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Projected changes in water-limited crop yield
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This figure shows the mean relative changes in water-limited crop yield simulated by the ClimateCrop model for the 2050s compared with 1961–1990 for 12 different climate models projections under the A1B emission scenario.
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Projected change in water availability for irrigation in the Mediterranean region
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This figure shows the relative change in water availability for irrigation as projected under the A1B emission scenario by the HIRHAM (DMI) regional climate model for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990. Light yellow areas indicate no change in water availability.
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Projected changes in effective solar radiation from two climate models
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The map shows the mean changes in effective solar radiation (MJ m-2), which is an indicator for water-limited crop productivity, for the period 2031–2050 compared with 1975–1994 for the RACMO (KNMI) and HadRCM3 (Hadley Centre.HC) projections under the A1B emission scenario.
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Rate of change of the meteorological water balance
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This figure shows the rate of change of the ‘water balance’.
The map provides an estimate increase (red in map) or decrease (blue in map) of the volume of water required from irrigation assuming that all other factors are unchanged and given that there is an irrigation demand.
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Expected average percentage of stable area of 856 plant species for two different climate scenarios
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The figure shows the expected average percentage of stable area of 856 plant species for two different climate scenarios by 2100. The S550e scenario corresponds to a stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent and a global mean temperature increase of 2°C, the baseline scenario corresponds to a global mean temperature increase of more than 3°C.
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Projected changes in mammalian species richness
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Projected changes in in mammalian species richness by 2100 under emissions scenarios B1 (left) and A2 (right) in a 10’ resolution.
Units in percentage.
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Projected spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly and its host plants
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This figure shows spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly (Euchloe tagis) and its host plants under the BAMBU scenario (climate: A2) for 2050-2080. Green, suitable climate space for the host plants;orange, suitable climate space for the butterfly; red, suitable area for both butterfly and host plants; open circles, currently observed distribution. BAMBU: Business-As-Might-Be-Usual scenario.
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Projected changes in the climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell
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This figure shows the future distribution of climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell (Aglais urticae) under the A2 climate change scenario and two future time periods (2021-2050 left, 2051-2080 right). Dark grey areas show space that remains suitable, magenta areas space that is lost and green areas show space that could be gained under full dispersal. Northern parts of Europe are expected to remain suitable for the Small Tortoiseshell under all scenarios, but large areas of central Europe would become unsuitable. The worst case loss is 55% of its climatic niche by 2080 under no dispersal or 46% loss under full dispersal.
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European variations in the temporal trend of bird and butterfly community temperature index
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The map shows the temporal trend of bird and butterfly CTI for each country. A temporal increase in CTI directly reflects that the species assemblage of the site is increasingly composed of individuals belonging to species dependent on higher temperature. The height of a given arrow is proportional to the temporal trend and its direction corresponds to the sign of the slope (from south to north for positive slopes). The arrow is opaque if the trend is significant.
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Trends in spring phenology in Europe
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This figure shows the spring trends of phenology 1971-2000 grouped by their mean onset date. Each dot represents a station. Dot size adjusted for clarity. A negative phenological trend corresponds to an earlier onset of spring.
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