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Arctic and Baltic Sea ice (CLIM 010) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The extent and volume of the Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly since global data became available in 1980, especially in summer. Record low sea ice cover in September 2007, 2011 and 2012 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1980s.
In the period 1979-2011, the Arctic has lost on average 45 000 km 2 of sea ice per year in winter and 91 000 km 2 per year at the end of summer. The decline in summer sea ice appears to have accelerated since 1999.
Arctic Sea ice is projected to continue to shrink in extent and thickness and may even disappear at the end of the summer melt season in the coming decades. There will still be substantial ice in winter.
Baltic Sea ice, in particular the extent of the maximal cover, is projected to shrink.
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Arctic and Baltic Sea ice
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Arctic sea ice (CLIM 010) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The extent of the sea ice in the Arctic has declined at an accelerating rate, especially in summer. The record low ice cover in September 2007 was roughly half the size of the normal minimum extent in the 1950s. The summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear at the height of the summer melt season in the coming decades. There will still be substantial ice in winter. Reduced polar ice will speed up global warming and is expected to affect ocean circulation and weather patterns. Species specialised for life in the ice are threatened. Less ice will ease access to the Arctic's resources. Oil and gas exploration, shipping, tourism and fisheries will offer new economic opportunities, but also increase pressures and risks to the Arctic environment.
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Arctic sea ice
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Coastal areas (CLIM 041) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Coastal flooding can lead to important losses. By 2100, the population in the main coastal European cities exposed to sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems is expected to be about 4 million and the exposed assets more than EUR 2 trillion (without adaptation). Future projections of sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems show potentially large increases in the risk of coastal flooding. These could have significant economic costs (without adaptation), with recent estimates in the range of 12 to 18 billion EUR/year for Europe in 2080 under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. The same estimates indicate that adaptation could significantly reduce this risk to around EUR 1 billion.
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Coastal areas
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Crop-yield variability (CLIM 032) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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Climate and its variability are largely responsible for variations in crop suitability and productivity in Europe. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of 2007. As a consequence of climatic change, such events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, and crop yields to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land management can act as risk-mitigating measures.
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Crop-yield variability
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Decapod abundance in the central North Sea 1950-2005
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Left: year vs
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Glaciers (CLIM 007) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume since 1850, with clear acceleration since the 1980s.
Glacier retreat is expected to continue in the future. The volume of European glaciers has been estimated to decline between 22 and 66 % compared to the current situation by 2100 under a business-as-usual emission scenario.
Glacier retreat contributes to sea-level rise and it affects freshwater supply and run off regimes, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It may also cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
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Glaciers
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Glaciers (CLIM 007) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Since 1850, glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume, with clear acceleration since the 1980s. Glacier retreat is projected to continue. A 3 o C increase in average summer air temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the European Alps by some 80 %. With continuing climate change nearly all the smaller glaciers and one third of the overall glacier area in Norway are projected to disappear by 2100. Glacier retreat has serious consequences for river flow. It affects freshwater supply, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. It could cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
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Glaciers
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Greenland ice sheet (CLIM 009) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The Greenland ice sheet is the largest body of ice in the Northern Hemisphere and plays an important role in the cryosphere. It changed in the 1990s from being in near mass balance to losing about 100 billion tonnes of ice per year. Ice losses have since then more than doubled to 250 billion tonnes a year averaged over 2005 to 2009.
The contribution of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise is estimated at 0.14–0.28 mm/year for the period 1993–2003 and has since increased. The recent melting of the Greenland ice sheet is estimated to have contributed up to 0.7 mm a year to sea-level rise, which is approximately one quarter of the total sea-level rise of about 3.1 mm/year.
Model projections suggest further declines of the Greenland ice sheet in the future but the processes determining the rate of change are still poorly understood.
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Greenland ice sheet
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Greenland ice sheet (CLIM 009) - Assessment published Sep 2008
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The Greenland ice sheet changed in the 1990s from being in near mass balance to losing about 100 billion tonnes of ice per year. Ice losses may have doubled again by 2005. Accelerated flow of outlet glaciers to the sea accounts for more of the ice loss than melting. The contribution of ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise is estimated at 0.14-0.28 mm/year for the period 1993-2003 and has since increased. In the long term, melting ice sheets have the largest potential to increase sea level. No reliable predictions of the future of the ice sheets can yet be made; the processes causing the faster movement of the glaciers are poorly understood and there is a lack of long-term observations.
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Greenland ice sheet
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Lake and river ice cover (CLIM 020) - Assessment published Nov 2012
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The existence of ice cover and the timing of ice break-up influence the vertical mixing of lakes and are therefore of critical ecological importance.
The duration of ice cover on European lakes and rivers has shortened at a mean rate of 12 days per century over the last 150–200 years.
A further decrease in the duration of lake ice cover is projected with projected climate change.
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Lake and river ice cover
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