arctic sea ice in March and September 1979-2007
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Arctic sea ice grows to its greatest yearly size in March and melts to its lowest size in September
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The 2007 minimum sea-ice extent
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Note: The extent of the summer sea ice in September 2007 reached a historical minimum, 39 % below the climatic average for the first two decades of satellite observations (red line)
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Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent 1900-2100
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Note: The retreat of the sea ice has been faster than predicted: Arctic September sea-ice extent from observations (thick orange line) together with the mean value (solid grey line) from 13 IPCC AR4 climate models and the variance (dotted black line) of models runs.
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