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Damages from weather and climate-related events (CLIM 039) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Hydro-meteorological events (storms, floods, and landslides) account for 64 % of the reported damages due to natural disasters in Europe since 1980; climatological events (extreme temperatures; droughts and forest fires) account for another 20 %.
Overall damages from extreme weather events have increased from EUR 9 billion in the 1980s to more than EUR 13 billion in the 2000s (inflation-corrected).
The observed damage increase is primarily due to increases in population, economic wealth and human activities in hazard-prone areas and to better reporting.
It is currently difficult to determine accurately the proportion of damage costs that are attributable to climate change. The contribution of climate change to the damage costs from natural disasters is expected to increase due to the projected changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.
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Damages from weather and climate-related events
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Heating degree days (CLIM 047) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The number of heating degree days (HDD) has decreased by an average of 16 per year since 1980. This helps reduce the demand for heating, particularly in northern and north-western Europe.
Climate change will affect future energy and electricity demand. Climate change is not expected to change total energy demand in Europe substantially across Europe, but there may be significant seasonal effects, with large regional differences.
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Heating degree days
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Irrigation water requirement (CLIM 033) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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In the Iberian Peninsula and Italy, an increase in the volume of water required for irrigation from 1975 to 2010 has been estimated, whereas parts of south-eastern Europe have recorded a decrease.
The projected increases in temperature will lead to increased evapotranspiration rates, thereby increasing crop water requirements across Europe.
The impact of increasing water requirements is expected to be most acute in southern Europe, where the suitability for rain-fed agriculture is projected to decrease and irrigation requirements are projected to increase.
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Irrigation water requirement
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Water-limited crop productivity (CLIM 032) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Yields of several crops (e.g. wheat) are stagnating, whereas yields of other crops (e.g. maize in north Europe) are increasing; both effects are partly due to the observed climatic warming.
Extreme climatic events, including droughts and heat waves, have negatively affected crop productivity during the first decade of the 21st century, and this is expected to further increase yield variability under climate change.
Crop yields will be affected by the combined effects of changes in temperature, rainfall and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Future climate change can lead to yield decreases or increases, depending on crop type and with considerable regional differences across Europe.
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Water-limited crop productivity
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Soil organic carbon (CLIM 027) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Soil carbon stocks in the EU-27 are around 75 billion tonnes of carbon; around 50 % of which is located in Ireland, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom (because of the large area of peatlands in these countries).
The largest emissions of CO 2 from soils are due to conversion (drainage) of organic soils, and amount to 20–40 tonnes of CO 2 per hectare per year. The most effective option to manage soil carbon in order to mitigate climate change is to preserve existing stocks in soils, and especially the large stocks in peat and other soils with a high content of organic carbon.
On average, soils in Europe are most likely to be accumulating carbon. Soils under grassland and forests are a carbon sink (estimated up to 80 million tonnes of carbon per year) whereas soils under arable land are a smaller carbon source (estimated from 10–40 million tonnes of carbon per year).
The effects of climate change on soil organic carbon and soil respiration are complex, and depend on distinct climatic and biotic drivers. However, they lack rigorous supporting datasets.
Climate change is expected to have an impact on soil carbon in the long term, but changes in the short term will more likely be driven by land management practices and land use change
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Soil organic carbon
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Distribution of marine species (CLIM 015) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Increases in regional sea temperatures have triggered a major northward expansion of warmer-water plankton in the North-east Atlantic and a northward retreat of colder-water plankton. This northerly movement is about 10 ° latitude (1 100 km) over the past 40 years, and it seems to have accelerated since 2000.
Sub-tropical species are occurring with increasing frequency in European waters, and sub-Arctic species are receding northwards.
Further changes in the distribution of marine species are expected, with projected further climate change, but quantitative projections are not available.
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Distribution of marine species
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Potential environmental and economic impact of climate change
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(Environmental) Combined potential impacts of changes in summer and winter precipitation, heavy rainfall days, annual mean temperature, summer days, frost days, snow cover days and annual mean evaporation on soil erosion, soil organic carbon content, protected natural areas and forest fire sensitivity.
(Economic) Combined potential impacts of changes in annual mean evaporation, summer days, snow cover days, frost days, changes in inundation heights of a 100 year river flood event and a sea level rise adjusted 100 year coastal storm surge event on agriculture, forestry, summer and winter tourism, energy supply and demand.
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Potential aggregate impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability
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Overall impacts derived from 26 impact indicators, overall adaptive capacity from 15 individual indicators, and overall vulnerability from a combination of overall impacts and adaptive capacity.
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Potential physical, cultural and social impact of climate change
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(Physical) Combined potential impacts of changes in inundation heights of a 100 year river flood event and a sea level rise adjusted 100 year coastal storm surge event and changes in flash flood potential on settlements, major roads, railways, airports, harbours, thermal power stations and refineries.
(Social) Combined potential impacts of changes in inundation heights of a 100 year river flood event and a sea level rise adjusted 100 year coastal storm surge event as well as changes in flash flood potential and summer heat on population.
(Cultural) Combined potential impacts of changes in inundation heights of a 100 year river flood event and a sea level rise adjusted 100 year coastal storm surge event on registered World Heritage sites and museums.
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Annual water stress for present conditions and projections for two scenarios
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Left: present climate; middle: projection for 2050 based on Economy First scenario, median of general circulation models — regional climate models (GCM-RCM) combinations;
right: projection for 2050 based on Sustainability Eventually scenario, median of GCM-RCM combinations.
Yellow: low water stress (withdrawals-to-availability ratio: 0–0.2);
orange: mild water stress (withdrawals-to-availability ratio: 0.2–0.4);
red: severe water stress (withdrawals-to-availability ratio: > 0.4).
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