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Soil organic carbon (CLIM 027) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Soil carbon stocks in the EU-27 are around 75 billion tonnes of carbon; around 50 % of which is located in Ireland, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom (because of the large area of peatlands in these countries).
The largest emissions of CO 2 from soils are due to conversion (drainage) of organic soils, and amount to 20–40 tonnes of CO 2 per hectare per year. The most effective option to manage soil carbon in order to mitigate climate change is to preserve existing stocks in soils, and especially the large stocks in peat and other soils with a high content of organic carbon.
On average, soils in Europe are most likely to be accumulating carbon. Soils under grassland and forests are a carbon sink (estimated up to 80 million tonnes of carbon per year) whereas soils under arable land are a smaller carbon source (estimated from 10–40 million tonnes of carbon per year).
The effects of climate change on soil organic carbon and soil respiration are complex, and depend on distinct climatic and biotic drivers. However, they lack rigorous supporting datasets.
Climate change is expected to have an impact on soil carbon in the long term, but changes in the short term will more likely be driven by land management practices and land use change
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Soil organic carbon
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Distribution of marine species (CLIM 015) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Increases in regional sea temperatures have triggered a major northward expansion of warmer-water plankton in the North-east Atlantic and a northward retreat of colder-water plankton. This northerly movement is about 10 ° latitude (1 100 km) over the past 40 years, and it seems to have accelerated since 2000.
Sub-tropical species are occurring with increasing frequency in European waters, and sub-Arctic species are receding northwards.
Further changes in the distribution of marine species are expected, with projected further climate change, but quantitative projections are not available.
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Distribution of marine species
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Phenology of marine species (CLIM 014) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Temperature increases in the ocean have caused many marine organisms in European seas to appear earlier in their seasonal cycles than in the past. Some plankton species have advanced their seasonal cycle by 4–6 weeks in recent decades.
Projections of the phenological responses of individual species are not available, but phenological changes are expected to continue with projected further climate change.
Changes in the plankton phenology have important consequences for other organisms within an ecosystem and ultimately for the structure of marine food webs at all trophic levels. Potential consequences include increased vulnerability of North Sea cod stocks to over-fishing and changes in seabird populations.
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Phenology of marine species
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Sea surface temperature (CLIM 013) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Sea surface temperature in European seas is increasing more rapidly than in the global oceans.
The rate of increase in sea surface temperature in all European seas during the past 25 years is the largest ever measured in any previous 25-year period. It has been about 10 times faster than the average rate of increase during the past century and beyond.
Global sea surface temperature is projected to rise more slowly than atmospheric temperature.
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Sea surface temperature
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Ocean acidification (CLIM 043) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Surface-ocean pH has declined from 8.2 to 8.1 over the industrial era due to the growth of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This decline corresponds to a 30 % change in oceanic acidity.
Observed reductions in surface-water pH are nearly identical across the global ocean and throughout Europe’s seas.
Ocean acidification in recent decades is occurring a hundred times faster than during past natural events over the last 55 million years.
Ocean acidification already reaches into the deep ocean, particularly in the high latitudes.
Average surface-water pH is projected to decline further to 7.7 or 7.8 by the year 2100, depending on future CO 2 emissions. This decline represents a 100 to 150 % increase in acidity.
Ocean acidification may affect many marine organisms within the next 20 years and could alter marine ecosystems and fisheries.
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Ocean acidification
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Species interactions (CLIM 026) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Climate change is affecting the interaction of species that depend on each other for food or other reasons. It can disrupt established interactions but also generate novel ones.
Negative effects on single species are often amplified by changes in interactions with other species, in particular for specialist species.
The impact of species interactions on ecosystems services depends on whether disrupted interactions can be buffered by system-intrinsic properties or by novel organisms.
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Species interactions
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Distribution and abundance of animal species (CLIM 024) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Observed climate change is having significant impacts on European fauna. These impacts include range shifts as well as local and regional extinctions of species.
There is a clear poleward trend of butterfly distributions from 1990 to 2007 in Europe. Nevertheless, the migration of many species is lagging behind the changes in climate, suggesting that they are unable to keep pace with the speed of climate change.
Distribution changes are projected to continue. Suitable climatic conditions for Europe’s breeding birds are projected to shift nearly 550 km north-east by the end of the 21st century under a scenario of 3 °C warming, with the average range size shrinking by 20 %.
Habitat use and fragmentation and other obstacles are impeding the migration of many animal species. The difference between required and actual migration rate may lead to a progressive decline in European biodiversity.
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Distribution and abundance of animal species
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Water temperature (CLIM 019) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Water temperatures in major European rivers have increased by 1–3 °C over the last century. Several time series show increasing lake and river temperatures all over Europe over the last 60 to 90 years.
Lake and river surface water temperatures are projected to increase with further projected increases in air temperature.
Increased temperature can result in marked changes in species composition and functioning of aquatic ecosystems.
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Water temperature
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Distribution of plant species (CLIM 022) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Several European plant species have shifted their distribution northward and uphill. These changes have been linked to observed climate change, in particular to milder winters.
Mountain ecosystems in many parts of Europe are changing as plant species expand uphill and cold-adapted species are projected to lose climatically suitable areas.
By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and about half of the mountain plant species may face extinction.
The rate of climate change is expected to exceed the ability of many plant species to migrate, especially as landscape fragmentation may restrict movement.
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Distribution of plant species
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Animal phenology (CLIM 025) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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Many animal groups have advanced their life-cycles in recent decades, including frogs spawning, birds nesting and the arrival of migrant birds and butterflies. This advancement is attributed primarily to a warming climate.
The breeding season of many thermophilic insects (such as butterflies, dragonflies and bark beetles) has been lengthening, allowing more generations to be produced per year.
The observed trends are expected to continue in the future but quantitative projections are rather uncertain.
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Animal phenology
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